France Votes Yes To The EU Constitution 2005

[tomc]

In the months prior to the vote most polls showed a narrowish majority in France for ratifying the treaty but this was dented, at least partly by a series of scandals involving Chirac's government.  What if that didn't happen?  It's quite possible that a yes vote in France would also have had an effect in the Netherlands leading them to approve the constitution which would only leave the UK and possibly Denmark of countries who'd committed to holding a referendum (I'm not actually sure if the Danes were going to vote though).

It scarcely seems likely that Blair could have won a referendum on the constitution and there was talk in the EU that any country not ratifying would de facto have left the EU or could be expelled, that was never going to happen to France but it might have been different with Britain.  Equally there was a suggestion that Blair would have put the referendum as an in / out vote on the EU membership rather than the constitution which would be high risk to say the least.

In the event of course the French 'Non' saved Blair  a lot of embarrassment but how could it have played out if the French had been a bit less French?

[Deleted]

Jul 2, 2023 22:56:25 GMT tomc said:

In the months prior to the vote most polls showed a narrowish majority in France for ratifying the treaty but this was dented, at least partly by a series of scandals involving Chirac's government.  What if that didn't happen?  It's quite possible that a yes vote in France would also have had an effect in the Netherlands leading them to approve the constitution which would only leave the UK and possibly Denmark of countries who'd committed to holding a referendum (I'm not actually sure if the Danes were going to vote though).

It scarcely seems likely that Blair could have won a referendum on the constitution and there was talk in the EU that any country not ratifying would de facto have left the EU or could be expelled, that was never going to happen to France but it might have been different with Britain.  Equally there was a suggestion that Blair would have put the referendum as an in / out vote on the EU membership rather than the constitution which would be high risk to say the least.

In the event of course the French 'Non' saved Blair  a lot of embarrassment but how could it have played out if the French had been a bit less French?

I don’t Think that a Yes vote in France would have made all that much difference here. Why would Dutch voters care? The general mood was clearly against the Constitution. It would perhaps have shaved a few percentage of the huge majority.

in a way it was comparable to the Brexit vote in the UK. People voted No for a wide range of reasons, often from completely oppositie perspections. For instance, a small Group of voters was against the Constitution because it did not go far enough.

[tomc]

Jul 3, 2023 3:55:54 GMT @tulkinghorn said:

Jul 2, 2023 22:56:25 GMT tomc said:

In the months prior to the vote most polls showed a narrowish majority in France for ratifying the treaty but this was dented, at least partly by a series of scandals involving Chirac's government.  What if that didn't happen?  It's quite possible that a yes vote in France would also have had an effect in the Netherlands leading them to approve the constitution which would only leave the UK and possibly Denmark of countries who'd committed to holding a referendum (I'm not actually sure if the Danes were going to vote though).

It scarcely seems likely that Blair could have won a referendum on the constitution and there was talk in the EU that any country not ratifying would de facto have left the EU or could be expelled, that was never going to happen to France but it might have been different with Britain.  Equally there was a suggestion that Blair would have put the referendum as an in / out vote on the EU membership rather than the constitution which would be high risk to say the least.

In the event of course the French 'Non' saved Blair  a lot of embarrassment but how could it have played out if the French had been a bit less French?

I don’t Think that a Yes vote in France would have made all that much difference here. Why would Dutch voters care? The general mood was clearly against the Constitution. It would perhaps have shaved a few percentage of the huge majority.

in a way it was comparable to the Brexit vote in the UK. People voted No for a wide range of reasons, often from completely oppositie perspections. For instance, a small Group of voters was against the Constitution because it did not go far enough.

A French yes vote might have had some effect on Dutch voters because their politicians would have been able to suggest that they'd be the only holdouts stopping European integration, anyway I need the Dutch to vote yes for the thread to work.

I don't think there was a minority of French no voters who thought the constitution didn't go far enough, this was a suggestion made by d'Estaing but is the sort of daft thing Eurocrats always say after a reverse.

