Post by Robert Waller on Jul 18, 2023 20:15:01 GMT
Whoever would have thought that Esher and Walton might be one of – perhaps the – most likely Liberal Democrat gain(s) from the Conservatives in the forthcoming general election? In 2019 their candidate Monica Harding cut the majority of Cabinet Minister Dominic Raab to a mere 2,743 with a swing of over 18%. The Conservative majority just two years before had been 23,298 – over Labour, with the Liberal Democrats in third place. Consisting largely of parts of the extremely affluent Surrey ‘stockbroker belt’, no part of the seat had ever elected anything other than a Conservative to Parliament under the universal franchise.
Since 2019 the Liberal Democrats have shown they can translate this progress from a one off to make heavy gains from the local Tories in the Elmbridge council elections of May 2022 and May 2023. Perhaps in the light of the direction this hurricane was blowing, Dominic Raab announced in late May of the latter year that he would not contest the seat again. John Cope, the 34 year old leader of the Elmbridge Conservative group (now very much a minority), a councillor for Walton South, was selected in July 2023 as the new parliamentary candidate. It would now rank as a major surprise, though, if Ms Harding did not become the next MP for Esher and Walton. What has caused this transformation?
The Lib Dems clearly undertook a massive targeting operation in Esher & Walton in the 2019 general election, deluging the leafy avenues with supportive stakeboards and posters, along with over half a dozen separate mailshots, and two visits from the current party leader Jo Swinson. The motivation for this optimism was twofold. One concerned the key issue of the 2019 campaign, Brexit. The thinking here was that this highly educated constituency had voted in the 2016 referendum by around 58% to remain in the EU – so, unlike the leader of the Conservative party, a majority might not want ‘to get Brexit done’. The second element had a touch of the ‘decapitation strategy’ about it, as the MP here since 2010 was Mr Raab, the Foreign Secretary and Brexiteer. During the most recent campaign, he was subjected to personal attacks, including over the case of the young man killed in a hit and run accident by the wife of an American diplomat.
The local election ward results have generally in the past not been such a good guide to the distribution of party strength within the seat as often they can be, as the local Elmbridge Council traditionally saw a hard fought contest for control between the Conservatives and a concatenation of local residents groups such as the Walton Society and the Residents Associations in Molesey, Hinchley Wood and Thames Ditton. The Liberal Democrats traditionally had strength only in the villagey Claygate and Long Ditton and parts of Weybridge, which is in Runnymede & Weybridge constituency and not included in this seat despite it being in the Elmbridge council area. Some evidence from those observing the count suggested that they also excelled in the general election in Thames Ditton and East Molesey, which are just across the river from their Twickenham stronghold, and along it from their Kingston & Surbiton stronghold - and also have a very high proportion of university graduates. This would fit with the tendency of the Remain vote to be correlated with a high terminal education age.
Those teller observations in 2019 also suggest that the Tory vote may actually have held up better in the somewhat more ‘down-market’ parts of the constituency this time, such as West Molesey and Hersham, which include both industrial estates and social housing estates; and according to the age profile relating to Brexit they would certainly do very well in the retirement community of Whiteley Village. Labour have on occasion managed to win the odd ward at council level, but the last times they did were in 1999 when they took Walton North (which then included the Fieldcommon estate) and Molesey South (which no longer exists) and in 2000 (Hersham North). Labour were very heavily squeezed in the 2019 general election, from 19.7% all the way down to a deposit losing 4.5% - which actually accounts for more of the Liberal Democrat surge than the 9 point drop in Raab’s share. This is highly likely to happen again, even in a 2024 general election they may be winning nationally.Incidentally, there are other views on this; I offer a link in fairness, for people to make up their own minds ...
www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/calcwork23.py?seat=Esher+and+Walton
However in their surges in 2022, 2023 and 2024, the Liberal Democrats not only took Conservative council seats, but those of some localists as well. They have now won all three wards in Walton on Thames at least twice, including the ousting of Walton Society candidates, and the demographically friendly Molesey East from the Residents, both in a byelection in 2023 and in May 2024. They have twice won narrow contests in Hersham Village, thus making gains from the Conservatives. The Tories won only two wards in the whole borough in both May 2022 and 2023, the super affluent Oxshott/Stoke D’Abernon and Oatlands/Burwood Park. They also lost three contests in Cobham/Downside following a well publicised Liberal Democrat council byelection gain in July 2021, and subsequent retention and further success, though they held that ward in May 2024 - though it will no longer be in the Esher & Walton constituency at the next general election.
