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Post by AdminSTB on Jul 4, 2023 16:31:36 GMT
If Zuid means South, does Zuidoost mean something like 'more southerly?' Sadly not. Oost is East. Should have guessed that from the map! |
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tomc
Conservative
Posts: 904 
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Post by tomc on Jul 9, 2023 0:46:11 GMT
Blair might have decided to make any such referendum de facto about UK membership, as suggested above. Obviously this would have been rather risky, but might also have had a decent chance of success - unlike Cameron's dilatory efforts a decade later he would actually have taken the exercise seriously, and he would have had a largely united party behind him. Even given his fall in popularity by this point, Mr Tony in full flow would still have been a pretty formidable proposition. And a "yes" vote would have given him a high point to retire on, and maybe repaired a bit of the Iraq damage. It would have had a high chance of success, if by success you mean winning the vote; nearly all the parliamentary Conservative party would have been in the 'In' camp albeit grumblingly, leaving the 'Out' camp being de facto led by UKIP and fringe elements of from Labour and the Conservatives. I suspect the vote would have been 60% plus to stay in. The interesting thing is what happens to UKIP in the aftermath, a lot of Conservative voters would be somewhere between irritated and enraged by the Tory stance and 2004-5 was one of the first of UKIP's surges. If the increase in their vote share in 2015 instead happened in 2010 then Brown very likely wins or Labour is the largest party and stays in government until 2015. What do the Tories do if UKIP are sat, seemingly permanently on 15-20%. Becoming overtly withdrawlist might be their only viable strategy. An alternative is that voters lose interest in the EU until then next thing it does, UKIP sinks back below 10% and the Tories eventually win back power with Europe being lanced as an issue. But that is less fun to contemplate. |
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