graham
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Post by graham on Jul 31, 2023 11:27:08 GMT
To avoid that, Sunak might well decide to hold the GE on May 2nd 2024. Labour did narrowly win Romford in 1997 - and under pre- 1974 boundaries it was Labour-held for many years.
If these seats fall vacant in the autumn, people are hardly likely to just twiddle their thumbs because Sunak MIGHT call an election for the following May. As said before, this isn't like not having byelections in 1997 and 2010 when we were approaching the parliament's legal maximum. Of course the PM could try to get round this by announcing a May 2024 GE well in advance, but this would be pretty much unprecedented and has possible pitfalls of its own. It would depend on the timing of a by election . Were Dorries to resign in early September when Parliament returns , it would be reasonable to expect a by election before the end of this year. However, if she hangs on until mid-November , it would be reasonable for the Tories to keep the seat vacant until circa mid- February 2024. It also now looks unlikely that the Tamworth MP will depart before mid- November. By the New Year Sunak may well have firmed up his intentions re- timing of the GE. Were he to opt for May 2nd , a Dissolution would have to occur in mid- March with the election announcement probably a week or so earlier. In such a scenario, there would be little point in calling by elections in mid- February. It does occur to me that avoiding those two awkward by elections - plus the possibility of a third at Romford - might influence Sunak's timing decision.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 31, 2023 11:35:47 GMT
To avoid that, Sunak might well decide to hold the GE on May 2nd 2024. Labour did narrowly win Romford in 1997 - and under pre- 1974 boundaries it was Labour-held for many years.
If these seats fall vacant in the autumn, people are hardly likely to just twiddle their thumbs because Sunak MIGHT call an election for the following May. As said before, this isn't like not having byelections in 1997 and 2010 when we were approaching the parliament's legal maximum. I think Sunak will max out this Parliament due to the polls.
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graham
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Post by graham on Jul 31, 2023 11:38:21 GMT
If these seats fall vacant in the autumn, people are hardly likely to just twiddle their thumbs because Sunak MIGHT call an election for the following May. As said before, this isn't like not having byelections in 1997 and 2010 when we were approaching the parliament's legal maximum. I think Sunak will max out this Parliament due to the polls. Not likely to be later than Autumn 2024.
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Post by uthacalthing on Jul 31, 2023 14:36:33 GMT
Either represent and contribute, or resign. like you did
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Post by Ron Swanson on Jul 31, 2023 15:17:31 GMT
Dorries is as thick as mince.
Not quite as thick as Liz Truss, but close.
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Post by greenhert on Jul 31, 2023 16:28:30 GMT
There was also Francis Noel-Baker who, if my memory is correct, was known in his latter years as MP for Swindon as 'the member for Athens Central' because he spent most of his time in Greece. I spent six weeks in Swindon campaigning for Chris Layton at the 1969 by-election after Noel-Baker finally resigned. he was first elected to parliament at the same election as his father Philip, for Brentford & Isleworth in 1945. Philip remained in parliament for a few months after Francis resigned before retiring and taking a peerage. Layton famously stood in the Chippenham by-election in 1962, and subsequently in the following two general elections, coming close to winning but just failing to do so. Giles Radice was the Labour candidate in both 1964 & 1966, he worked for Francis Noel-Baker before being elected to parliament himself in a by-election in 1972. 1973, not 1972.
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Post by batman on Jul 31, 2023 16:32:08 GMT
thanks, you are right & I am very surprised!
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Post by greenhert on Jul 31, 2023 16:32:47 GMT
In reading the newspaper articles about it , I found that he was, in his first year in the Commons, the MP who took part in most divisions. And the local press were full of his statements on this and that over the following years.
It seems to have been a sudden decline , which is perhaps why it was so noticeable.
There were precisely 500 divisions in the 1979-80 session. The MPs who were recorded voting in over 430 of them were: 476 Michael Jopling (C, Westmorland) 469 John Cope (C, South Gloucestershire) 466 John Stradling Thomas (C, Monmouth) 464 David Waddington (C, Clitheroe) 463 John Wakeham (C, Maldon) 462 Robert Boscawen (C, Wells) –– Hon. Peter Morrison (C, City of Chester) 460 Tristan Garel-Jones (C, Watford) 458 Tim Brinton (C, Gravesend) 453 John Wheeler (C, Paddington) 452 Hon. Anthony Berry (C, Enfield Southgate) 450 Peter Lloyd (C, Fareham) 449 Spencer Le Marchant (C, High Peak) 448 Bob Dunn (C, Dartford) 447 Hon. Peter Brooke (C, City of London and Westminster South) 446 Antony Newton (C, Braintree) 444 Iain Mills (C, Meriden) 442 Sir Graham Page (C, Crosby) 441 Lord James Douglas-Hamilton (C, Edinburgh West) –– Keith Wickenden (C, Dorking) 438 John Blackburn (C, Dudley West) –– Graham Bright (C, Luton East) –– Bob Cryer (Lab, Keighley) 436 Kenneth Carlisle (C, Lincoln) –– John MacGregor (C, South Norfolk) 434 Peggy Fenner (C, Rochester and Chatham) –– Anthony Speller (C, North Devon) 432 Donald Thompson (C, Sowerby) 431 Christopher Murphy (C, Welwyn and Hatfield) I am surprised that this list only includes Conservative and Labour MPs. What divisions were the Liberals abstaining on during that time?
