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Post by michaelarden on Mar 24, 2023 17:10:56 GMT
What if the cautious side of Theresa May won and she decided to go all the way to 2020 under the FTPA?
I think this may have been done generically before, but I'm thinking in terms of its effects on the Lib Dems.
Their current leader was out of Parliament, as were the previous two. They had just 8 seats and were led by Christian firebrand Tim Farron. Layla Moran and Daisy Cooper were mere PPCs and 12.5% of their Parliamentary party was the discredited (in the eyes of the centre left voters) Nick Clegg.
In SW London, for example, (now a Lib Dem stronghold) the Conservatives won control of both Richmond and Kingston councils in 2014 with comfortable majorities and went on to win the Parliamentary seats in 2015. In next door Merton the Lib Dems were reduced to a single councillor.
The 2017 election completely changed the Lib Dem dynamic and allowed them to go into the 2018 elections with all three MPs across the two boroughs (for this alternative timeline I assume the Dec 2016 Richmond Park by-election still takes place). Having that additional resource would have ramped up their campaigning capacity considerably and helped them to win landslides in 2018.
Elsewhere half their MPs were in rather Eurosceptic seats - Southport, Eastbourne, North Norfolk, Carshalton.
Winning the 12 seats they won in 2017 (or indeed the 11 they won in 2019) in a 2020 election would have been difficult - Vince Cable, John Pugh and Norman Lamb would certainly not have stood and I can't see former cabinet minister Ed Davey waiting 5 years to win his seat back (probably the same for Jo Swinson). And five years as the country's fourth/fifth party in Parliament would surely have hollowed out their fundraising ability from pro-Europe sources and it would be difficult to see their local government base coming back as strongly as it did as well.
So what would a 2020 general election (presumably in lockdown) look like for a Farron led Lib Dems up against May and Corbyn?
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Mar 24, 2023 17:46:17 GMT
A few observations:
- The Lib Dems would have won Manchester Gorton in the by-election taking them to 10 MPs. Brecon and Randnor in 2019 would have been seat 11. (This would have meant two Labour defeats for Corbyn in six months - but that’s for another thread).
- The lack of Lib Dem MPs in South West London wouldn’t have been a problem during the 2018 election (Sarah Onley would still have been an MP until 2020 don’t forget)
- Clegg was rebuilding his public reputation following Brexit and certainly got his mojo back between the referendum and the 2017 election. He would have been a powerful voice in Parliament in the same way many of the Tory rebels were.
- A side question to ask is would the Change UK split still have occurred and would the MPs who ultimately joined the Lib Dems in 2019 still have joined? If so the LD’s position in the eventual GE could have been strong even without those elected in 2017.
- Worth noting that the pressure on Farron was already building pre the 2017 election re the “Is gay sex a sin” question - unsure how much momentum that would have got in peace time - would it have been a slow burner until the GE?
- Also another side question is if May (or any hypothetical replacement) went all the way until 2020, when would the GE have happened? Not May 2020 that’s for sure.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Mar 24, 2023 18:25:46 GMT
A few observations: - The Lib Dems would have won Manchester Gorton in the by-election Yeah right. |
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,438 
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Post by iain on Mar 24, 2023 18:26:38 GMT
Eastbourne was lost in 2015 and regained in 2017.
The MPs were Farron (Westmorland), Pugh (Southport), Mulholland (Leeds NW), Clegg (Hallam), Lamb (N Norfolk), Brake (Carshalton), Carmichael (O&S), Williams (Ceredigion).
In 2017 we gained Cable (Twickenham), Davey (Kingston), Hobhouse (Bath), Stone (Caithness), Jardine (Edinburgh W), Swinson (E Dunbartonshire), Moran (OxWAb) and Lloyd (Eastbourne) while losing Pugh, Mulholland, Clegg and Williams.
I think you are correct that the post-2017 Parliamentary Party was much better - swap Clegg and Hobhouse and there would be zero doubt.
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Mar 24, 2023 18:26:55 GMT
A few observations: - The Lib Dems would have won Manchester Gorton in the by-election Yeah right. I stand by that. Sorry if you disagree. |
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,438
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Post by iain on Mar 24, 2023 18:27:29 GMT
A few observations: - The Lib Dems would have won Manchester Gorton in the by-election Yeah right. This was certainly expected - the data was apparently better than in Richmond Park. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Mar 24, 2023 18:33:53 GMT
In the actual election in Manchester Gorton you got 5.7%. The idea that's a solid base for winning the seat is ludicrous. I really don't know what you people are smoking.
