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Post by mattbewilson on Oct 8, 2024 19:14:01 GMT
A majority with just 29% of the vote would be utterly indefensible... No it wouldn’t what's your line? 25%? 19%? |
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Post by johnloony on Oct 8, 2024 19:17:47 GMT
what's your line? 25%? 19%? There is no “line”. That’s the point. Just as there is no “post” (despite the name). If people think that FPTP is the best electoral system for a particular purpose, or in particular circumstances, then it doesn’t necessarily depend on adding extra clauses which say “except if” or “but only if” bla bla bla something-about-arbitrary percentages or numbers. |
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Post by mattbewilson on Oct 8, 2024 20:21:40 GMT
what's your line? 25%? 19%? There is no “line”. That’s the point. Just as there is no “post” (despite the name). If people think that FPTP is the best electoral system for a particular purpose, or in particular circumstances, then it doesn’t necessarily depend on adding extra clauses which say “except if” or “but only if” bla bla bla something-about-arbitrary percentages or numbers. that seems like a rather ridged position. I can see the point of FPTP if you have two or three parties but once you start getting into multiple parties and threshold of victory is significantly lower in this system surely it begs the question do we need reform. |
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polupolu
Lib Dem
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Posts: 1,261 
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Post by polupolu on Oct 8, 2024 20:53:51 GMT
There is no “line”. That’s the point. Just as there is no “post” (despite the name). If people think that FPTP is the best electoral system for a particular purpose, or in particular circumstances, then it doesn’t necessarily depend on adding extra clauses which say “except if” or “but only if” bla bla bla something-about-arbitrary percentages or numbers. that seems like a rather ridged position. I can see the point of FPTP if you have two or three parties but once you start getting into multiple parties and threshold of victory is significantly lower in this system surely it begs the question do we need reform. There is almost nothing to be said in favour of FPTP when four parties in the 10% to 30% range and a fifth is not far off that. |
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Post by islington on Oct 8, 2024 21:15:52 GMT
There is no “line”. That’s the point. Just as there is no “post” (despite the name). If people think that FPTP is the best electoral system for a particular purpose, or in particular circumstances, then it doesn’t necessarily depend on adding extra clauses which say “except if” or “but only if” bla bla bla something-about-arbitrary percentages or numbers. that seems like a rather ridged position. I can see the point of FPTP if you have two or three parties but once you start getting into multiple parties and threshold of victory is significantly lower in this system surely it begs the question do we need reform. There is an argument that the case for FPTP is even stronger if voters scatter their support among a large number of parties, because such a situation is potentially chaotic and it's important to focus support on a smaller number of parties to generate more coherent politics (one hopes). At this year's GE it was widely assumed that a huge Labour win would result (as indeed it did) so it may be that voters felt they could support minor parties without risking the overall outcome. It will be interesting to see what happens next time if the outcome looks closer. My guess is that support would tend to drift back to Labour and the Tories (assuming they look like being the biggest two parties as the election nears). But then again, I was sure the Lib Dems would hugely underperform most expectations in July, so what do I know? Incidentally, I know some (not all) modern dictionaries accept that 'to beg the question' can be used to mean merely 'to raise the question' but I taught that it means to argue in a manner that assumes the truth of a proposition without offering any justification for it. For instance, if I argue that because 2x2=5, and 5x2=10, therefore 4x2=10, you might respond that this reasoning begs the question of whether 2x2 does in fact equal 5. |
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Foggy
Non-Aligned
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Post by Foggy on Oct 9, 2024 0:05:53 GMT
There is no “line”. That’s the point. Just as there is no “post” (despite the name). If people think that FPTP is the best electoral system for a particular purpose, or in particular circumstances, then it doesn’t necessarily depend on adding extra clauses which say “except if” or “but only if” bla bla bla something-about-arbitrary percentages or numbers. that seems like a rather ridged position. Nah, it's not the real McCoy's. |
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The Bishop
Labour
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 10, 2024 12:38:57 GMT
This is all just a bit of fun really with it being so long until the next election, but it would be interesting to see how the Lib Dems deal with Labour being unpopular. If they carry on being an anti-Conservative party and one that seems sympathetic to Labour, I can see them losing an awful lot of seats to the Tories. They could even end up going back to less than 20. With regard to Labour, I guess they would also lose many seats to the SNP again who may suddenly find that they win in 2026. I think it is still a bit soon to get excited about Labour losing loads of seats at the next election, never mind other parties. The claim that Labour's win last time was "shallow", despite the big majority, is often made and does have some truth in it. But what might follow on from that, even though it doesn't seem to have occurred to many, is that their current fall in popularity is *also* pretty shallow - driven as much as anything by a drama addicted media obsessing over process stories and poor government comms (which means the previous fixation has not been properly challenged) If this government gets the fundamentals anything like correct in the coming years, they are highly likely to win again. |
