Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 12,005
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Post by Khunanup on Aug 1, 2023 18:47:50 GMT
Labour's candidate is Michael Shanks. I presume he's taking a break from going through stargates... |
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Post by afleitch on Aug 1, 2023 19:14:26 GMT
The pressure will be on for both Labour and the SNP here, with the Tories - for once - breathing a temporary sigh of relief. I anticipate a Labour win, by a modest, if not insignificant, margin. Consider the 2021 by-election in Airdrie and Shotts, with Labour and the SNP swapping places. Turnout will likely be low. Again - similar to the English by-elections - are the good people of Ruthurglen + Hamilton West convinced by a Keir Starmer-led Labour government increasingly moving rightwards on key policy? They may reject the SNP, granted, but are they prepared to come out in support of Labour in large numbers ...? I'm sceptical. The problem for Labour comes in fighting the seat. As this is a Westminster by-election, what Labour policy will their candidate be advocating for? Labour policy, or Scottish Labour policy? There is a divergence and an uneasy one at that on 'two child' benefits, the bedroom tax and other non-devolved matters. That could make for a less than straightforward campaign. Again, still a likely Labour win. I would have expected it to be six months ago too given the 2017 performance. |
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Post by uthacalthing on Aug 1, 2023 19:16:01 GMT
It is a trivial reason to end a parliamentary career, but it was, let's face, it a worthless parliamentary career and her tribe were first and foremost in playing the man with no reference to the ball, so who cares?
Why 10%? Why 5% to hold a deposit? To my mind, 10% is wholly more satisfactory than 5% or 12.5%
I expect Labour to win to such an extent that I shall offer this hostage to fortune.
I expect the next GE result in Scotland to read approx SLab 30, SNP 15, Con 7, LD 7.
But imagine if it reads approx SLab 40 SNP 5, Con 7, LD 7. And Humza Useless still has a year to run as FM.
OK, not likely, but I honestly think it is as plausible as the SNP winning 30 seats
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Post by uthacalthing on Aug 1, 2023 19:18:12 GMT
The problem for Labour comes in fighting the seat. As this is a Westminster by-election, what Labour policy will their candidate be advocating for? Labour policy, or Scottish Labour policy? There is a divergence and an uneasy one at that on 'two child' benefits, the bedroom tax and other non-devolved matters. That could make for a less than straightforward campaign. you are clutching at straws. It won't matter. |
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Post by tamar on Aug 1, 2023 19:23:58 GMT
I must confess I thought it would be more than that. This will be a fascinating by-election between the SNP and Labour Running the petition almost entirely over the school holidays probably pushed it down a bit, that plus general high levels of apathy. As scary as it is to think about, her offence was also almost three years ago. It's not easy to stay angry for that long... |
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Aug 1, 2023 19:41:12 GMT
The pressure will be on for both Labour and the SNP here, with the Tories - for once - breathing a temporary sigh of relief. I anticipate a Labour win, by a modest, if not insignificant, margin. Consider the 2021 by-election in Airdrie and Shotts, with Labour and the SNP swapping places. Turnout will likely be low. Again - similar to the English by-elections - are the good people of Ruthurglen + Hamilton West convinced by a Keir Starmer-led Labour government increasingly moving rightwards on key policy? They may reject the SNP, granted, but are they prepared to come out in support of Labour in large numbers ...? I'm sceptical. The problem for Labour comes in fighting the seat. As this is a Westminster by-election, what Labour policy will their candidate be advocating for? Labour policy, or Scottish Labour policy? There is a divergence and an uneasy one at that on 'two child' benefits, the bedroom tax and other non-devolved matters. That could make for a less than straightforward campaign. Again, still a likely Labour win. I would have expected it to be six months ago too given the 2017 performance. Any differences will be gold for the SNP. I would say the same for "the media", but as this is happening in Scotland I dare say few London papers will bother covering it. |
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Post by afleitch on Aug 1, 2023 19:41:41 GMT
The problem for Labour comes in fighting the seat. As this is a Westminster by-election, what Labour policy will their candidate be advocating for? Labour policy, or Scottish Labour policy? There is a divergence and an uneasy one at that on 'two child' benefits, the bedroom tax and other non-devolved matters. That could make for a less than straightforward campaign. you are clutching at straws. It won't matter. I'm absolutely not! I'd eat my hat if the SNP won. 😊 But the policy divisions between the Scottish party and the main party and the general uncomfort is clear. That's not exclusive to the Scottish parties relationship to the main party; it's part of a broader ideological difference in Starmer's recent announcements. |
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stb12
Top Poster
Posts: 8,367 
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Post by stb12 on Aug 1, 2023 19:48:31 GMT
The Tories and Lib Dems will do virtually no campaigning here
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,714
Member is Online
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Post by CatholicLeft on Aug 1, 2023 19:56:15 GMT
