Selby and Ainsty

[LDCaerdydd]

Jun 25, 2023 21:02:42 GMT minionofmidas said:

What btw is that 'certificate of authentification' Herdson mentions?

A certificate/letter from a political party saying that person x is authorised to nominate someone on behalf of party y.

Basically it stops you or me saying I’m the Labour/Tory candidate in any seat we fancy.

[YL]

Jun 25, 2023 21:02:42 GMT minionofmidas said:

What btw is that 'certificate of authentification' Herdson mentions?

The Somerton & Frome nomination pack is still up. If you scroll to page 8 you will see the certificate of authorisation, which is to be signed by the party's Nominating Officer, and the next page has the request for an emblem, which is to be signed by the candidate. So my understanding is that those two forms were completed correctly (and hence the emblem can appear) but the party name was not included on the main nomination form (page 4).

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Jun 25, 2023 21:02:42 GMT minionofmidas said:

What btw is that 'certificate of authentification' Herdson mentions?

The one you need to be signed by a party's nominating officer in order to use a party's registered description on the ballot paper.

See paper 2 in the nomination pack. The one to use a party emblem is a paper 3 so it is possible (if a party cocks it up properly) to have a signed party emblem form but not a certificate of authorisation

[greatkingrat]

Jun 25, 2023 19:34:33 GMT @europeanlefty said:

I didn't realise that was allowed

I don't think it is allowed.

Representation of the People Act 1983, Schedule 1

19 (2A) If a candidate who is the subject of a party’s authorisation under rule 6A(1) so requests, the ballot paper shall contain, against the candidate’s particulars, the party’s registered emblem (or, as the case may be, one of the party’s registered emblems).

So if he hasn't been correctly authorised to use the Yorkshire Party name or descriptions, he can't use the emblem either (even if the emblem form has been completed correctly).

[YL]

Jun 26, 2023 12:03:07 GMT greatkingrat said:

Jun 25, 2023 19:34:33 GMT @europeanlefty said:

I didn't realise that was allowed

I don't think it is allowed.

Representation of the People Act 1983, Schedule 1

19 (2A) If a candidate who is the subject of a party’s authorisation under rule 6A(1) so requests, the ballot paper shall contain, against the candidate’s particulars, the party’s registered emblem (or, as the case may be, one of the party’s registered emblems).

So if he hasn't been correctly authorised to use the Yorkshire Party name or descriptions, he can't use the emblem either (even if the emblem form has been completed correctly).

If I understand what has apparently happened here correctly, then he has been correctly authorised to use the name, he just didn’t use it: the authorisation form was completed by the Nominating Officer allowing him to use a Yorkshire Party description, but the actual description field on the main nomination form was left blank. And because the emblem form, separate from the main nomination form, was also correctly completed, he’s allowed to have the emblem…

[minionofmidas]

Indeed. This explains why Herdson specifically mentioned that.

[johnloony]

Jun 23, 2023 18:20:45 GMT Chris from Brum said:

Is five candidates with surnames beginning with "W" a record?

It equals the record.

I have checked all parliamentary by-elections going back to 1970, but I haven’t checked everything before 1970, and I haven’t checked general elections.

5 candidates with surnames starting with the same letter
20.07.2023 Selby & Ainsty W5
01.03.1984 Chesterfield B5

4 candidates with surnames starting with the same letter
4 plus 4
06.05.1993 Newbury B4 S4 M3

4 plus 3
20.07.2023 Uxbridge & South Ruislip B4 G3
10.07.2008 Haltemprice & Howden C4 F3 S3

4
13.01.2011 Oldham East & Saddleworth A4
12.11.2009 Glasgow North East B4
23.09.1999 Hamilton South M4
11.04.1996 Staffordshire South East S4
22.10.1981 Croydon North West B4
26.06.1980 Glasgow Central M4
07.12.1972 Uxbridge S4

3 candidates with surnames starting with the same letter
3 plus 3
19.07.2007 Sedgefield G3 H3 S3
14.02.2002 Ogmore B3 H3
25.11.1999 Kensington & Chelsea H3 S3
22.03.1990 Staffordshire Mid H3 S3
24.02.1983 Bermondsey B3 H3