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graham
Non-Aligned
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Post by graham on Oct 10, 2024 12:48:50 GMT
This is all just a bit of fun really with it being so long until the next election, but it would be interesting to see how the Lib Dems deal with Labour being unpopular. If they carry on being an anti-Conservative party and one that seems sympathetic to Labour, I can see them losing an awful lot of seats to the Tories. They could even end up going back to less than 20. With regard to Labour, I guess they would also lose many seats to the SNP again who may suddenly find that they win in 2026. I think it is still a bit soon to get excited about Labour losing loads of seats at the next election, never mind other parties. The claim that Labour's win last time was "shallow", despite the big majority, is often made and does have some truth in it. But what might follow on from that, even though it doesn't seem to have occurred to many, is that their current fall in popularity is *also* pretty shallow - driven as much as anything by a drama addicted media obsessing over process stories and poor government comms (which means the previous fixation has not been properly challenged) If this government gets the fundamentals anything like correct in the coming years, they are highly likely to win again. The point made is not unreasonable - but I would add that 'first impressions do matter.' Starmer failed to inspire as Opposition leader and Labour won in spite of him. His first three months in office have almost certainly added to the doubts many had about his suitability for such a political role. Having now been leader for 4.5 years, I really do not see him having the political skills to dig himself out of these difficulties. |
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Raddy
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Post by Raddy on Oct 10, 2024 14:39:24 GMT
The claim that "Labour's win last time was "shallow", despite the big majority, is often made and does have some truth in it. But what might follow on from that, even though it doesn't seem to have occurred to many, is that their current fall in popularity is *also* pretty shallow - driven as much as anything by a drama addicted media obsessing over process stories and poor government comms " You seem to have forgotten the graft and sleaze in your analysis of their fall, not forgetting the pissed off pensioners on the bones off their arse, and their families if course who might have something to say about it and won't forget. As for 'pretty shallow', you might be a glass is half empty guy in opposition, and of course a glass is half full guy in government, I would advise against diving in the deep end at the swimming pool when it's only 20% full, as it's tantamount to suicide, and that is what your party is metaphorically trying to do |
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Post by aargauer on Oct 10, 2024 16:26:31 GMT
This is all just a bit of fun really with it being so long until the next election, but it would be interesting to see how the Lib Dems deal with Labour being unpopular. If they carry on being an anti-Conservative party and one that seems sympathetic to Labour, I can see them losing an awful lot of seats to the Tories. They could even end up going back to less than 20. With regard to Labour, I guess they would also lose many seats to the SNP again who may suddenly find that they win in 2026. The Lib Dems are way too opportunistic for that. They'll turn on Labour. They aren't stupid - they know that Labour are going to be fundamentally against the interests of the monied home county vote which is basically where they operate. Stuff like private school VAT they simply have to be against. Nevertheless Labour being Labour will still damage the Lib Dem's, to a lesser degree, as if you are very pissed off with Labour you don't vote for the party that would prop them up in a hung parliament. In Tory / lib marginals a vote for lib really could be a vote for Labour (and likewise in Lib / Lab marginals) - this has well and truly sunk in and is why there's been no real liberal recovery in vote. They'll run on anti Labour, anti Brexit. |
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Post by No Offence Alan on Oct 10, 2024 16:44:55 GMT
This is all just a bit of fun really with it being so long until the next election, but it would be interesting to see how the Lib Dems deal with Labour being unpopular. If they carry on being an anti-Conservative party and one that seems sympathetic to Labour, I can see them losing an awful lot of seats to the Tories. They could even end up going back to less than 20. With regard to Labour, I guess they would also lose many seats to the SNP again who may suddenly find that they win in 2026. The Lib Dems are way too opportunistic for that. They'll turn on Labour. They aren't stupid - they know that Labour are going to be fundamentally against the interests of the monied home county vote which is basically where they operate. Stuff like private school VAT they simply have to be against. Nevertheless Labour being Labour will still damage the Lib Dem's, to a lesser degree, as if you are very pissed off with Labour you don't vote for the party that would prop them up in a hung parliament. In Tory / lib marginals a vote for lib really could be a vote for Labour (and likewise in Lib / Lab marginals) - this has well and truly sunk in and is why there's been no real liberal recovery in vote. They'll run on anti Labour, anti Brexit. No, we'll run on NHS waiting lists, sewage in the rivers and a lack of dentists, like this year. Unless Labour actually solve these issues. |
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Post by aargauer on Oct 10, 2024 17:29:21 GMT
