The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,067
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 14, 2024 9:45:54 GMT
It’s not often the leading party is on less than 30 percent in the UK. We’re becoming increasingly less like the USA and more like continental Europe in our voting patterns. We had a period in mid-2019 when polling regularly showed this, a few had a four way pile up with the top party on 23-24 per cent. But then Johnson became Tory leader and set about calling his "Brexit" election, and that changed dramatically. Things could have majorly altered again by the time of the next GE. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Sept 14, 2024 14:20:14 GMT
Yes, and of course in 2017 two party politics was back for good
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Post by aargauer on Sept 14, 2024 14:24:11 GMT
If this becomes the norm, some form of pr is inevitable. You can’t have majority governments on 20something% of the vote and expect them to have legitimacy. I would be amazed if both major parties get below 30. It's obviously all to play for in a way it wasn't in 1997 to 2001, and basically anything could happen from here, from a repeat of 2024, to SDP levels of collapse. |
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Post by hullenedge on Sept 26, 2024 18:18:18 GMT
Little change:-
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Post by Andrew_S on Oct 1, 2024 11:16:23 GMT
deleted, not a VI question
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Post by mattbewilson on Oct 1, 2024 11:30:33 GMT
I don't think this was Westminster VI |
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Post by Andrew_S on Oct 1, 2024 11:34:45 GMT
I don't think this was Westminster VI I'll delete it if it isn't. |
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Post by mattbewilson on Oct 1, 2024 11:41:01 GMT
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Post by hullenedge on Oct 8, 2024 6:22:58 GMT
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graham
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,350
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Post by graham on Oct 8, 2024 8:02:44 GMT
That would see the Tories recovering to above 200 seats. Labour would have a bare majority.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,067
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 8, 2024 14:05:56 GMT
Not only is this still a bit of an outlier at present, it also contains MiC's usual "predictive" element. None of this means it is actually wrong, of course.
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Oct 8, 2024 16:23:12 GMT
A majority with 1% lead would be almost indefensible.
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Post by swanarcadian on Oct 8, 2024 16:28:24 GMT
Well it’s encouraging and unexpected so soon after the general election. But it would feel better with “confirmation” for want of a better word from the other pollsters which are currently showing Labour ahead by about 4-9 points.
Again, it’s looking like poll results from a continental European country using PR as opposed to, say, the US.
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nodealbrexiteer
Forum Regular
non aligned favour no deal brexit!
Posts: 4,463
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Oct 8, 2024 17:13:26 GMT
A majority with 1% lead would be almost indefensible. is this an advert for PR?  |
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nodealbrexiteer
Forum Regular
non aligned favour no deal brexit!
Posts: 4,463
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Oct 8, 2024 17:14:08 GMT
Well it’s encouraging and unexpected so soon after the general election. But it would feel better with “confirmation” for want of a better word from the other pollsters which are currently showing Labour ahead by about 4-9 points. Again, it’s looking like poll results from a continental European country using PR as opposed to, say, the US. Liked for everything after the first sentence  |
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Post by kitesurfer on Oct 8, 2024 17:19:43 GMT
This is all just a bit of fun really with it being so long until the next election, but it would be interesting to see how the Lib Dems deal with Labour being unpopular. If they carry on being an anti-Conservative party and one that seems sympathetic to Labour, I can see them losing an awful lot of seats to the Tories. They could even end up going back to less than 20. With regard to Labour, I guess they would also lose many seats to the SNP again who may suddenly find that they win in 2026.
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Post by mattbewilson on Oct 8, 2024 17:26:42 GMT
A majority with 1% lead would be almost indefensible. 1951 election is calling |
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Post by swanarcadian on Oct 8, 2024 18:04:22 GMT
A majority with 1% lead would be almost indefensible. 1951 election is calling -0.8 These days that would surely lead to a hung parliament, which actually seems a probable outcome in 2029. The Lib Dems would surely want to tread very carefully before entering any Coalition, given their experience of 2010-5. A referendum on AV won’t be on the table; it would have to be much more than that. |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,931
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Post by Tony Otim on Oct 8, 2024 18:43:55 GMT
A majority with 1% lead would be almost indefensible. A majority with just 29% of the vote would be utterly indefensible... |
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Post by johnloony on Oct 8, 2024 18:55:33 GMT
A majority with 1% lead would be almost indefensible. A majority with just 29% of the vote would be utterly indefensible... No it wouldn’t |
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