However in the parliamentary boundary changes that ward has been transferred to Runnymede & Weybridge, frustrating all the LD hard work to an extent. On the other hand, along with some realignments due to ward boundary changes, one of the two remaining Conservative wards, Oxshott & Stoke D’Abernon, also goes in the same direction. Oxshott (with its Crown Estate, whose residents include Sir Andy Murray) is very desirable and even more expensive, Stoke D’Abernon is smaller but attracts mainly East Asian fans to the location of the Chelsea FC training ground. The largest of these communities, Cobham, has something of an international flavour with its American School. In compensation, the other Conservative survivor in municipal contests, Oatlands & Burwood Park, travels in the other direction, coming in from Runnymede & Weybridge. This solution to the overly large electorate of the existing Esher & Walton was somewhat unexpected (at least by some of the political parties) and imaginative; the new shape of Runnymede and Weybridge looks logical on a map, but the only link between the two new wards and the rest of the seat is through the A3/A245 junction west of Cobham and east of Silvermere. Overall the changes are probably neutral in effect.
Esher and Walton new boundaries:
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/south-east/South%20East_316_Esher%20and%20Walton_Landscape.pdf
Runnymede and Weybridge new boundaries:
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/south-east/South%20East_356_Runnymede%20and%20Weybridge_Landscape.pdf
Esher and Walton constituency is prime commuting territory. It ranks in the top 10 out of the 576 newly drawn seats in England and Wales for professional and managerial workers in the most recent (2021) Census. It is still entirely contained within Elmbridge council, once named as the best place to live in the UK, Surrey’s ‘Beverly Hills’.
www.getsurrey.co.uk/news/local-news/elmbridge-named-best-place-live-4826566.
The largest communities are the rather diverse Walton on Thames and Molesey, which both contain a remarkable variety of housing types: in Walton for example the range is from the exclusive Ashley Park to the down-market if small St John’s social housing estate; East Molesey is regarded as much more desirable than West Molesey, with the modern development of Hurst Park (named after a former racecourse) in between. Hersham is also mixed, with a history of Labour against ‘Village Society’ – if not necessarily ‘village people’ - in its northern ward, but another gated private estate at Burwood Park in Hersham South. Now much of the former has been absorbed into Esher ward, leaving Labour with no chance even now. Esher, further east, has more of a posh-village feel as its sloping High Street, once the A3, rises past Sandown Park racecourse; although even Esher has a little known council estate at Lower Green, just on the other side of the railway tracks. Esher ward sees Conservative v. Residents group contests at municipal level. As mentioned, the Liberal Democrats' longest established strongholds in parliamentary terms are in the north eastern corner of the borough where it borders Greater London – the Dittons and Claygate (though in May 2024 their council leader Bruce McDonald was ousted in Claygate by a former LD councillor for the ward standing as an Independent).
The astonishing decline of the Conservatives in Esher & Walton shows that British elections no longer are necessarily simplistically and closely related to the variables of class, income and housing value – in short, to wealth. Issues matter, both the known ones such as the European Union and those as yet unpredictable. And that offers a wealth of possibilities, opportunities for all the competing parties, and much more interesting contests, around our varied and complex land.
2021 Census New Boundaries (ranks England and Wales)
Age 65+ 17.3% 362/575
Owner occupied 73.6% 86 /575
Private rented 16.2% 377/575
Social rented 10.2% 510 /575
White 86.2% 343/575
Black 1.2% 307/575
Asian 6.6% 229/575
Managerial & professional 50.2% 10/575
Routine & Semi-routine 12.5% 560/575
Degree level 51.6% 31/575
No qualifications 10.9% 552/575
Students 5.6% 282/575
General Election 2019: Esher and Walton
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Dominic Raab 31,132 49.4 -9.2
Liberal Democrats Monica Harding 28,389 45.0 +27.7
Labour Peter Ashurst 2,838 4.5 -15.2
Independent Kylie Keens 347 0.6 New
Monster Raving Loony Baron Badger 326 0.5 Steady 0.0
Advance Kyle Taylor 52 0.1 New
C Majority 2,743 4.4 -34.5
Turnout 63,084 77.7 +3.8
Conservative hold
Swing 18.5 C to LD
Boundary Changes
Esher and Walton consists of
83.8% of Esher and Walton
6.2% of Runnymede & Weybridge
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/south-east/South%20East_316_Esher%20and%20Walton_Landscape.pdf
2019 Notional Results on New Boundaries (Rallings and Thrasher)
Since 2019 the Liberal Democrats have shown they can translate this progress from a one off to make heavy gains from the local Tories in the Elmbridge council elections of May 2022 and May 2023. Perhaps in the light of the direction this hurricane was blowing, Dominic Raab announced in late May of the latter year that he would not contest the seat again. John Cope, the 34 year old leader of the Elmbridge Conservative group (now very much a minority), a councillor for Walton South, was selected in July 2023 as the new parliamentary candidate. It would now rank as a major surprise, though, if Ms Harding did not become the next MP for Esher and Walton. What has caused this transformation?