The Lib Dems are way too opportunistic for that. They'll turn on Labour. They aren't stupid - they know that Labour are going to be fundamentally against the interests of the monied home county vote which is basically where they operate. Stuff like private school VAT they simply have to be against. Nevertheless Labour being Labour will still damage the Lib Dem's, to a lesser degree, as if you are very pissed off with Labour you don't vote for the party that would prop them up in a hung parliament. In Tory / lib marginals a vote for lib really could be a vote for Labour (and likewise in Lib / Lab marginals) - this has well and truly sunk in and is why there's been no real liberal recovery in vote. They'll run on anti Labour, anti Brexit. No, we'll run on NHS waiting lists, sewage in the rivers and a lack of dentists, like this year. Unless Labour actually solve these issues. Without wanting to come across as rude, I don't think anyone cares about Lib Dem policies in these or any other areas because they are not likely to become reality, they want to know if they vote for you whether you are going to support Labour or Tory in a hung parliament or whether you are distancing yourself from either or both. You do occasionally break through. You did with PR but normal people don't care about the issue (unfortunately in my view). You did with Brexit - and that one actually mattered, and to some extent still does. |
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Post by bigfatron on Oct 10, 2024 18:32:08 GMT
No, we'll run on NHS waiting lists, sewage in the rivers and a lack of dentists, like this year. Unless Labour actually solve these issues. Without wanting to come across as rude, I don't think anyone cares about Lib Dem policies in these or any other areas because they are not likely to become reality, they want to know if they vote for you whether you are going to support Labour or Tory in a hung parliament or whether you are distancing yourself from either or both. You do occasionally break through. You did with PR but normal people don't care about the issue (unfortunately in my view). You did with Brexit - and that one actually mattered, and to some extent still does. I think - from your comments - that you would be very surprised what voters tell us, and pollsters, about what policies matter to them… |
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Post by aargauer on Oct 10, 2024 18:38:18 GMT
Without wanting to come across as rude, I don't think anyone cares about Lib Dem policies in these or any other areas because they are not likely to become reality, they want to know if they vote for you whether you are going to support Labour or Tory in a hung parliament or whether you are distancing yourself from either or both. You do occasionally break through. You did with PR but normal people don't care about the issue (unfortunately in my view). You did with Brexit - and that one actually mattered, and to some extent still does. I think - from your comments - that you would be very surprised what voters tell us, and pollsters, about what policies matter to them… Do you think Liberal Democrat policies beyond Brexit have / are breaking through significantly to the public? I can't really remember anything else since Iraq and tuition fees pre 2010. If so, which ones? (And I mean that your policy is high saliency, not just that the issue is high saliency) |
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Post by michaelarden on Oct 10, 2024 20:06:01 GMT
This is all just a bit of fun really with it being so long until the next election, but it would be interesting to see how the Lib Dems deal with Labour being unpopular. If they carry on being an anti-Conservative party and one that seems sympathetic to Labour, I can see them losing an awful lot of seats to the Tories. They could even end up going back to less than 20. With regard to Labour, I guess they would also lose many seats to the SNP again who may suddenly find that they win in 2026. The Lib Dems are way too opportunistic for that. They'll turn on Labour. They aren't stupid - they know that Labour are going to be fundamentally against the interests of the monied home county vote which is basically where they operate. Stuff like private school VAT they simply have to be against. 64 Lib Dem MPs voted with the Tories on VAT on private school fees - none voted against. votes.parliament.uk/Votes/Commons/Division/1842 |
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Post by aargauer on Oct 10, 2024 20:35:21 GMT
The Lib Dems are way too opportunistic for that. They'll turn on Labour. They aren't stupid - they know that Labour are going to be fundamentally against the interests of the monied home county vote which is basically where they operate. Stuff like private school VAT they simply have to be against. 64 Lib Dem MPs voted with the Tories on VAT on private school fees - none voted against. votes.parliament.uk/Votes/Commons/Division/1842Exactly. The SEND sector is going to make this another winter fuel situation. Totally self inflicted wound that's going to raise negative sums. |
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The Bishop
Labour
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 11, 2024 11:25:04 GMT
Though the SEND sector is a small amount of the total fee paying school intake (even if their propaganda gives a somewhat different impression) and it could be dealt with on its own basis. Trying to make this another winter fuel thing is unlikely to wash - that is enabled by the widespread popular perception of pensioners being on the whole much poorer than they actually now are, whilst public schools are largely (and let's face it, hardly wrongly) seen as a very comfortable and privileged section of society.
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Post by andrewp on Oct 13, 2024 8:46:09 GMT
Voting intention. Fieldwork 9-10 Oct
LAB 27% (-2)
CON 27% (-1)
REF UK 21% (+2)
LIB DEM 13% (+2)
GRN 7% (-)
SNP 2% (-)
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Post by No Offence Alan on Oct 13, 2024 9:05:27 GMT
Voting intention. Fieldwork 9-10 Oct LAB 27% (-2) CON 27% (-1) REF UK 21% (+2) LIB DEM 13% (+2) GRN 7% (-) SNP 2% (-) For a bit of fun, Electoral Calculus gives: CON +90 211 LAB -113 299 LIB -2 70 Reform +21 26 Green +0 4 SNP +0 9 PlaidC -1 3 Other +5 10 N.Ire +0 18 |
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carlton43
Reform Party
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Post by carlton43 on Oct 13, 2024 10:33:46 GMT
Voting intention. Fieldwork 9-10 Oct LAB 27% (-2) CON 27% (-1) REF UK 21% (+2) LIB DEM 13% (+2) GRN 7% (-) SNP 2% (-) Only 6-points to a potential crossover! Hold onto your hats chaps. |
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