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jul 31, 2023 16:44:31 GMT
There were precisely 500 divisions in the 1979-80 session. The MPs who were recorded voting in over 430 of them were: 476 Michael Jopling (C, Westmorland) 469 John Cope (C, South Gloucestershire) 466 John Stradling Thomas (C, Monmouth) 464 David Waddington (C, Clitheroe) 463 John Wakeham (C, Maldon) 462 Robert Boscawen (C, Wells) –– Hon. Peter Morrison (C, City of Chester) 460 Tristan Garel-Jones (C, Watford) 458 Tim Brinton (C, Gravesend) 453 John Wheeler (C, Paddington) 452 Hon. Anthony Berry (C, Enfield Southgate) 450 Peter Lloyd (C, Fareham) 449 Spencer Le Marchant (C, High Peak) 448 Bob Dunn (C, Dartford) 447 Hon. Peter Brooke (C, City of London and Westminster South) 446 Antony Newton (C, Braintree) 444 Iain Mills (C, Meriden) 442 Sir Graham Page (C, Crosby) 441 Lord James Douglas-Hamilton (C, Edinburgh West) –– Keith Wickenden (C, Dorking) 438 John Blackburn (C, Dudley West) –– Graham Bright (C, Luton East) –– Bob Cryer (Lab, Keighley) 436 Kenneth Carlisle (C, Lincoln) –– John MacGregor (C, South Norfolk) 434 Peggy Fenner (C, Rochester and Chatham) –– Anthony Speller (C, North Devon) 432 Donald Thompson (C, Sowerby) 431 Christopher Murphy (C, Welwyn and Hatfield) I am surprised that this list only includes Conservative and Labour MPs. What divisions were the Liberals abstaining on during that time? The figures for the Liberal MPs were: 374 - David Penhaligon 364 - Alan Beith 324 - David Alton 303 - Geraint Howells 300 - David Steel 295 - Stephen Ross 225 - Richard Wainwright 213 - Clement Freud 200 - Russell Johnston 160 - Jo Grimond 158 - Cyril Smith
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Post by eastmidlandsright on Jul 31, 2023 17:04:44 GMT
Any MP who does not have interests beyond their constituency is utterly pathetic. As for Sir Geoffrey, he is representing and contributing. If his constituents are unhappy with how he is doing that they can vote him out at the next election. I'm baffled by your defense. Well that tells me quite a lot about you. I quite understand why someone would disagree with my defence of Cox but for you to be baffled by it suggests that you are a very close minded individual who is utterly incapable of understanding an opposing point view.
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Post by uthacalthing on Jul 31, 2023 18:39:00 GMT
I'm baffled by your defense. for you to be baffled by it suggests that you are a very close minded individual who is utterly incapable of understanding an opposing point view. you are new here
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Jul 31, 2023 19:15:01 GMT
I'm baffled by your defense. Well that tells me quite a lot about you. I quite understand why someone would disagree with my defence of Cox but for you to be baffled by it suggests that you are a very close minded individual who is utterly incapable of understanding an opposing point view. I'm not the one defending an MP earning a significant wage and ignoring their duties Nadine is earning money as a columnist, a presenter, a writer, and goodness knows what else. She is currently earning a significant amount as an absent MP. In my world, Cox and Dorries would both be expelled from the House for contempt. It's s representation of your character that you think otherwise.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 31, 2023 19:45:16 GMT
for you to be baffled by it suggests that you are a very close minded individual who is utterly incapable of understanding an opposing point view. you are new here No he isn't
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nodealbrexiteer
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non aligned favour no deal brexit!
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Jul 31, 2023 19:56:27 GMT
To avoid that, Sunak might well decide to hold the GE on May 2nd 2024. Labour did narrowly win Romford in 1997 - and under pre- 1974 boundaries it was Labour-held for many years.
If these seats fall vacant in the autumn, people are hardly likely to just twiddle their thumbs because Sunak MIGHT call an election for the following May. As said before, this isn't like not having byelections in 1997 and 2010 when we were approaching the parliament's legal maximum. Of course the PM could try to get round this by announcing a May 2024 GE well in advance, but this would be pretty much unprecedented and has possible pitfalls of its own. Well if he announced it now it would be further in advance than Home in 1964 saying there would be no election until the autumn
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Post by borisminor on Jul 31, 2023 20:05:32 GMT
Announcing a date well before the Prime Minister has to removes one of the key advantages he has at his disposal, that of surprise. Although few elections are genuine snap elections, the exact date is often debated. Even if he announced in January the election would be on 2 May, he makes it a 20-week campaign. Although it would be a 'soft campaign' on paper, opposition election teams would immediately move into election footing, diverting resources, cancelling annual leave etc. It would stop all the trickle funding on advertising, which would be spread out to be suddenly congested.