The Lib Dems clearly undertook a massive targeting operation in Esher & Walton in the 2019 general election, deluging the leafy avenues with supportive stakeboards and posters, along with over half a dozen separate mailshots, and two visits from the current party leader Jo Swinson. The motivation for this optimism was twofold. One concerned the key issue of the 2019 campaign, Brexit. The thinking here was that this highly educated constituency had voted in the 2016 referendum by around 58% to remain in the EU – so, unlike the leader of the Conservative party, a majority might not want ‘to get Brexit done’. The second element had a touch of the ‘decapitation strategy’ about it, as the MP here since 2010 was Mr Raab, the Foreign Secretary and Brexiteer. During the most recent campaign, he was subjected to personal attacks, including over the case of the young man killed in a hit and run accident by the wife of an American diplomat.
The local election ward results have generally in the past not been such a good guide to the distribution of party strength within the seat as often they can be, as the local Elmbridge Council traditionally saw a hard fought contest for control between the Conservatives and a concatenation of local residents groups such as the Walton Society and the Residents Associations in Molesey, Hinchley Wood and Thames Ditton. The Liberal Democrats traditionally had strength only in the villagey Claygate and Long Ditton and parts of Weybridge, which is in Runnymede & Weybridge constituency and not included in this seat despite it being in the Elmbridge council area. Some evidence from those observing the count suggested that they also excelled in the general election in Thames Ditton and East Molesey, which are just across the river from their Twickenham stronghold, and along it from their Kingston & Surbiton stronghold - and also have a very high proportion of university graduates. This would fit with the tendency of the Remain vote to be correlated with a high terminal education age.
Those teller observations in 2019 also suggest that the Tory vote may actually have held up better in the somewhat more ‘down-market’ parts of the constituency this time, such as West Molesey and Hersham, which include both industrial estates and social housing estates; and according to the age profile relating to Brexit they would certainly do very well in the retirement community of Whiteley Village. Labour have on occasion managed to win the odd ward at council level, but the last times they did were in 1999 when they took Walton North (which then included the Fieldcommon estate) and Molesey South (which no longer exists) and in 2000 (Hersham North). Labour were very heavily squeezed in the 2019 general election, from 19.7% all the way down to a deposit losing 4.5% - which actually accounts for more of the Liberal Democrat surge than the 9 point drop in Raab’s share. This is highly likely to happen again, even in a 2024 general election they may be winning nationally.Incidentally, there are other views on this; I offer a link in fairness, for people to make up their own minds ...
www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/calcwork23.py?seat=Esher+and+Walton
However in their surges in 2022, 2023 and 2024, the Liberal Democrats not only took Conservative council seats, but those of some localists as well. They have now won all three wards in Walton on Thames at least twice, including the ousting of Walton Society candidates, and the demographically friendly Molesey East from the Residents, both in a byelection in 2023 and in May 2024. They have twice won narrow contests in Hersham Village, thus making gains from the Conservatives. The Tories won only two wards in the whole borough in both May 2022 and 2023, the super affluent Oxshott/Stoke D’Abernon and Oatlands/Burwood Park. They also lost three contests in Cobham/Downside following a well publicised Liberal Democrat council byelection gain in July 2021, and subsequent retention and further success, though they held that ward in May 2024 - though it will no longer be in the Esher & Walton constituency at the next general election.
