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Post by Adam in Stroud on Mar 24, 2023 23:36:02 GMT
In a crowded field this has got to be the most pointless Forum spat of recent times. Poll! |
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Post by timrollpickering on Mar 24, 2023 23:43:35 GMT
In the actual election in Manchester Gorton you got 5.7%. The idea that's a solid base for winning the seat is ludicrous. I really don't know what you people are smoking. Well they've got to do something with all those leftover bar charts... |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 25, 2023 0:09:26 GMT
In a crowded field this has got to be the most pointless Forum spat of recent times. Though it possibly does explain why the LibDems are in favour of drug legalisation |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 25, 2023 0:17:08 GMT
As to the actual question: the "council estate LD" vote evaporated after 2015 and thanks to brexit wasn't, and isn't, coming back. The LDs' voter base can now best be described as "Tories who don't really like the Tory Party". The first issue is whether some of the patterns since 2017 were underway anyway and simply unmasked by the 2017 election, whether they are a result of the 2017 election, or whether they were happening but were strengthened by the 2017 election. The second is whether brexit had happened or otherwise been dealt with by the time of the 2020 election.
I suspect the answer to the first question is the third option, and that brexit had still not been sorted - the Tories' majority in 2015 was small enough for remain Tories to carry on causing problems.
With that in mind, I suspect the main changes are that the LDs hold up better against Labour than they did in 17, keeping hold of Leeds NW and Hallam, keeping Cambridge marginal, and retaining second place in places like Southport, Colchester and Truro & Falmouth. What would have happened in Scotland is probably anybody's guess
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Post by finsobruce on Mar 25, 2023 8:09:11 GMT
In a crowded field this has got to be the most pointless Forum spat of recent times. Poll! Don't drag our Poll into this , she's a nice girl. |
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Post by aargauer on Mar 25, 2023 9:42:57 GMT
As to the actual question: the "council estate LD" vote evaporated after 2015 and thanks to brexit wasn't, and isn't, coming back. The LDs' voter base can now best be described as "Tories who don't really like the Tory Party". The first issue is whether some of the patterns since 2017 were underway anyway and simply unmasked by the 2017 election, whether they are a result of the 2017 election, or whether they were happening but were strengthened by the 2017 election. The second is whether brexit had happened or otherwise been dealt with by the time of the 2020 election. I suspect the answer to the first question is the third option, and that brexit had still not been sorted - the Tories' majority in 2015 was small enough for remain Tories to carry on causing problems. With that in mind, I suspect the main changes are that the LDs hold up better against Labour than they did in 17, keeping hold of Leeds NW and Hallam, keeping Cambridge marginal, and retaining second place in places like Southport, Colchester and Truro & Falmouth. What would have happened in Scotland is probably anybody's guess The lib dem seats in Sunderland are in the roughest bits of that city. Ultimately, they are essentially political opportunists and, being kind, are not terribly doctrinal, and will find holes / weaknesses in both main parties to exploit locally and at by-elections all over the shop. |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 25, 2023 9:55:46 GMT
As to the actual question: the "council estate LD" vote evaporated after 2015 and thanks to brexit wasn't, and isn't, coming back. The LDs' voter base can now best be described as "Tories who don't really like the Tory Party". The first issue is whether some of the patterns since 2017 were underway anyway and simply unmasked by the 2017 election, whether they are a result of the 2017 election, or whether they were happening but were strengthened by the 2017 election. The second is whether brexit had happened or otherwise been dealt with by the time of the 2020 election. I suspect the answer to the first question is the third option, and that brexit had still not been sorted - the Tories' majority in 2015 was small enough for remain Tories to carry on causing problems. With that in mind, I suspect the main changes are that the LDs hold up better against Labour than they did in 17, keeping hold of Leeds NW and Hallam, keeping Cambridge marginal, and retaining second place in places like Southport, Colchester and Truro & Falmouth. What would have happened in Scotland is probably anybody's guess The lib dem seats in Sunderland are in the roughest bits of that city. I think the post was referring to general elections, where in 2019 there was still zero sign of a serious LibDem recovery in those sorts of seats. And if the next GE is a good one for Labour, hard to see that changing much then either. |
