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Post by manchesterman on Jun 14, 2023 14:58:37 GMT
Well yes, I'm not suggesting they forget Mid Beds altogether, but given it is very likely that the S&A and U&SR by elections will be held on 20 July and the Mid Beds one "some time later"; their by-elecion machine will be raring to go in one or both of those seats, I'm sure.
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Post by johnloony on Jun 14, 2023 15:04:37 GMT
Writ just moved. The Speaker narrowly avoided naming the outgoing MP as Nigel Evans (the Deputy Speaker).That’s a shame. I’m sure many members of this forum would be well up for another Ribble Valley by-election… I noticed that Simon Hart and Lindsay Hoyle both did not pronounce the P in "Pfeffel". |
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Post by johnloony on Jun 14, 2023 15:57:24 GMT
Does this mean 20 July, assuming a Thursday? Unless I'm wrong, the minimum duration for a by-election is 23 working days, so 13 July has already gone. Isn't the timetable (with 'day' = 'working day'): Day 0 (today) Writ issued Day 1 (15 June) Writ received - defined as the day after the writ is moved Day 3 (19 June) Publication of Notice of Election - defined as the second day after writ received Day 6-8 (22-26 June; Returning Officer discretion) Deadline for delivery of Nomination Papers - defined as not earlier than the 3rd day after the publication of notice of election and not later than the 7th day after the day the writ is received Day 23-27 (17-21 July) Polling day - defined as not be earlier than the 17th nor later than the 19th day after the last day for delivery of nomination papers. See post in the Uxbridge thread. I think the RO has the ability to issue the notice of election on the same day as the writ is received, which would allow the polling day to be on 13 July (I think this was done in South Shields - the shortest byelection in recent years). But in practice it's going to be 20 July. This is one of the things where the law should be modernised so that the writ specifies a particular date, rather than having all this faffing about with "number of working days" stuff. |
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
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Post by john07 on Jun 14, 2023 19:37:00 GMT
That’s a shame. I’m sure many members of this forum would be well up for another Ribble Valley by-election… I noticed that Simon Hart and Lindsay Hoyle both did not pronounce the P in "Pfeffel". Surely it should be pronounced as Piffle? |
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Post by johnloony on Jun 14, 2023 20:18:17 GMT
I noticed that Simon Hart and Lindsay Hoyle both did not pronounce the P in "Pfeffel". Surely it should be pronounced as Piffle? It’s pronounced “Throatwobbler Mangrove” |
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YL
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Post by YL on Jun 15, 2023 6:20:53 GMT
It's hard to say, but I doubt it. While Labour will want to get some votes out of that part, realistically it's not very important. It is a small component and probably close to 95% of Labour's potential vote is in the Selby part of the seat.It's also worth noting that, in the most recent local elections, both divisions within the "Ainsty" were Conservative vs Green battlegrounds. You have to go back quite a long way to find any Lib Dem strength. Residents who don't vote Conservative seem quite able to move tactically between the various other parties (as well as independent candidates, and in one case even an old Liberal). Great explanation, thanks. I thought at first it would have been a more considerable component based on the 2010 majority (12,000+) which meant it was safe from its inception, but instead I guess the seat as a whole must have had one of the larger swings of that election (if a notional has been calculated?) rather than it purely being down to the addition of Ainsty bringing in a 12,000 block vote. Of course there was a new Labour candidate too which would have added to this. But compared to other semi-rural seats such as Sherwood (also new Labour candidate in 2010 ) or ‘Amber Valley’ which the Tories only ‘just about’ gained before building substantial majorities, S&A appeared already quite safe. The boundary changes also removed areas which had been added to York when it was unitarised in 1995, including the University. Given the big fall in the Labour vote and big rise in the Lib Dem vote compared with the 2005 notional, I am a little suspicious that the notionals overestimated the Lib Dems and underestimated Labour in the part of the old Selby seat which was transferred to York Outer. As well as meaning a bigger notional Tory majority in this seat in 2005, that would also mean that York Outer would not have really been carried by the Lib Dems. However, I'm sure John Grogan's decision not to contest the new seat also had a negative effect on the Labour vote. |
