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Post by jamesdoyle on Jul 28, 2023 10:32:08 GMT
GWBWI
Lab +131
Grn +91
LDm +52
Con -128
The Green score is almost entirely from East Sussex (quite a tonking), and the Con one is largely driven by that too, albeit in a different direction. Decent positive scores in three of the five for Labour, and in four for the LibDems.
Swindon last week notwithstanding, it seems like there is pretty much always one party positioned to take advantage of Con weakness. Sometimes it appears there are overt or covert agreements in play, other times it's just local strength. Obviously even if the GE was today, this local effect wouldn't translate straight to parliamentary seats, but it doesn't bode well for the Cons.
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,901
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Post by Tony Otim on Jul 28, 2023 10:34:39 GMT
East Sussex, Heathfield & Mayfield Green 1373 Con 858 Green gain from Conservative Grn 61.5% (+43.0) Con 38.5% (-20.7) (No Lab and LD as previously) |
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Post by yellowperil on Jul 28, 2023 12:22:53 GMT
I think I got a hint of what was coming when I saw all those big green poster boards in Mayfield. Didn't get to Heathfield, but I thought that would have been where the Green strength might have been expected, but I would expect Mayfield, and nearby places like Five Ashes, to be as Tory as they come
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Post by greenman on Jul 28, 2023 14:06:16 GMT
Note I was wrong about Wealden in that I confused Maresfield with Mayfield. The Conservatives held Mayfield and Five Ashes in May 2023. And the Conservatives now only lead 26 to 24 on the Council. If LD win Meads it will be a tie.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jul 28, 2023 14:29:37 GMT
East Sussex, Heathfield & Mayfield Green 1373 Con 858 Green gain from Conservative Tories now lose their majority in East Sussex if they lose the Meads by-election. |
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batman
Labour
Posts: 12,397 
Member is Online
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Post by batman on Jul 28, 2023 14:37:08 GMT
Not displeased to have got it spectacularly wrong in E Sussex. Heathfield strikes me as really natural Tory territory and I am frankly amazed at the extent of their struggles in areas like it. I can't pretend to know the other villages though I have done the Harveys' Hop and therefore have visited my fair share of Sussex villages.
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Post by monksfield on Jul 28, 2023 18:57:46 GMT
Not displeased to have got it spectacularly wrong in E Sussex. Heathfield strikes me as really natural Tory territory and I am frankly amazed at the extent of their struggles in areas like it. I can't pretend to know the other villages though I have done the Harveys' Hop and therefore have visited my fair share of Sussex villages. They’ve taken their core vote for granted, and it’s turning on them. Just like Labour in the Midlands and North. |
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Post by greenman on Jul 28, 2023 19:34:12 GMT
Mark Pack's by-election scorecard has the Conservatives on -7, SNP -2, Labour zero, Independents +2, LD +3 and Green +4.
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