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Post by aargauer on Mar 25, 2023 9:58:27 GMT
The lib dem seats in Sunderland are in the roughest bits of that city. I think the post was referring to general elections, where in 2019 there was still zero sign of a serious LibDem recovery in those sorts of seats. And if the next GE is a good one for Labour, hard to see that changing much then either. Yes - the lib / lab marginal is dead. It doesn't look like reviving any time soon, as the lib dem's are now pretty toxic to a significant % of tories, so there's less chance to squeeze that vote. See Sheffield Hallam - where the tories were actually less than 10 points from winning in 2019 (!). Its the last true lib / lab seat in England, and the lib dems just aren't squeezing well enough. |
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Post by andrewp on Mar 25, 2023 10:09:24 GMT
As to the actual question: the "council estate LD" vote evaporated after 2015 and thanks to brexit wasn't, and isn't, coming back. The LDs' voter base can now best be described as "Tories who don't really like the Tory Party". The first issue is whether some of the patterns since 2017 were underway anyway and simply unmasked by the 2017 election, whether they are a result of the 2017 election, or whether they were happening but were strengthened by the 2017 election. The second is whether brexit had happened or otherwise been dealt with by the time of the 2020 election. I suspect the answer to the first question is the third option, and that brexit had still not been sorted - the Tories' majority in 2015 was small enough for remain Tories to carry on causing problems. With that in mind, I suspect the main changes are that the LDs hold up better against Labour than they did in 17, keeping hold of Leeds NW and Hallam, keeping Cambridge marginal, and retaining second place in places like Southport, Colchester and Truro & Falmouth. What would have happened in Scotland is probably anybody's guess It’s different in some parts of the country. The council estates in Taunton, which are quite Brexity, voted LD in the council elections in 2019 and 2022, and almost certainly will again this year. The LD vote there is live and kicking. They will carry those areas in the next General election. In some places in the South and South West, the Lib Dem’s have continued to win those sorts of places due to a lack of Labour organisation, a successful anti Tory message, very active LD councillors and probably if we are honest the LDs standing for community action and nothing very political. There are 2 wards in Taunton that Labour would win comfortably if they were in the midlands or North. |
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Post by No Offence Alan on Mar 25, 2023 10:17:04 GMT
If the Lib Dems were polling so well in Gorton, maybe they should have kept campaigning there during the General Election? We do better in low turnout elections. |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 25, 2023 10:24:55 GMT
Yes - but as I said when this issue was last discussed (just a few months ago!) whilst I don't doubt the LibDems were getting very decent feedback in Gorton, you might have expected there to still be at least a hint of that come the June 2017 general election - rather than one of the biggest Labour majorities in the whole country.
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Post by No Offence Alan on Mar 25, 2023 11:40:01 GMT
Yes - but as I said when this issue was last discussed (just a few months ago!) whilst I don't doubt the LibDems were getting very decent feedback in Gorton, you might have expected there to still be at least a hint of that come the June 2017 general election - rather than one of the biggest Labour majorities in the whole country. There is also the point of the £100k spending limit for a by-election against the much lower spending limit for a general election. |
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Post by Sibboleth on Mar 25, 2023 12:30:04 GMT
I suppose one issue is that while Afzal Khan is an excellent candidate for a General Election (not that this really matters at the moment, but things change), he's the sort of politician that sometimes turns out to be a surprisingly poor candidate in a by-election: how might he have reacted if he pressed buttons and nothing happened and so on. But that's one of those things that tends not to be clear until it's far too late, so this is a particularly hypothetical hypothetical.
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Post by greenhert on Mar 25, 2023 12:37:17 GMT
In the aftermath of Brexit, the Liberal Democrats would likely have made a significant recovery, even if Tim Farron remained leader right up until 2020. However, the fate of the Green Party must also be considered, given that there was a strong correlation between the rise in Green vote shares and the decline of Liberal Democrat vote shares in 2015, notable examples including Bristol West, Liverpool Riverside, Manchester Gorton, Oxford East, and Sheffield Central.