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Post by eastmidlandsright on Jul 31, 2023 20:55:40 GMT
Well that tells me quite a lot about you. I quite understand why someone would disagree with my defence of Cox but for you to be baffled by it suggests that you are a very close minded individual who is utterly incapable of understanding an opposing point view. I'm not the one defending an MP earning a significant wage and ignoring their duties Nadine is earning money as a columnist, a presenter, a writer, and goodness knows what else. She is currently earning a significant amount as an absent MP. In my world, Cox and Dorries would both be expelled from the House for contempt. It's s representation of your character that you think otherwise. I do not accept that Sir Geoffrey is ignoring his duties and if he is that is for his constituents to pass judgement on at the next election. I much prefer an MP to speak occasionally and with purpose than frequently while adding little. He led a Westminster Hall debate on a matter of significant local importance and seems to have been working with other Devon MPs on that matter so he hardly seems to be ignoring his constituency. Also do you not realise that influential MPs, especially former ministers, often operate behind the scenes to get things done. Having an MP who knows how government works and how to properly present a case to those making or influencing the decision is of immense value. Ken Clarke was very good at pushing projects in his constituency and the rest of Nottinghamshire, far more so than other MPs who endlessly raised constituency matters in the House but didn't know how to get things done. As for Dorries, my defence of her was much more qualified and frankly I hold her in low regard. That doesn't mean I would like to see her expelled from the House. It would set a terrible precedent that could easily be abused in the future.
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CatholicLeft
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Post by CatholicLeft on Jul 31, 2023 21:19:21 GMT
Announcing a date well before the Prime Minister has to removes one of the key advantages he has at his disposal, that of surprise. Although few elections are genuine snap elections, the exact date is often debated. Even if he announced in January the election would be on 2 May, he makes it a 20-week campaign. Although it would be a 'soft campaign' on paper, opposition election teams would immediately move into election footing, diverting resources, cancelling annual leave etc. It would stop all the trickle funding on advertising, which would be spread out to be suddenly congested. If Rishi Sunak wants to preserve his party's activist base and rebuild after what promises to be a dire general election defeat, it makes sense to hold the election on May 2nd, 2024, as the increased turnout will likely save many of the Tory councillors' seats. He doesn't need to announce it until closer to the time, and byelection defeats are pretty much part of the planning now anyway. If he chooses to wait till the Autumn, due to still dire opinion polls earlier in the year, then he has fewer activists' likely to be up to campaigning for him as they will be feeling the pain of heavy defeats in the local elections. Holding on till the beginning of 2025 will likely make his party's defeat even heavier. I suspect he will want to go in Autumn, but will be tempted to hold on as long as he can, in the hope something comes up.
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on Aug 1, 2023 13:53:38 GMT
Announcing a date well before the Prime Minister has to removes one of the key advantages he has at his disposal, that of surprise. Although few elections are genuine snap elections, the exact date is often debated. Even if he announced in January the election would be on 2 May, he makes it a 20-week campaign. Although it would be a 'soft campaign' on paper, opposition election teams would immediately move into election footing, diverting resources, cancelling annual leave etc. It would stop all the trickle funding on advertising, which would be spread out to be suddenly congested. One recent example from a Westminster system of a Prime Minister announcing a general election date ahead of time was Julia Gillard announcing the date of the 2013 federal election a whole year in advance. She was ousted as party leader with a couple of months to go, and then Labor lost heavily regardless so it's fair to say that strategy didn't work out for her or her party. Not sure if Sunak was taking notes on Commonwealth politics at the time, but somebody at Tory HQ will have been.
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Post by andrewteale on Aug 1, 2023 13:56:58 GMT
Announcing a date well before the Prime Minister has to removes one of the key advantages he has at his disposal, that of surprise. Although few elections are genuine snap elections, the exact date is often debated. Even if he announced in January the election would be on 2 May, he makes it a 20-week campaign. Although it would be a 'soft campaign' on paper, opposition election teams would immediately move into election footing, diverting resources, cancelling annual leave etc. It would stop all the trickle funding on advertising, which would be spread out to be suddenly congested. One recent example from a Westminster system of a Prime Minister announcing a general election date ahead of time was Julia Gillard announcing the date of the 2013 federal election a whole year in advance. She was ousted as party leader with a couple of months to go, and then Labor lost heavily regardless so it's fair to say that strategy didn't work out for her or her party. Not sure if Sunak was taking notes on Commonwealth politics at the time, but somebody at Tory HQ will have been. David Cameron announced the date of the 2015 general election five years in advance, and went on it win it.
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nodealbrexiteer
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non aligned favour no deal brexit!
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Aug 1, 2023 14:16:04 GMT
One recent example from a Westminster system of a Prime Minister announcing a general election date ahead of time was Julia Gillard announcing the date of the 2013 federal election a whole year in advance. She was ousted as party leader with a couple of months to go, and then Labor lost heavily regardless so it's fair to say that strategy didn't work out for her or her party. Not sure if Sunak was taking notes on Commonwealth politics at the time, but somebody at Tory HQ will have been. David Cameron announced the date of the 2015 general election five years in advance, and went on it win it. Liked as it made me smile not because I was happy with the result
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