The key thing I'm interested in is what happens in Britain if both the French and the Dutch voted Yes, I think only Poland was going to have a referendum later than Britain.

[The Bishop]

Blair might have decided to make any such referendum de facto about UK membership, as suggested above. Obviously this would have been rather risky, but might also have had a decent chance of success - unlike Cameron's dilatory efforts a decade later he would actually have taken the exercise seriously, and he would have had a largely united party behind him. Even given his fall in popularity by this point, Mr Tony in full flow would still have been a pretty formidable proposition.

And a "yes" vote would have given him a high point to retire on, and maybe repaired a bit of the Iraq damage.

[Deleted]

Jul 3, 2023 6:47:03 GMT tomc said:

Jul 3, 2023 3:55:54 GMT @tulkinghorn said:

I don’t Think that a Yes vote in France would have made all that much difference here. Why would Dutch voters care? The general mood was clearly against the Constitution. It would perhaps have shaved a few percentage of the huge majority.

in a way it was comparable to the Brexit vote in the UK. People voted No for a wide range of reasons, often from completely oppositie perspections. For instance, a small Group of voters was against the Constitution because it did not go far enough.

A French yes vote might have had some effect on Dutch voters because their politicians would have been able to suggest that they'd be the only holdouts stopping European integration, anyway I need the Dutch to vote yes for the thread to work.

Did think of that, but in my estimation the influence would not have swayed enough votes. Remember the Dutch voters also voted against the collabaration agreement with Ukraine. It did not seem to bother them that they were the only ones to do so.   

Side note: A referendum is very conservative and tends to appeal mostly to people supporting the status quo. As far as I can recall, in no major referendum did a majority of Dutch voters vote to support the proposal that was in question. We’ve had 3 national referenda and several in my hometown (the city of cannabis, canals and cyclists). They all ended in tears for policy makers, so they raised the bar by increasing the numbers needed to vote down a proposal. Now it’s not worth the bother to try to get one.

[Deleted]

Jul 3, 2023 9:44:53 GMT @tulkinghorn said:

Jul 3, 2023 6:47:03 GMT tomc said:

A French yes vote might have had some effect on Dutch voters because their politicians would have been able to suggest that they'd be the only holdouts stopping European integration, anyway I need the Dutch to vote yes for the thread to work.

Did think of that, but in my estimation the influence would not have swayed enough votes. Remember the Dutch voters also voted against the collabaration agreement with Ukraine. It did not seem to bother them that they were the only ones to do so.   

Side note: A referendum is very conservative and tends to appeal mostly to people supporting the status quo. As far as I can recall, in no major referendum did a majority of Dutch voters vote to support the proposal that was in question. We’ve had 3 national referenda and several in my hometown (the city of cannabis, canals and cyclists). They all ended in tears for policy makers, so they raised the bar by increasing the numbers needed to vote down a proposal. Now it’s not worth the bother to try to get one.

Which city is that?

[nodealbrexiteer]

Jul 3, 2023 14:10:32 GMT @europeanlefty said:

Jul 3, 2023 9:44:53 GMT @tulkinghorn said:

Did think of that, but in my estimation the influence would not have swayed enough votes. Remember the Dutch voters also voted against the collabaration agreement with Ukraine. It did not seem to bother them that they were the only ones to do so.   

Side note: A referendum is very conservative and tends to appeal mostly to people supporting the status quo. As far as I can recall, in no major referendum did a majority of Dutch voters vote to support the proposal that was in question. We’ve had 3 national referenda and several in my hometown (the city of cannabis, canals and cyclists). They all ended in tears for policy makers, so they raised the bar by increasing the numbers needed to vote down a proposal. Now it’s not worth the bother to try to get one.

Which city is that?

Are you just in the middle of booking your plane ticket?

[Deleted]

Jul 3, 2023 14:15:19 GMT nodealbrexiteer said:

Jul 3, 2023 14:10:32 GMT @europeanlefty said:

Which city is that?

Are you just in the middle of booking your plane ticket?