3
01.12.2022 City of Chester H3
03.03.2022 Birmingham Erdington H3
06.05.2021 Hartlepool W3
01.08.2019 Brecon & Radnor D3
06.06.2019 Peterborough W3
20.10.2016 Witney S3
16.06.2016 Tooting S3
28.02.2013 Eastleigh H3
29.11.2012 Middlesbrough H3
29.11.2012 Croydon North S3
29.11.2012 Rotherham C3
15.11.2012 Manchester Central H3
15.12.2011 Feltham & Heston C3
09.06.2011 Belfast West M3
05.05.2011 Leicester South H3
24.07.2008 Glasgow East C3
09.02.2006 Dunfermline & West Fife R3
15.07.2004 Leicester South B3
18.09.2003 Brent East B3
22.11.2001 Ipswich W3
21.09.2000 Antrim South M3
22.06.2000 Tottenham B3
27.01.1997 Wirral South C3
29.07.1993 Christchurch B3
29.11.1990 Paisley North M3
08.11.1990 Bootle B3
24.05.1990 Bootle C3
17.05.1990 Upper Bann R3
15.06.1989 Vauxhall B3
04.05.1989 Vale of Glamorgan S3
10.11.1988 Glasgow Govan C3
10.04.1986 Fulham S3
23.01.1986 Down South M3
23.01.1986 Newry & Armagh M3
27.05.1982 Beaconsfield B3
04.03.1982 Belfast South M3
26.11.1981 Crosby B3
29.03.1979 Liverpool Edge Hill W3
01.03.1979 Knutsford B3
02.03.1978 Ilford North B3
02.12.1976 Cambridge S3
23.05.1974 Newham South S3
08.11.1973 Glasgow Govan M3

[mattb]

equally it must be quite rare for the first name on the ballot paper to be as late in the alphabet as Grey.
(10 of 17 candidates at Uxbridge are earlier).

[stodge]

This is the by-election I'm finding hardest to read.

Labour has strength around Selby and the Greens won Ouseburn (as well as running the Conservatives close in Spofforth) which are the Wards for the former Harrogate Council now in the constituency.

Independent candidates won in Tadcaster in 2022.

[Ron Swanson]

I think Labour will take it, not by much.

I don’t see Tories winning another by-election in this Parliament.

[andrewp]

Jun 27, 2023 19:36:33 GMT Ron Swanson said:

I think Labour will take it, not by much.

I don’t see Tories winning another by-election in this Parliament.

We have had this discussion before but are there any seats that they could currently hold? Would they hold Boston and Skegness or South Holland and The Deepings at the moment?

[Deleted]

South Holland and the Deepings almost certainly. Boston & Skegness would be harder because Labour do have a concentrated base of support in both towns that they can build on which makes winning individual seats a lot easier (though I think the Tories would still be favourites)

[Ron Swanson]

Jun 27, 2023 19:39:33 GMT andrewp said:

Jun 27, 2023 19:36:33 GMT Ron Swanson said:

I think Labour will take it, not by much.

I don’t see Tories winning another by-election in this Parliament.

We have had this discussion before but are there any seats that they could currently hold? Would they hold Boston and Skegness or South Holland and The Deepings at the moment?

Who knows… Lincolnshire isn’t a part of the world I am particularly familiar with.

A focused campaign by the number one challenger and paper candidacies from elsewhere… could do for them.

[jakegb]

I think this seat (out of the four) is the most likely Tory hold.

Yes the polls have widened again in Labour's favour, but not too dissimilar from the time of the local elections.
Their performance in the locals - even with some strong gains - did not indicate a knock out performance, with a lot of experts highlighting the likelihood of a hung parliament.
To overturn a 20,000 majority is a mammoth task, when you're the official opposition (not the third party); and the concrete results recently don't necessarily point to that level of success.

And is a twenty-five year old Oxbridge-educated candidate, with understandably more limited life experience, going to cut it with the electorate ??

[CatholicLeft]

Jun 27, 2023 21:33:34 GMT jakegb said:

I think this seat (out of the four) is the most likely Tory hold.

Yes the polls have widened again in Labour's favour, but not too dissimilar from the time of the local elections.
Their performance in the locals - even with some strong gains - did not indicate a knock out performance, with a lot of experts highlighting the likelihood of a hung parliament.
To overturn a 20,000 majority is a mammoth task, when you're the official opposition (not the third party); and the concrete results recently don't necessarily point to that level of success.

And is a twenty-five year old Oxbridge-educated candidate, with understandably more limited life experience, going to cut it with the electorate ??

I lived in this constituency for a long time, I can guarantee that the age of the Labour candidate won't be much of an issue (it'll get a mention, but not be a decider); the fact that a lad raised in the area went to Oxbridge will be a bonus - a local lad getting there on his own merits. Remember, the 20,000 majority is a recent shift, the three elections before that were around 13, 000, not unsurmountable in a byelection. Much of the constituency had a Labour MP in recent times (up till 2010). Brexit made a difference in 2019, it won't now.
The Tories might hold it, but the swing  to Labour will be large. I reckon Labour will gain it, as the demographic sands really feel like the run up to 1997.

[maxque]

Jun 27, 2023 19:15:18 GMT stodge said:

This is the by-election I'm finding hardest to read.