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Post by woollyliberal on Jun 15, 2023 7:19:32 GMT
Surely it should be pronounced as Piffle? It’s pronounced “Throatwobbler Mangrove” I think you'll find it's pronounced "Custard" as in Alexander Binbag de Custard Johnson. His family call him Alexander, but 'professionally' he is known by his second name: Binbag. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 15, 2023 7:25:30 GMT
Great explanation, thanks. I thought at first it would have been a more considerable component based on the 2010 majority (12,000+) which meant it was safe from its inception, but instead I guess the seat as a whole must have had one of the larger swings of that election (if a notional has been calculated?) rather than it purely being down to the addition of Ainsty bringing in a 12,000 block vote. Of course there was a new Labour candidate too which would have added to this. But compared to other semi-rural seats such as Sherwood (also new Labour candidate in 2010 ) or ‘Amber Valley’ which the Tories only ‘just about’ gained before building substantial majorities, S&A appeared already quite safe. The boundary changes also removed areas which had been added to York when it was unitarised in 1995, including the University. Given the big fall in the Labour vote and big rise in the Lib Dem vote compared with the 2005 notional, I am a little suspicious that the notionals overestimated the Lib Dems and underestimated Labour in the part of the old Selby seat which was transferred to York Outer. As well as meaning a bigger notional Tory majority in this seat in 2005, that would also mean that York Outer would not have really been carried by the Lib Dems. However, I'm sure John Grogan's decision not to contest the new seat also had a negative effect on the Labour vote. I've been banging this drum for some time (actually before the 2010 election I wrote quite a long post about it on the old UKPR site, sadly now probably lost to posterity) |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 15, 2023 9:04:56 GMT
The boundary changes also removed areas which had been added to York when it was unitarised in 1995, including the University. Given the big fall in the Labour vote and big rise in the Lib Dem vote compared with the 2005 notional, I am a little suspicious that the notionals overestimated the Lib Dems and underestimated Labour in the part of the old Selby seat which was transferred to York Outer. As well as meaning a bigger notional Tory majority in this seat in 2005, that would also mean that York Outer would not have really been carried by the Lib Dems. However, I'm sure John Grogan's decision not to contest the new seat also had a negative effect on the Labour vote. I've been banging this drum for some time (actually before the 2010 election I wrote quite a long post about it on the old UKPR site, sadly now probably lost to posterity) Actually not web.archive.org/web/20071012111040/http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/guide/?page_id=151&cp=all#comments |
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YL
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Post by YL on Jun 15, 2023 17:03:07 GMT
It's been reported that 20 July is the date, and as North Yorkshire Council don't seem to have issued a Notice of Election for 13 July I think that must be right.
As mentioned in the defections thread, the Yorkshire Party announced Mike Jordan, councillor for Camblesforth & Carlton who recently left the Tories, as their candidate.
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Jun 15, 2023 19:38:06 GMT
Keir Mather wins the Labour selection
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aargauer
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Post by aargauer on Jun 15, 2023 19:43:20 GMT
I wonder what proportion of Keirs running for parliament are labour.
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Post by Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells on Jun 15, 2023 22:16:06 GMT
Since there is no prediction thread, I wish to make an early prediction here.
Labour 1st
Tories 2nd
Yorks Party in close third (definitely at least 20 percent).
Would expect a narrow majority for Labour of around 1k in a by election.
The Yorks Party have a chance of coming 3rd for the following reasons - they have a strong and well known local candidate, they can act as a regionalist repository for those dissatisfied with national politics and their image is quite inoffensive and amenable for prospective voters.
