Esher and Walton

[heslingtonian]

On the one hand, I don't think Raab was ever a good fit for this seat and the Brexit issue was higher profile in 2019 which did not help the Conservatives here. In addition, Sunak is a better fit than Johnson for this seat.

On the other hand, the Liberal Democrats have won a lot of council seats since 2019 and are now a lot stronger locally with the Conservatives considerably weaker (a number of their councillors have left the Party completely). Secondly, Monica Harding (who I've heard from several sources is a very strong candidate) has had an additional four years to get better known in the constituency. Thirdly, there were a lot of people in seats like this who held their nose in 2019 for fear of the economic consequences of a Corbyn premiership and this isn't an issue this time. Finally (and I consider this to be the crucial point), I don't see anything material that the Conservative Government has done since December 2019 to make the average voter in Esher & Walton more likely to vote Conservative.

With all this in mind, I predict a Lib Dem majority of around 8,000.

[Deleted]

Nov 5, 2023 9:45:51 GMT heslingtonian said:

On the one hand, I don't think Raab was ever a good fit for this seat and the Brexit issue was higher profile in 2019 which did not help the Conservatives here. In addition, Sunak is a better fit than Johnson for this seat.

On the other hand, the Liberal Democrats have won a lot of council seats since 2019 and are now a lot stronger locally with the Conservatives considerably weaker (a number of their councillors have left the Party completely). Secondly, Monica Harding (who I've heard from several sources is a very strong candidate) has had an additional four years to get better known in the constituency. Thirdly, there were a lot of people in seats like this who held their nose in 2019 for fear of the economic consequences of a Corbyn premiership and this isn't an issue this time. Finally (and I consider this to be the crucial point), I don't see anything material that the Conservative Government has done since December 2019 to make the average voter in Esher & Walton more likely to vote Conservative.

With all this in mind, I predict a Lib Dem majority of around 8,000.

It's becoming the new Richmond Park politically, IMO.

[heslingtonian]

Nov 5, 2023 10:12:58 GMT @weld said:

Nov 5, 2023 9:45:51 GMT heslingtonian said:

On the one hand, I don't think Raab was ever a good fit for this seat and the Brexit issue was higher profile in 2019 which did not help the Conservatives here. In addition, Sunak is a better fit than Johnson for this seat.

On the other hand, the Liberal Democrats have won a lot of council seats since 2019 and are now a lot stronger locally with the Conservatives considerably weaker (a number of their councillors have left the Party completely). Secondly, Monica Harding (who I've heard from several sources is a very strong candidate) has had an additional four years to get better known in the constituency. Thirdly, there were a lot of people in seats like this who held their nose in 2019 for fear of the economic consequences of a Corbyn premiership and this isn't an issue this time. Finally (and I consider this to be the crucial point), I don't see anything material that the Conservative Government has done since December 2019 to make the average voter in Esher & Walton more likely to vote Conservative.

With all this in mind, I predict a Lib Dem majority of around 8,000.

It's becoming the new Richmond Park politically, IMO.

Most of Surrey (well Esher & Walton, Guildford, Godalming etc) will be the new Richmond Park after the next GE.

[graham]

What would the Tory majority have been here in 2019 without Brexit as the key issue - and Raab as the candidate?

[andrewp]

Nov 5, 2023 11:08:07 GMT graham said:

What would the Tory majority have been here in 2019 without Brexit as the key issue - and Raab as the candidate?

If Brexit hadn’t happened? 20,000.

[graham]

It is likely to be a much less salient issue in 2024.

[heslingtonian]

Nov 5, 2023 11:24:56 GMT graham said:

It is likely to be a much less salient issue in 2024.

Yes, but in seats like this the Conservative brand is in a worse place than in 2019 and zero effort has gone into winning back traditional Conservatives who have stopped voting for the Party due to Brexit.

[The Bishop]

But without Brexit there wouldn't have been the sort of 2019 GE we had anyway, if there was one at all.

[rcronald]

What would the majority in 2019 have been if the party had a generic Tory rather than Raab as the candidate?

[jakegb]

Nov 5, 2023 12:37:37 GMT rcronald said:

What would the majority in 2019 have been if the party had a generic Tory rather than Raab as the candidate?

Without Raab, I think the majority would have been similar to Woking/Mole Valley - around the 10,000. Still a significant decline from the 2015 Tory heyday. 