Labour has strength around Selby and the Greens won Ouseburn (as well as running the Conservatives close in Spofforth) which are the Wards for the former Harrogate Council now in the constituency.

Independent candidates won in Tadcaster in 2022.

The Harrogate Council area is dwarfed by the Selby area.

[Khunanup]

Jun 27, 2023 13:34:29 GMT johnloony said:

Jun 23, 2023 18:20:45 GMT Chris from Brum said:

Is five candidates with surnames beginning with "W" a record?

It equals the record.

I have checked all parliamentary by-elections going back to 1970, but I haven’t checked everything before 1970, and I haven’t checked general elections.

5 candidates with surnames starting with the same letter
20.07.2023 Selby & Ainsty W5
01.03.1984 Chesterfield B5

4 candidates with surnames starting with the same letter
4 plus 4
06.05.1993 Newbury B4 S4 M3

4 plus 3
20.07.2023 Uxbridge & South Ruislip B4 G3
10.07.2008 Haltemprice & Howden C4 F3 S3

4
13.01.2011 Oldham East & Saddleworth A4
12.11.2009 Glasgow North East B4
23.09.1999 Hamilton South M4
11.04.1996 Staffordshire South East S4
22.10.1981 Croydon North West B4
26.06.1980 Glasgow Central M4
07.12.1972 Uxbridge S4

3 candidates with surnames starting with the same letter
3 plus 3
19.07.2007 Sedgefield G3 H3 S3
14.02.2002 Ogmore B3 H3
25.11.1999 Kensington & Chelsea H3 S3
22.03.1990 Staffordshire Mid H3 S3
24.02.1983 Bermondsey B3 H3

3
01.12.2022 City of Chester H3
03.03.2022 Birmingham Erdington H3
06.05.2021 Hartlepool W3
01.08.2019 Brecon & Radnor D3
06.06.2019 Peterborough W3
20.10.2016 Witney S3
16.06.2016 Tooting S3
28.02.2013 Eastleigh H3
29.11.2012 Middlesbrough H3
29.11.2012 Croydon North S3
29.11.2012 Rotherham C3
15.11.2012 Manchester Central H3
15.12.2011 Feltham & Heston C3
09.06.2011 Belfast West M3
05.05.2011 Leicester South H3
24.07.2008 Glasgow East C3
09.02.2006 Dunfermline & West Fife R3
15.07.2004 Leicester South B3
18.09.2003 Brent East B3
22.11.2001 Ipswich W3
21.09.2000 Antrim South M3
22.06.2000 Tottenham B3
27.01.1997 Wirral South C3
29.07.1993 Christchurch B3
29.11.1990 Paisley North M3
08.11.1990 Bootle B3
24.05.1990 Bootle C3
17.05.1990 Upper Bann R3
15.06.1989 Vauxhall B3
04.05.1989 Vale of Glamorgan S3
10.11.1988 Glasgow Govan C3
10.04.1986 Fulham S3
23.01.1986 Down South M3
23.01.1986 Newry & Armagh M3
27.05.1982 Beaconsfield B3
04.03.1982 Belfast South M3
26.11.1981 Crosby B3
29.03.1979 Liverpool Edge Hill W3
01.03.1979 Knutsford B3
02.03.1978 Ilford North B3
02.12.1976 Cambridge S3
23.05.1974 Newham South S3
08.11.1973 Glasgow Govan M3

It doesn't equal any record, it sets it.

Only surnames starting with W matter after all...

[YL]

This appears to be the Twitter feed of Nick Palmer (Independent). He hasn't said much yet, but his profile describes him as "one of the fed up millions".

[markgoodair]

Jun 28, 2023 6:57:40 GMT YL said:

This appears to be the Twitter feed of Nick Palmer (Independent). He hasn't said much yet, but his profile describes him as "one of the fed up millions".

The grandson of the former Conserative MP for Pudsey, Joe Hiley.

[YL]

Jun 27, 2023 23:13:08 GMT maxque said:

Jun 27, 2023 19:15:18 GMT stodge said:

This is the by-election I'm finding hardest to read.

Labour has strength around Selby and the Greens won Ouseburn (as well as running the Conservatives close in Spofforth) which are the Wards for the former Harrogate Council now in the constituency.

Independent candidates won in Tadcaster in 2022.

The Harrogate Council area is dwarfed by the Selby area.

The parts formerly in Harrogate district have a March 2020 electorate of just over 10000. So yes, it's a fairly small part of the constituency, but given how weak Labour have usually been there it is big enough to make the seat noticeably harder to win.

If I have to guess, I think Labour are going to win it, but I don't think it's an easy gain even in the current environment: Labour are not the Lib Dems and don't have anything like their by-election record.