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Crimson King
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Post by Crimson King on Mar 25, 2023 12:40:51 GMT
Don't drag our Poll into this , she's a nice girl. but nothing grows in her garden, only washing, and babies |
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Post by greenchristian on Mar 29, 2023 16:50:35 GMT
So what would a 2020 general election (presumably in lockdown) look like for a Farron led Lib Dems up against May and Corbyn? In these circumstances it's almost certain that the FTPA would have been amended as part of the lockdown legislation and the GE would most likely have taken place alongside two years worth of local elections in May 2021. Which would likely have skewed the local election results in favour of both Labour and the Tories. - Worth noting that the pressure on Farron was already building pre the 2017 election re the “Is gay sex a sin” question - unsure how much momentum that would have got in peace time - would it have been a slow burner until the GE? If Farron had come up with an answer to the question at the time it would have been old news come the GE. And so probably wouldn't have been noticed by the vast majority of voters. In this scenario the sheer length of time between it first coming up and the eventual GE means that he probably comes up with something that makes the media back off early enough for it to be a non-story by the GE. Either that or he resigns as leader over the issue before the GE rather than just after it. |
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Post by nyx on Mar 30, 2023 13:13:18 GMT
So if there were no 2017 general election... the Tories would probably have maintained their comfortable polling lead for the next few years, and it would not at all surprise me if May were to instead call an election in around April 2019, to try to break the parliamentary deadlock on brexit votes and exploit Labour having bean weakened by the recent creation of Change UK. General election may be held on 2 May to coincide with the local elections.
In which case everything would be rather chaotic as I expect the Lib Dems and Brexit Party would be getting quite a bit of attention, I’m not sure what would happen.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 30, 2023 13:30:24 GMT
So if there were no 2017 general election... the Tories would probably have maintained their comfortable polling lead for the next few years, and it would not at all surprise me if May were to instead call an election in around April 2019, to try to break the parliamentary deadlock on brexit votes and exploit Labour having bean weakened by the recent creation of Change UK. General election may be held on 2 May to coincide with the local elections. In which case everything would be rather chaotic as I expect the Lib Dems and Brexit Party would be getting quite a bit of attention, I’m not sure what would happen. I suspect Brexit/UKIP/whoever would’ve made serious inroads into the Tory vote, preventing a majority and probably winning seats. Boris, his message and his hardline approach to the Remain rebels were crucial to winning the majority in 2019. The Lib Dems would almost certainly have won more seats, but goodness knows what would’ve happened when COVID came along, when a divided Parliament was the last thing we’d have wanted. |
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nyx
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Post by nyx on Mar 31, 2023 23:26:49 GMT
So if there were no 2017 general election... the Tories would probably have maintained their comfortable polling lead for the next few years, and it would not at all surprise me if May were to instead call an election in around April 2019, to try to break the parliamentary deadlock on brexit votes and exploit Labour having bean weakened by the recent creation of Change UK. General election may be held on 2 May to coincide with the local elections. In which case everything would be rather chaotic as I expect the Lib Dems and Brexit Party would be getting quite a bit of attention, I’m not sure what would happen. I suspect Brexit/UKIP/whoever would’ve made serious inroads into the Tory vote, preventing a majority and probably winning seats. Boris, his message and his hardline approach to the Remain rebels were crucial to winning the majority in 2019. The Lib Dems would almost certainly have won more seats, but goodness knows what would’ve happened when COVID came along, when a divided Parliament was the last thing we’d have wanted. In that scenario, depending on the exact distribution of seats by party and who's leading each party, I wouldn't rule out the possibility of a national unity government a la WW2 after covid comes along. |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 2, 2023 9:35:55 GMT
So if there were no 2017 general election... the Tories would probably have maintained their comfortable polling lead for the next few years, and it would not at all surprise me if May were to instead call an election in around April 2019, to try to break the parliamentary deadlock on brexit votes and exploit Labour having bean weakened by the recent creation of Change UK. General election may be held on 2 May to coincide with the local elections. Dunno if you can still assume stuff like Change UK happens in that scenario - not least because Corbyn would quite possibly have departed the leadership by then (whether by choice or otherwise) without the "surprise" 2017 result to bolster him. |
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