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Mar 24, 2023 18:41:49 GMT
In the actual election in Manchester Gorton you got 5.7%. The idea that's a solid base for winning the seat is ludicrous. I really don't know what you people are smoking. As you well know David the General Election over took events and as you also know GE results are not in isolation indicative of by-election results. In the Witney by-election barley eight months earlier the Lib Dems went from 6.8% to 30% and that was when the Conservatives were popular and your lot under Comrade Corbyn (or had you forgotten about him) were most definitely not. In the North Shropshire by-election the Lib Dems went from 10% to 47% and Manchester Gorton was a seat with relative LD history. |
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Post by greatkingrat on Mar 24, 2023 18:45:20 GMT
Manchester Gorton seems the sort of seat where Corbyn would be fairly popular, regardless of his nationwide polling. Plus the presence of George Galloway would have made it harder to unite the anti-Labour vote.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Mar 24, 2023 18:51:41 GMT
In the actual election in Manchester Gorton you got 5.7%. The idea that's a solid base for winning the seat is ludicrous. I really don't know what you people are smoking. As you well know David the General Election over took events and as you also know GE results are not in isolation indicative of by-election results. In the Witney by-election barley eight months earlier the Lib Dems went from 6.8% to 30% and that was when the Conservatives were popular and your lot under Comrade Corbyn (or had you forgotten about him) were most definitely not. In the North Shropshire by-election the Lib Dems went from 10% to 47% and Manchester Gorton was a seat with relative LD history. They were all Tory seats. The Lib Dem vote change in byelections in Labour-held seats was 0.0, +1.6, 0.0, –1.4, +3.8 and +5.7. One of those had Lib Dem history as well. The highest Lib Dem vote in any ward in Gorton constituency was 7.5% in 2016. In 2018 the Lib Dems put in a massive effort in Gorton and Abbey Hey ward and ended up with 23%. That's just one ward out of six, and the Lib Dems were under 10% in all the others. You were absolutely never going to win the Gorton byelection you deluded twits. |
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Post by owainsutton on Mar 24, 2023 18:53:46 GMT
I stand by that. Sorry if you disagree. I agree. They were hitting it really hard, and (contrary to the above) there was no special love for Corbyn on the ground, outside of the Labour bubble. Galloway had no traction, his campaign was embarrassing by any standards. |
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Post by michaelarden on Mar 24, 2023 19:28:16 GMT
Eastbourne was lost in 2015 and regained in 2017. The MPs were Farron (Westmorland), Pugh (Southport), Mulholland (Leeds NW), Clegg (Hallam), Lamb (N Norfolk), Brake (Carshalton), Carmichael (O&S), Williams (Ceredigion). In 2017 we gained Cable (Twickenham), Davey (Kingston), Hobhouse (Bath), Stone (Caithness), Jardine (Edinburgh W), Swinson (E Dunbartonshire), Moran (OxWAb) and Lloyd (Eastbourne) while losing Pugh, Mulholland, Clegg and Williams. I think you are correct that the post-2017 Parliamentary Party was much better - swap Clegg and Hobhouse and there would be zero doubt. Thanks - how could I forget Williams in Ceredigion  I hadn't considered the additional quality of the 2017 intake - but had the parliament stretched to 2020 at least three (Cable, Davey, Swinson) I don't think would have stood and gaining those seats in the circumstances would have been more difficult. |
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J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 14,781
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Post by J.G.Harston on Mar 24, 2023 19:32:06 GMT
What if the cautious side of Theresa May won and she decided to go all the way to 2020 under the FTPA? I think this may have been done generically before, but I'm thinking in terms of its effects on the Lib Dems. (....) So what would a 2020 general election (presumably in lockdown) look like for a Farron led Lib Dems up against May and Corbyn? Would there still have been the 2019 Euro election, where the LibDems whipped themselves up into beleiving they were unassailable. My initial feeling is that without the 2017 general election there might not have been sufficient infighting in Parliament to push Brexit Day past Election Day. After the 2016 result I'd argued the sensible route was to leave on 31 March 2019 excplicitly to be a tidy process to leave at the end of the EP session, bowing out without going into another election. |
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Mar 24, 2023 21:00:18 GMT