The city alternatively designated by the Dutch richt wing press as either Moscow or Havanna aan het IJ, 

[Deleted]

Jul 3, 2023 14:15:19 GMT nodealbrexiteer said:

Jul 3, 2023 14:10:32 GMT @europeanlefty said:

Which city is that?

Are you just in the middle of booking your plane ticket?

Well I enjoy cycling, and I do like a nice canal...

[Deleted]

Jul 3, 2023 14:42:53 GMT @tulkinghorn said:

Jul 3, 2023 14:15:19 GMT nodealbrexiteer said:

Are you just in the middle of booking your plane ticket?

The city alternatively designated by the Dutch richt wing press as either Moscow or Havanna aan het IJ, 

I'm assuming that's Amsterdam then (or possibly a specific part of Amsterdam)?

[finsobruce]

Jul 3, 2023 16:39:27 GMT @europeanlefty said:

Jul 3, 2023 14:15:19 GMT nodealbrexiteer said:

Are you just in the middle of booking your plane ticket?

Well I enjoy cycling, and I do like a nice canal...

Birmingham it is then...

[nodealbrexiteer]

Jul 3, 2023 16:39:27 GMT @europeanlefty said:

Jul 3, 2023 14:15:19 GMT nodealbrexiteer said:

Are you just in the middle of booking your plane ticket?

Well I enjoy cycling, and I do like a nice canal...

[Deleted]

Jul 3, 2023 16:42:29 GMT @europeanlefty said:

Jul 3, 2023 14:42:53 GMT @tulkinghorn said:

The city alternatively designated by the Dutch richt wing press as either Moscow or Havanna aan het IJ, 

I'm assuming that's Amsterdam then (or possibly a specific part of Amsterdam)?

Yes, I live in the detached Northern part of the city. Once the despised (heavily working class) part of the city (“nobody likes us, but we don’t care”), now rapidly gentrifying. 

Note: I have lived here since 1964 when my parents returned after living near the city centre for 8 years. So I know what’s it liked to be mocked because you’re from this part of the city.

[J.G.Harston]

Jul 3, 2023 19:38:41 GMT @tulkinghorn said:

Jul 3, 2023 16:42:29 GMT @europeanlefty said:

I'm assuming that's Amsterdam then (or possibly a specific part of Amsterdam)?

Yes, I live in the detached Northern part of the city. Once the despised (heavily working class) part of the city (“nobody likes us, but we don’t care”), now rapidly gentrifying. 

Checking a map, the northern portion is at least five times bigger than the southern portion, so shouldn't that be "the main part of Amsterdam", with the other bit the "detatched southern part"?

[greatkingrat]

Jul 3, 2023 21:26:13 GMT J.G.Harston said:

Jul 3, 2023 19:38:41 GMT @tulkinghorn said:

Yes, I live in the detached Northern part of the city. Once the despised (heavily working class) part of the city (“nobody likes us, but we don’t care”), now rapidly gentrifying. 

Checking a map, the northern portion is at least five times bigger than the southern portion, so shouldn't that be "the main part of Amsterdam", with the other bit the "detatched southern part"?

I think you are holding your map upside down.

[J.G.Harston]

Jul 3, 2023 21:29:13 GMT greatkingrat said:

Jul 3, 2023 21:26:13 GMT J.G.Harston said:

Checking a map, the northern portion is at least five times bigger than the southern portion, so shouldn't that be "the main part of Amsterdam", with the other bit the "detatched southern part"?

I think you are holding your map upside down.

[greatkingrat]

I'm assuming he means Noord, not Zuidoost

[Deleted]

Noord has about 25% of the territory of the city, with about 12% of iets population. We’re separated from the city by the river IJ, with one bridge and two tunnels.

[AdminSTB]

If Zuid means South, does Zuidoost mean something like 'more southerly?'

[Sibboleth]

Jul 4, 2023 15:31:39 GMT AdminSTB said:

If Zuid means South, does Zuidoost mean something like 'more southerly?'

Sadly not. Oost is East.