The Tories and Lib Dems will do virtually no campaigning here You say that, but the Tory candidate is the leader of the Tory group on Glasgow City Council, so will be wanting to make a bit of a mark. What will the Greens do, given that Stephen Flynn, for understandable personal electoral reasons, has not exactly been shouting too loudly about Sunaks "Drill, Baby, Drill" policy. |
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stb12
Top Poster
Posts: 8,367
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Post by stb12 on Aug 1, 2023 20:01:17 GMT
The Tories and Lib Dems will do virtually no campaigning here You say that, but the Tory candidate is the leader of the Tory group on Glasgow City Council, so will be wanting to make a bit of a mark. What will the Greens do, given that Stephen Flynn, for understandable personal electoral reasons, has not exactly been shouting too loudly about Sunaks "Drill, Baby, Drill" policy. The Scottish Tories have been the most willing of all the unionist parties to put their interests aside for the sake of anti-SNP moves when you look at some of the council arrangements. Even if they haven’t selected a nobody as their candidate I’d be surprised if they pushed too hard under the circumstances I’d expect the Greens to put a candidate up, for the reasons you state but also because their agreement is separate from Westminster politics |
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Post by manchesterman on Aug 1, 2023 20:01:25 GMT
you are clutching at straws. It won't matter. I'm absolutely not! I'd eat my hat if the SNP won. 😊 But the policy divisions between the Scottish party and the main party and the general uncomfort is clear. That's not exclusive to the Scottish parties relationship to the main party; it's part of a broader ideological difference in Starmer's recent announcements. Marpizan hat? |
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,714
Member is Online
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Post by CatholicLeft on Aug 1, 2023 20:02:14 GMT
You say that, but the Tory candidate is the leader of the Tory group on Glasgow City Council, so will be wanting to make a bit of a mark. What will the Greens do, given that Stephen Flynn, for understandable personal electoral reasons, has not exactly been shouting too loudly about Sunaks "Drill, Baby, Drill" policy. The Scottish Tories have been the most willing of all the unionist parties to put their interests aside for the sake of anti-SNP moves when you look at some of the council arrangements. Even if they haven’t selected a nobody as their candidate I’d be surprised if they pushed too hard under the circumstances I am being a bit tongue in cheek - he leads a group of 2. |
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stb12
Top Poster
Posts: 8,367
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Post by stb12 on Aug 1, 2023 20:06:14 GMT
The Scottish Tories have been the most willing of all the unionist parties to put their interests aside for the sake of anti-SNP moves when you look at some of the council arrangements. Even if they haven’t selected a nobody as their candidate I’d be surprised if they pushed too hard under the circumstances I am being a bit tongue in cheek - he leads a grouo of 2. Indeed but I have actually heard of Thomas Kerr, he was a young Better Together activist and has worked his way up the party since the referendum. Obviously in Glasgow there are fairly limited electoral opportunities for Tories even under PR systems and this constituency isn’t in Glasgow, even though Rutherglen has at times been considered part of Glasgow unofficially for years when it left in 1996 |
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Aug 1, 2023 20:09:08 GMT
you are clutching at straws. It won't matter. I'm absolutely not! I'd eat my hat if the SNP won. 😊 But the policy divisions between the Scottish party and the main party and the general uncomfort is clear. That's not exclusive to the Scottish parties relationship to the main party; it's part of a broader ideological difference in Starmer's recent announcements. Is the gap between "Starmer Labour" and "Scottish Labour" the widest of all the gaps between Westminster and Edinburgh? |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Aug 1, 2023 20:13:08 GMT
The Tories and Lib Dems will do virtually no campaigning here You say that, but the Tory candidate is the leader of the Tory group on Glasgow City Council, so will be wanting to make a bit of a mark. What will the Greens do, given that Stephen Flynn, for understandable personal electoral reasons, has not exactly been shouting too loudly about Sunaks "Drill, Baby, Drill" policy. I’d expect the Greens to put a candidate up, for the reasons you state but also because their agreement is separate from Westminster politics I hope we stand, mainly because I think we should always stand when we can, but also to avoid the inevitable standing aside for the Nats accusations, But it is a seat that we've never contested, so I wouldn't put money on it... |
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Post by markgoodair on Aug 1, 2023 20:16:05 GMT
Ewan Hoyle will be the UK Volt candidate.
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Aug 1, 2023 20:42:28 GMT
Ewan Hoyle will be the UK Volt candidate. Yeah, "True and Whatever" claimed they were going to stand in Uxbridge. |
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Post by greatkingrat on Aug 1, 2023 20:45:41 GMT
Ewan Hoyle will be the UK Volt candidate. Hopefully he will electrify the contest. |
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Post by Arthur Figgis on Aug 1, 2023 20:47:07 GMT
Ewan Hoyle will be the UK Volt candidate. Hopefully he will electrify the contest. He’s a shocking candidate. |
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Post by aargauer on Aug 1, 2023 20:52:49 GMT
Hopefully he will electrify the contest. He’s a shocking candidate. Watt a dreadful pun. |
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