The highest Lib Dem vote in any ward in Gorton constituency was 7.5% in 2016. In 2018 the Lib Dems put in a massive effort in Gorton and Abbey Hey ward and ended up with 23%. That's just one ward out of six, and the Lib Dems were under 10% in all the others. You were absolutely never going to win the Gorton byelection you deluded twits. 33.2% in 2005 and 32.6 in 2010. I’m sorry if you disagree with my assessment, and please keep calling me/us “twits” I/other LDs have been called a lot worse. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Mar 24, 2023 21:48:21 GMT
The highest Lib Dem vote in any ward in Gorton constituency was 7.5% in 2016. In 2018 the Lib Dems put in a massive effort in Gorton and Abbey Hey ward and ended up with 23%. That's just one ward out of six, and the Lib Dems were under 10% in all the others. You were absolutely never going to win the Gorton byelection you deluded twits. 33.2% in 2005 and 32.6 in 2010. Did anything happen between 2005/2010 and 2015 which might have completely fundamentally changed the ability of the Lib Dems to win votes in Labour-held seats? Anything at all? If you think that a Lib Dem vote in the low 30s in a Labour-held seat in 2010 is a solid base for winning a seat after 2015, perhaps you can tell me how many such seats the Liberal Democrats have actually won in any election since 2015. Or maybe I'll tell you: not a single one. And the proof of that is that two of the Change UK defectors who ended up in the Lib Dems were in those seats - and both of them were moved by the Lib Dems to stand in Conservative held seats at the 2019 election. Your own party doesn't believe you. |
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Post by greatkingrat on Mar 24, 2023 22:26:22 GMT
If the Lib Dems were polling so well in Gorton, maybe they should have kept campaigning there during the General Election?
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Mar 24, 2023 22:40:38 GMT
33.2% in 2005 and 32.6 in 2010. Did anything happen between 2005/2010 and 2015 which might have completely fundamentally changed the ability of the Lib Dems to win votes in Labour-held seats? Anything at all? And remind me what happened for the Labour Party between 2015 and the hypothetical 2017 Gorton by-election? Your own party doesn't believe you Yofft, worst insult ever! |
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Post by grahammurray on Mar 24, 2023 22:43:36 GMT
33.2% in 2005 and 32.6 in 2010. Did anything happen between 2005/2010 and 2015 which might have completely fundamentally changed the ability of the Lib Dems to win votes in Labour-held seats? Anything at all? If you think that a Lib Dem vote in the low 30s in a Labour-held seat in 2010 is a solid base for winning a seat after 2015, perhaps you can tell me how many such seats the Liberal Democrats have actually won in any election since 2015. Or maybe I'll tell you: not a single one. And the proof of that is that two of the Change UK defectors who ended up in the Lib Dems were in those seats - and both of them were moved by the Lib Dems to stand in Conservative held seats at the 2019 election. Your own party doesn't believe you. Looking at Lib Dem predictions for by-election results in recent times and comapring them to the wild exaggerations from Labour, it's a one horse race. |
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Post by finsobruce on Mar 24, 2023 22:45:14 GMT
In a crowded field this has got to be the most pointless Forum spat of recent times.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Mar 24, 2023 23:02:28 GMT
Did anything happen between 2005/2010 and 2015 which might have completely fundamentally changed the ability of the Lib Dems to win votes in Labour-held seats? Anything at all? And remind me what happened for the Labour Party between 2015 and the hypothetical 2017 Gorton by-election? As Nye Bevan once said, why read the crystal when you can read the book? There was a byelection in a near neighbouring seat to Gorton, under the Corbyn leadership; the Labour vote went up, and the Lib Dem vote didn't. There was a byelection in a similar northern city seat with some Lib Dem tradition in May 2016; the Labour vote went up, and the Lib Dem vote didn't. And you don't address the point. If the Lib Dems had a chance to revive their previous vote in Labour-held seats, and then build on it to win them, and then they got the sitting Labour MP to defect (a massive boost to any local campaign), why on earth would they not do everything to encourage the defector to stand for re-election in their seat? Instead the MP was moved to stand in an unconnected seat, with no Lib Dem tradition, that was held by the Conservatives. To hold to your assertion you would literally have to argue that your party was sabotaging its own campaigns. Your position is ludicrous and you know it. |
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