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Post by matureleft on Jun 29, 2023 18:56:59 GMT
I do get that sometimes things rankle but can take a while to get into full rankling mode. I suspect that he’s been wound up a bit by others. |
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Jun 30, 2023 6:33:20 GMT
Very poor show in my view. Sean is a good guy and and has worked a lot for the party. I don't understand why someone couldn't have called him to explain why they chose someone else. This is how we lose good people. That resignation statement in full:
I wonder if he could be bothered to ring up and ask why? Or was he just waiting for them to contact him?
If you don't a job, you don't automatically get feedback, especially if you don't ask for it.
He comes across as a typical modern self entitled party member / politician, he's put himself before what his supposid beliefs actually stand for.
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Post by robert1 on Jul 4, 2023 14:23:55 GMT
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Post by batman on Jul 4, 2023 14:34:29 GMT
a forth by-election? Is there a vacancy in Edinburgh North & Leith or in Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath?
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Post by evergreenadam on Jul 8, 2023 21:47:51 GMT
Any local reports?
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,748
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Post by Chris from Brum on Jul 9, 2023 7:34:22 GMT
a forth by-election? Is there a vacancy in Edinburgh North & Leith or in Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath? The Leith police believeth us |
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Jul 11, 2023 13:49:38 GMT
Chesham
LibDems gained 6,890 votes.
Labour lost 6,544
Cons lost 17,361
N. Shropshire
LibDems gained 12,314
Labour lost 8,809
Cons lost 23,412
Tiverton
LibDems gained 13,730 votes
Labour lost 10,092
Cons lost 19,500
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Post by andrewp on Jul 11, 2023 18:38:11 GMT
I drove through this constituency today ( although not through any of the towns). Very little sign of an election. My stake board count was Green 1 Lib Dem 1 Conservative 1.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jul 13, 2023 3:49:19 GMT
This looks about right - 25% swing from Tory to Lib Dem.
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Post by bigfatron on Jul 13, 2023 6:54:55 GMT
This looks about right - 25% swing from Tory to Lib Dem. I think that's unlikely - the Tories are putting in much more effort than some previous by-elections from what I hear - 'throwing the kitchen sink at it'... I still think the Lib Dems are favoured but by a smaller majority, with a larger chance of a Tory hold than that model implies. |
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Post by andrewp on Jul 13, 2023 7:38:38 GMT
I think that model looks about right
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r34t
Non-Aligned
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Post by r34t on Jul 13, 2023 7:41:39 GMT
This looks about right - 25% swing from Tory to Lib Dem. I think that's unlikely - the Tories are putting in much more effort than some previous by-elections from what I hear - 'throwing the kitchen sink at it'... I still think the Lib Dems are favoured but by a smaller majority, with a larger chance of a Tory hold than that model implies. A leaflet & canvass of PVs isn’t really chucking the kitchen sink. Pretty low key by-election as far as I can see. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 13, 2023 7:52:14 GMT
I don't see Labour and Greens getting a combined 15% in this scenario. I'd expect both to be squeezed to deposit losing levels
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iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on Jul 13, 2023 8:03:57 GMT
I don't see Labour and Greens getting a combined 15% in this scenario. I'd expect both to be squeezed to deposit losing levels I could see the Greens just about holding theirs, but very little chance for Labour I’d have thought. |
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,913
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Post by YL on Jul 13, 2023 8:06:24 GMT
There’s a lot of uncertainty in that model if its central prediction is a Lib Dem win by 20 points but it still has a 12% chance of a Tory hold. This isn’t a priori unreasonable — by-elections can have a lot of individual factors — but limits its usefulness.
I think that the record of by-elections with an unpopular Tory government (not coalition, obviously) in hopeless seats for Labour and with a serious Lib Dem challenge is such that if the Lib Dems don’t win this they will be having an inquest.
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graham
Non-Aligned
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Post by graham on Jul 13, 2023 8:15:35 GMT
Labour has only lost its deposit in the seat in 2010. The boundary changes about to be implemented might give the party good reason to campaign hard in the Frome part of the constituency.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jul 13, 2023 8:29:14 GMT
I don't see Labour and Greens getting a combined 15% in this scenario. I'd expect both to be squeezed to deposit losing levels Fair enough, but this model already suggests a fairly high combined share for CON and LD. The Greens may beat Labour since Somerton & Frome was one of their better seats in 2015 and 2019, and they may get a lot of protest votes here. Labour losing their deposit seems likely. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 13, 2023 8:36:09 GMT
Labour has only lost its deposit in the seat in 2010. The boundary changes about to be implemented might give the party good reason to campaign hard in the Frome part of the constituency. Labour had never lost their deposit in Chesham & Amersham before the by-election when they did, with 1.6% of the vote. I take your point about Labour wanting to campaign in the area going into the new Frome seat, but it doesn't mean it will do them any good. |
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Post by mattb on Jul 13, 2023 10:51:20 GMT
Unlike C&A, NS or T&H there is overwhelming expectation here that the Tories will lose and lose by a wide margin. I suspect the squeeze on both Lab and (especially) Green will be less successful here than in those three.
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graham
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,345
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Post by graham on Jul 13, 2023 11:15:13 GMT
Labour has only lost its deposit in the seat in 2010. The boundary changes about to be implemented might give the party good reason to campaign hard in the Frome part of the constituency. Labour had never lost their deposit in Chesham & Amersham before the by-election when they did, with 1.6% of the vote. I take your point about Labour wanting to campaign in the area going into the new Frome seat, but it doesn't mean it will do them any good. How did Labour manage to hold its deposit here - 2010 excepted - in the years of LD success post -1997? Labour is polling a fair bit better nationally compared with \chesham & Amersham in June 2021.
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