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CatholicLeft
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Post by CatholicLeft on Jun 15, 2023 22:26:49 GMT
Since there is no prediction thread, I wish to make an early prediction here. Labour 1st Tories 2nd Yorks Party in close third (definitely at least 20 percent). Would expect a narrow majority for Labour of around 1k in a by election. The Yorks Party have a chance of coming 3rd for the following reasons - they have a strong and well known local candidate, they can act as a regionalist repository for those dissatisfied with national politics and their image is quite inoffensive and amenable for prospective voters. Having lived a large chunk of my life in this constituency, I can assure you that he won't be considered particularly local by most of the electorate. Also, 20% seems remarkably high and, I would assume, only achievable on a very low turnout with Yorkshire Party-orientated voters remarkably enthused. I agree on the potential Labour majority. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jun 15, 2023 22:39:58 GMT
Popcorn time.
Without knowledge that Nigel Adams would be resigning his seat and forcing a byelection, Michael Naughton was selected based for the new seat with new boundaries. So the defeated candidate wants a byelection selection run on current boundaries.
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wysall
Forum Regular
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Post by wysall on Jun 15, 2023 22:47:20 GMT
Since there is no prediction thread, I wish to make an early prediction here. Labour 1st Tories 2nd Yorks Party in close third (definitely at least 20 percent). Would expect a narrow majority for Labour of around 1k in a by election. The Yorks Party have a chance of coming 3rd for the following reasons - they have a strong and well known local candidate, they can act as a regionalist repository for those dissatisfied with national politics and their image is quite inoffensive and amenable for prospective voters. Northern Independence Party on 15%. |
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Post by Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells on Jun 15, 2023 22:48:18 GMT
Since there is no prediction thread, I wish to make an early prediction here. Labour 1st Tories 2nd Yorks Party in close third (definitely at least 20 percent). Would expect a narrow majority for Labour of around 1k in a by election. The Yorks Party have a chance of coming 3rd for the following reasons - they have a strong and well known local candidate, they can act as a regionalist repository for those dissatisfied with national politics and their image is quite inoffensive and amenable for prospective voters. Having lived a large chunk of my life in this constituency, I can assure you that he won't be considered particularly local by most of the electorate. Also, 20% seems remarkably high and, I would assume, only achievable on a very low turnout with Yorkshire Party-orientated voters remarkably enthused. I agree on the potential Labour majority. He lives in Sherburn no? It may be a parochial constituency, but the current or previous MP, depending on your view of electoral law, was from Selby and did reasonably well across the area. 20 percent on a by election turnout remember. |
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Post by Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells on Jun 15, 2023 22:49:21 GMT
Since there is no prediction thread, I wish to make an early prediction here. Labour 1st Tories 2nd Yorks Party in close third (definitely at least 20 percent). Would expect a narrow majority for Labour of around 1k in a by election. The Yorks Party have a chance of coming 3rd for the following reasons - they have a strong and well known local candidate, they can act as a regionalist repository for those dissatisfied with national politics and their image is quite inoffensive and amenable for prospective voters. Northern Independence Party on 15%. A man can dream, I guess.... |
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Post by carlton43 on Jun 15, 2023 23:20:01 GMT
Since there is no prediction thread, I wish to make an early prediction here. Labour 1st Tories 2nd Yorks Party in close third (definitely at least 20 percent). Would expect a narrow majority for Labour of around 1k in a by election. The Yorks Party have a chance of coming 3rd for the following reasons - they have a strong and well known local candidate, they can act as a regionalist repository for those dissatisfied with national politics and their image is quite inoffensive and amenable for prospective voters. I was in the constituency yesterday and saw the unicorns rolling in the snow. |
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Post by Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells on Jun 15, 2023 23:37:26 GMT
Since there is no prediction thread, I wish to make an early prediction here. Labour 1st Tories 2nd Yorks Party in close third (definitely at least 20 percent). Would expect a narrow majority for Labour of around 1k in a by election. The Yorks Party have a chance of coming 3rd for the following reasons - they have a strong and well known local candidate, they can act as a regionalist repository for those dissatisfied with national politics and their image is quite inoffensive and amenable for prospective voters. I was in the constituency yesterday and saw the unicorns rolling in the snow. Ah, what an amazing sight! Did you get pictures.......  |
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