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Post by agbutler on Jun 19, 2023 11:25:01 GMT
So why are Labour fighting this properly when they didn't fight in North Shropshie. North Shropshire is a different place to Mid Bedfordshire
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graham
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Post by graham on Jun 19, 2023 11:43:29 GMT
So why are Labour fighting this properly when they didn't fight in North Shropshie. Were North Shropshire to be taking place now - or at any time since mid-2022- Labour would surely have fought the seat seriously and been in contention. Moreover, it is far from clear that the LDs would have emerged as the main challenger to the Tories.
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Jun 19, 2023 12:02:13 GMT
So why are Labour fighting this properly when they didn't fight in North Shropshie. North Shropshire is a different place to Mid Bedfordshire I mean, yes, but not in a way that is actually negative for Labour. The fact that there's clearly a bit more effort going on in this case reflects that the polls are rather different now more than anything else.
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Post by stb12 on Jun 19, 2023 12:08:54 GMT
I suppose at the time of North Shropshire a defeat for the government would still have been seen as necessary to further damage them and build momentum for the opposition in general
With what has happened since I think it’s highly unlikely the Tories are going to recover for the next election even if they did hold onto one or two of these by-elections via a split opposition vote
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Post by grahammurray on Jun 19, 2023 12:15:23 GMT
So why are Labour fighting this properly when they didn't fight in North Shropshie. They did fight in North Shropshire and were in line to win it even in polling week. They said so.
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Jun 19, 2023 12:16:00 GMT
Just for context, the average of the last 5 national polls taken before each of the key by elections in this parliament and the last 5 now
Hartlepool Con 41.6% Lab 29.4% LD 6.8% Chesham and Amersham Con 43.2% Lab 33.2% LD 7.2% Old Bexley and Sidcup Con 36.6% Lab 36% LD 9.4% North Shropshire Con 32.4% Lab 38% LD 9.8% Wakefield/ Tiverton and Honiton Con 33% Lab 38.8% LD 12.4%
Now Con 28.6% Lab 44.6% LD 11%
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ricmk
Lib Dem
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Post by ricmk on Jun 19, 2023 12:17:34 GMT
Emma Holland-Lindsay wins the Lib Dem selection.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 19, 2023 13:22:41 GMT
So why are Labour fighting this properly when they didn't fight in North Shropshie. But for a while, Labour *did* fight North Shropshire hard - and the LibDems weren't happy about it. They eased off somewhat once the outcome became obvious, but still did enough to ensure their vote didn't totally disappear as it had done in Chesham and Amersham six months before.
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Post by robert1 on Jun 19, 2023 13:40:25 GMT
So why are Labour fighting this properly when they didn't fight in North Shropshie. North Shropshire is a different place to Mid Bedfordshire Pedant alert- ....different place from......
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Khunanup
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Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
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Post by Khunanup on Jun 19, 2023 17:13:42 GMT
So why are Labour fighting this properly when they didn't fight in North Shropshie. They did.
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Post by batman on Jun 19, 2023 18:18:41 GMT
Emma Holland-Lindsay wins the Lib Dem selection. for completeness she should be called Holland-Lindsey-Kesteven
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J.G.Harston
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Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
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Post by J.G.Harston on Jun 19, 2023 19:20:32 GMT
Emma Holland-Lindsay wins the Lib Dem selection. for completeness she should be called Holland-Lindsey-Kesteven A woman of many parts?
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Post by andrewteale on Jun 19, 2023 22:57:15 GMT
Emma Holland-Lindsay wins the Lib Dem selection. for completeness she should be called Holland-Lindsey-Kesteven Missing Lincs.
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iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on Jun 21, 2023 13:06:31 GMT
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
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Post by CatholicLeft on Jun 21, 2023 17:58:12 GMT
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Post by jakegb on Jun 21, 2023 18:26:06 GMT
Not surprised the Lib Dems are ahead on the leaflets; in the 2019 general election, I remember receiving significantly more correspondence from the Lib Dems than the Tories and Labour (who both polled well ahead of them in the final count - Portsmouth S).
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Post by greenhert on Jun 21, 2023 18:37:39 GMT
So when is this by-election actually going to occur?
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Jun 21, 2023 19:12:00 GMT
Nadine says the 29th Smarch
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graham
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Post by graham on Jun 21, 2023 19:40:37 GMT
A poll here now would be interesting - and might swing the betting markets which at the moment are probably based on what happened in earlier by elections rather than any real information on the ground here.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jun 21, 2023 19:45:01 GMT
I would imagine it makes a significant difference which village it is - there are going to be some areas with higher levels of Labour potential or Lib Dem activism than others.
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