However in the parliamentary boundary changes that ward has been transferred to Runnymede & Weybridge, frustrating all the LD hard work to an extent. On the other hand, along with some realignments due to ward boundary changes, one of the two remaining Conservative wards, Oxshott & Stoke D’Abernon, also goes in the same direction. Oxshott (with its Crown Estate, whose residents include Sir Andy Murray) is very desirable and even more expensive, Stoke D’Abernon is smaller but attracts mainly East Asian fans to the location of the Chelsea FC training ground. The largest of these communities, Cobham, has something of an international flavour with its American School. In compensation, the other Conservative survivor in municipal contests, Oatlands & Burwood Park, travels in the other direction, coming in from Runnymede & Weybridge. This solution to the overly large electorate of the existing Esher & Walton was somewhat unexpected (at least by some of the political parties) and imaginative; the new shape of Runnymede and Weybridge looks logical on a map, but the only link between the two new wards and the rest of the seat is through the A3/A245 junction west of Cobham and east of Silvermere. Overall the changes are probably neutral in effect.
Esher and Walton new boundaries:
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/south-east/South%20East_316_Esher%20and%20Walton_Landscape.pdf
Runnymede and Weybridge new boundaries:
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/south-east/South%20East_356_Runnymede%20and%20Weybridge_Landscape.pdf
Esher and Walton constituency is prime commuting territory. It ranks in the top 10 out of the 576 newly drawn seats in England and Wales for professional and managerial workers in the most recent (2021) Census. It is still entirely contained within Elmbridge council, once named as the best place to live in the UK, Surrey’s ‘Beverly Hills’.
www.getsurrey.co.uk/news/local-news/elmbridge-named-best-place-live-4826566.
The largest communities are the rather diverse Walton on Thames and Molesey, which both contain a remarkable variety of housing types: in Walton for example the range is from the exclusive Ashley Park to the down-market if small St John’s social housing estate; East Molesey is regarded as much more desirable than West Molesey, with the modern development of Hurst Park (named after a former racecourse) in between. Hersham is also mixed, with a history of Labour against ‘Village Society’ – if not necessarily ‘village people’ - in its northern ward, but another gated private estate at Burwood Park in Hersham South. Now much of the former has been absorbed into Esher ward, leaving Labour with no chance even now. Esher, further east, has more of a posh-village feel as its sloping High Street, once the A3, rises past Sandown Park racecourse; although even Esher has a little known council estate at Lower Green, just on the other side of the railway tracks. Esher ward sees Conservative v. Residents group contests at municipal level. As mentioned, the Liberal Democrats' longest established strongholds in parliamentary terms are in the north eastern corner of the borough where it borders Greater London – the Dittons and Claygate (though in May 2024 their council leader Bruce McDonald was ousted in Claygate by a former LD councillor for the ward standing as an Independent).
The astonishing decline of the Conservatives in Esher & Walton shows that British elections no longer are necessarily simplistically and closely related to the variables of class, income and housing value – in short, to wealth. Issues matter, both the known ones such as the European Union and those as yet unpredictable. And that offers a wealth of possibilities, opportunities for all the competing parties, and much more interesting contests, around our varied and complex land.
2021 Census New Boundaries (ranks England and Wales)
Age 65+ 17.3% 362/575
Owner occupied 73.6% 86 /575
Private rented 16.2% 377/575
Social rented 10.2% 510 /575
White 86.2% 343/575
Black 1.2% 307/575
Asian 6.6% 229/575
Managerial & professional 50.2% 10/575
Routine & Semi-routine 12.5% 560/575
Degree level 51.6% 31/575
No qualifications 10.9% 552/575
Students 5.6% 282/575
General Election 2019: Esher and Walton
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Dominic Raab 31,132 49.4 -9.2
Liberal Democrats Monica Harding 28,389 45.0 +27.7
Labour Peter Ashurst 2,838 4.5 -15.2
Independent Kylie Keens 347 0.6 New
Monster Raving Loony Baron Badger 326 0.5 Steady 0.0
Advance Kyle Taylor 52 0.1 New
C Majority 2,743 4.4 -34.5
Turnout 63,084 77.7 +3.8
Conservative hold
Swing 18.5 C to LD
Boundary Changes
Esher and Walton consists of
83.8% of Esher and Walton
6.2% of Runnymede & Weybridge
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/south-east/South%20East_316_Esher%20and%20Walton_Landscape.pdf
2019 Notional Results on New Boundaries (Rallings and Thrasher)
| Con | 27819 | 49.5% |
| LD | 24804 | 44.2% |
| Lab | 2698 | 4.8% |
| Green | 132 | 0.2% |
| Oths | 964 | 1.3% |
| | ||
| Con Majority | 3015 | 5.4% |
