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Post by LDCaerdydd on Jun 18, 2023 10:47:54 GMT
After all it takes some effort to sign the recall petition. Not for the c20% who have a postal vote it doesn’t. |
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Post by greatkingrat on Jun 18, 2023 10:56:19 GMT
I do wonder whether there is actually any point in the recall petition stage at all? Just go straight to a recall election, and if the electorate feel the offence is minor enough, they can just re-elect the incumbent. Even in the North Antrim case, it would have been quicker and cheaper to just have a by-election on 1 day which Paisley would have won, rather than petition signing dragging on for 6 weeks.
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J.G.Harston
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Post by J.G.Harston on Jun 18, 2023 16:57:34 GMT
I do wonder whether there is actually any point in the recall petition stage at all? Is that a question or not? You've written it as a statement, but you're stuck a question mark at the end. Are you asking for a response? In which case your sentence is laid out wrong. Or is it a statement? In which case the question mark is wrong. I'm seeing more and more of this. People making statements with question marks at the end? |
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batman
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Post by batman on Jun 18, 2023 17:29:20 GMT
yeah right?
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Post by uthacalthing on Jun 18, 2023 22:21:40 GMT
For a bit of personal trivia, I was born in this seat although I’ve never lived in it. There was a dedicated maternity hospital in Rutherglen and a lot of expectant mothers in South Lanarkshire as well as the Southside area of Glasgow were sent there including mine It is now long closed See also Cinderford in the Forest of Dean. Closing that was an appalling act of cultural vandalism as well as an inconvenience for a lot people Cinderford is the most horrid place I have encountered in years in an otherwise lovely county. How did that bit of Maesteg get relocated to Gloucestershire? |
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Post by uthacalthing on Jun 18, 2023 22:23:33 GMT
I hope the threshold is not met. It would pain all the right people.
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Jun 19, 2023 1:10:16 GMT
See also Cinderford in the Forest of Dean. Closing that was an appalling act of cultural vandalism as well as an inconvenience for a lot people Cinderford is the most horrid place I have encountered in years in an otherwise lovely county. How did that bit of Maesteg get relocated to Gloucestershire? Lydney is a bit grim too. Both felt a bit like a real life David Lynch movie. |
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riccimarsh
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Post by riccimarsh on Jun 19, 2023 1:15:03 GMT
Cinderford is the most horrid place I have encountered in years in an otherwise lovely county. How did that bit of Maesteg get relocated to Gloucestershire? Lydney is a bit grim too. Both felt a bit like a real life David Lynch movie. That’s the first time I’ve heard Cinderford and Maesteg compared to Los Angeles  |
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ricmk
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Post by ricmk on Jun 19, 2023 10:01:15 GMT
I do wonder whether there is actually any point in the recall petition stage at all? Just go straight to a recall election, and if the electorate feel the offence is minor enough, they can just re-elect the incumbent. Even in the North Antrim case, it would have been quicker and cheaper to just have a by-election on 1 day which Paisley would have won, rather than petition signing dragging on for 6 weeks. It probably influences selection. I think (I'm sure the nerds experts will correct me) that Chris Davies in Brecon is the only recalled MP to date who was then reselected by his own party to fight the by-election. If you go straight to by-election without a recall, the party has to decide whether to back / sack the incumbent without any evidence of how the constituents think, and there's a risk that trivial Westminster issues that don't really get people talking in the pub will trigger unwanted by-elections. The Brecon expenses the obvious example again - put that in a rock solid seat with a popular and sorry incumbent and easy to imagine the threshold not met. No such thing as an unwanted by-election for us of course, but they don't come cheap for campaigners or administrators. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jun 19, 2023 10:14:48 GMT
I do wonder whether there is actually any point in the recall petition stage at all? Just go straight to a recall election, and if the electorate feel the offence is minor enough, they can just re-elect the incumbent. Even in the North Antrim case, it would have been quicker and cheaper to just have a by-election on 1 day which Paisley would have won, rather than petition signing dragging on for 6 weeks. It probably influences selection. I think (I'm sure the nerds experts will correct me) that Chris Davies in Brecon is the only recalled MP to date who was then reselected by his own party to fight the by-election. If you go straight to by-election without a recall, the party has to decide whether to back / sack the incumbent without any evidence of how the constituents think, and there's a risk that trivial Westminster issues that don't really get people talking in the pub will trigger unwanted by-elections. The Brecon expenses the obvious example again - put that in a rock solid seat with a popular and sorry incumbent and easy to imagine the threshold not met. No such thing as an unwanted by-election for us of course, but they don't come cheap for campaigners or administrators. Brecon and Radnorshire is also an example that shows an errant MP does not necessarily stand no chance of being re-elected. The byelection took place at a time when the Liberal Democrats were doing notably well in national polling and were fighting against an MP who had a criminal conviction for trying to get public money to which he was not entitled - and yet they only just won. Ian Paisley would undoubtedly have won a North Antrim byelection had the recall petition had 500 more signatures. |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jun 19, 2023 10:53:09 GMT
I don't see any obvious reason why the "ennui" here should be significantly greater than in Peterborough or Brecon and Radnor. And the one (narrow) failure to recall, in North Antrim, was largely due to the minimal number of signing places - that also shouldn't be a problem here. I suspect the number of signing places was less of an issue than it being North Antrim. |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 19, 2023 10:56:27 GMT
Given that there was almost a recall despite it being North Antrim, it is rather a moot point. Though yes I agree that Paisley Jnr would likely have won any byelection.
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Jun 19, 2023 12:13:36 GMT
Lydney is a bit grim too. Both felt a bit like a real life David Lynch movie. David Lynch is a big Dennis Potter fan, as it happens. |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 19, 2023 13:19:25 GMT
Despite its grimness, these days Lydney usually votes Tory (in contrast to Cinderford, still Labour's main stronghold in the FoD)
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Post by uthacalthing on Jun 19, 2023 13:23:28 GMT
Yes, Cinderford looked Labour. Vandalised, graffitied, utterly lacking in self-respect. I expect lots of good kids leave Cinderford for the bright lights of Brum
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Jun 19, 2023 14:02:13 GMT
What I would say is that Lydney's social problems are no worse than, say, Ludlow's. But it is rather shabby, which makes things look worse than they are.
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jimboo2017
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Post by jimboo2017 on Jun 19, 2023 19:15:46 GMT
This constituency has given me my biggest ever percentage win on a bet (trivial in monetary terms though) when I got I think 18/1 on a Labour gain in 2017. I don't suppose the odds will be so generous this time.. go for a labour getting 45% - 50% |
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Jun 20, 2023 8:00:28 GMT
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Chris from Brum
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Post by Chris from Brum on Jun 20, 2023 8:06:13 GMT
She's doomed and she knows it.
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Post by carlton43 on Jun 20, 2023 8:15:19 GMT
Good statement. Obviously I hope the petition fails and fails miserably. These petitions are an odious invention and play to all the worst of human traits and to outright political tribalism. Bad conduct is to be judged at the ballot at the end of the cycle. If conduct is considered too bad to endure then the HOC can vote to expell the MP and a by-election will follow. And she has no 'crime' to answer and if it were to be acknowledged as such, it is so very minor as to derserve a very minor suspension or modest dressing down by the Speaker in front of the assembly. This is just another form of gormless grandstanding that the political classes have so taken to. We have ditched three PMs in a row, forced one out of the commons, suspended/unwhipped dozens of MPs and generally now all carry on as if MPs were not human beings at all and must show no signs of individuality or humain frailty of any sort. No system can survive this madness. |
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