Both Raab and Hunt - unsurprisingly given their high profiles in the Tories - faced the brunt of the Lib Dems onslaught, though South West Surrey remains safer, due to the Lib Dems only starting off with 10% of the vote post 2017. 

[graham]

Nov 5, 2023 12:31:41 GMT heslingtonian said:

Nov 5, 2023 11:24:56 GMT graham said:

It is likely to be a much less salient issue in 2024.

Yes, but in seats like this the Conservative brand is in a worse place than in 2019 and zero effort has gone into winning back traditional Conservatives who have stopped voting for the Party due to Brexit.

Ok - but I still do wonder at the extent to which such voters will now see Brexit as effectively 'water under the bridge.' Many will simply have moved on and will now be focussed on other issues.

[heslingtonian]

Nov 5, 2023 13:58:17 GMT graham said:

Nov 5, 2023 12:31:41 GMT heslingtonian said:

Yes, but in seats like this the Conservative brand is in a worse place than in 2019 and zero effort has gone into winning back traditional Conservatives who have stopped voting for the Party due to Brexit.

Ok - but I still do wonder at the extent to which such voters will now see Brexit as effectively 'water under the bridge.' Many will simply have moved on and will now be focussed on other issues.

The Conservative Party hasn't seen Brexit as "water under the bridge" though and has burned its bridges with the professional classes by doubling down on the reallignment through culture wars and Braverman's immigration rants. I see zero sign that the sort of moderate voters who abandoned the Party due to hard Brexit will return.

[rcronald]

Nov 5, 2023 14:59:12 GMT heslingtonian said:

Nov 5, 2023 13:58:17 GMT graham said:

Ok - but I still do wonder at the extent to which such voters will now see Brexit as effectively 'water under the bridge.' Many will simply have moved on and will now be focussed on other issues.

The Conservative Party hasn't seen Brexit as "water under the bridge" though and has burned its bridges with the professional classes by doubling down on the reallignment through culture wars and Braverman's immigration rants. I see zero sign that the sort of moderate voters who abandoned the Party due to hard Brexit will return.

So it’s just the rhetoric for you? Not actual policy?

[rcronald]

Nov 5, 2023 15:00:45 GMT rcronald said:

Nov 5, 2023 14:59:12 GMT heslingtonian said:

The Conservative Party hasn't seen Brexit as "water under the bridge" though and has burned its bridges with the professional classes by doubling down on the reallignment through culture wars and Braverman's immigration rants. I see zero sign that the sort of moderate voters who abandoned the Party due to hard Brexit will return.

So it’s just the rhetoric for you? Not actual policy?

Btw, I find it hilarious that the Tories managed to alienate both moderate voters (hardline rhetoric) and hardliners (0 hardline policy, just half-arsed rhetoric).
Rhetorical extremism and moderate policy is the worst of both worlds in terms of electoral strategy.

[londonseal80]

Nov 4, 2023 22:31:00 GMT michaelarden said:

Nov 4, 2023 9:43:22 GMT jakegb said:

All general elections are different.
But looking at 1997 - the swings from Cons to Lib Dems - in many Cons/Lib Dems (semi) marginals hovered around the 5% in the West Country (e.g. Weston-Super-Mare + Torbay), with higher swings closer to London (e.g. neighbouring Kingston and Surbiton). This should give the Libs encouragement going into the next election - and I think a gain is likely.

But they cant be complacent: I still think there's a significant danger that the Libs will spread their resources too thinly and lose sight of the 'easier' gains. And one can't also rule out a decent rise in the Lab share in Esher: this in turn will also harm the Libs chances.

I think there is no doubt Labour's vote share will rise in Esher and Walton next time - they will certainly save their deposit, but whether they get into double figures is moot. I can't imagine it will make much difference as  the Lib Dems will get enough Tory switchers to get over the line. But it won't be a huge swing as that is already baked in in the 2019 result.

Wimbledon is more interesting as Labour start from a much higher base and their tide appears to be rising a lot higher and faster than the Lib Dems. If there's a target seat in London and the SE that the Lib Dems fail to win my money would be on Wimbledon as a result.

I think the Kingston bits will help the Lib Dem’s over the line there but on old boundaries Wimbledon would be a possible Labour gain. If they had a better candidate in 2017 (before the Lib Dems started capitalising) they may have won it or at least come very close that year.