Prediction Competition - March 2023

[johnloony]

Edinburgh: LD 46 SNP 26 Con 10 Lab 9 Grn 6 Libn 1 SFP 1 IndM 1 IndG 0
Haringey: Lab 56 Grn 24 LD 8 Con 5 Ind 4 CPA 3
Hounslow: Lab 59 Grn 17 Con 14 LD 7 Ind 3

[Richard Cromwell]

Heston West, Hounslow

LAB	76%
GRN	12%
CON	11%
LDEM	1%
IND	0%

Tottenham Hale, Haringey

LAB	76%
GRN	14%
CON	4%
LDEM	3%
CPA	2%
IND	1%

Corstorphine/Murrayfield, Edinburgh

LDEM	31%	Win On Transfers
SNP	16%
CON	15%
LAB	14%
GRN	9%
Elaine Miller	6%
Scottish Family	4%
Scottish Libertarian	3%
Pete Gregson	2%

[kevinf]

Edinburgh
LibDem 35 (winner), SNP 21, Con 14, Lab 12, Green 10, Ind (Miller) 3, Ind (Gregson) 2.5, Libertarian 1.5, sFP 1
Haringey
Lab 55, Green 25, LibDem 10, Con 8, Ind 2
Hounslow
Lab 60, LibDem 16, Green 12, Con 10, Ind 2

[batman]

EDINBURGH, Corstorphine/Murrayfield : LD 37 SNP 22 C 15 Lab 10 Green 7 Ind Miller 4 Ind Gregson 3 Libertarian 1 SFP 1. LD win on transfers

HARINGEY, Tottenham Hale : Lab 53 Green 23 LD 12 C 9 CPA 2 Ind 1

HOUNSLOW, Heston W. : Lab 55 Green 19 C 17 LD 7 Ind 2

Kevinf you've forgotten the CPA candidate in Haringey

[corradino]

EDINBURGH: LibDem 39, SNP 16, Con 12, Lab 11, Green 7, Ind (Miller) 11, Ind (Gregson) 3, SFP 0.7, libertarian 0.3

HARINGEY: Lab 66, Green 18, LibDem 6, Con 5, CPA 3, Ind 2

HOUNSLOW: Lab 61, Green 20, Con 13, LibDem 4, Ind 2

[No Offence Alan]

Edinburgh: LD 42 SNP 23 Con 12 Lab 11 Grn 5 SFP 3 Ind Gregson 2 Ind Miller 1 Libertarian 1
Haringey: Lab 70 Grn 16 LD 6 Con 5 CPA 2 Ind 1
Hounslow: Lab 53 LD 23 Grn 12 Con 11 Ind 1

[Tony Otim]

Edinburgh: LD 49.8; SNP 15.6; Con 14.9; Lab 9.1; Grn 8.1; Gregson 1.2; Miller 0.8; SFP 0.4; Libert 0.1
Haringey: Lab 58.1; Grn 23.1; LD 9.4; Con 5.7; CPA 2.3; Negusse Ghebreawariat 1.4
Hounslow: Lab 59.9; LD 17.8; Con 11.7; Grn 7.4; Kuleba 3.2

[andrewp]

Edinburgh. LD 44, SNP 18, Con 12, Lab 10, Gregson 8, Green 5, Miller 2, SFP 0.5, Lib 0.5. LD win.
Haringey. Lab 63, Green 20, LD 7, Con 6, Ind 2, CPA 2
Hounslow. Lab 65, Con 15, LD 10, Green 6, Ind 4

[manchesterman]

Edinburgh: LD 43, SNP 20, Con 12, Lab 12, Green 6, Gregson 3, SFP 2, Miller 1, Libertarian 1

Haringey: Lab 67, Green 17, LD 7, Con 7, CPA 1, Ind 1

Hounslow: Lab 59, LD 17 Con 15, Green 7, Ind 2

[Robert Waller]

Edinburgh: LD 52, SNP 16, Con 13, Lab 8, Green 6, Gregson 2, SFP 0.5, Miller 2, Libertarian 0.5

Haringey: Lab 64, Green 20, LD 8, Con 5, CPA 1.5, Ind 1.5

Hounslow: Lab 64, LD 11, Con 15, Green 8, Ind 2

[peterl]

Edinburgh. LD 49, SNP 22, Con 9, Lab 8, Gregson 5, Green 4, Miller 2, SFP 0.5, Lib 0.5. LD win.
Haringey. Lab 59, Green 24, LD 7, Con 6, Ind 2, CPA 2
Hounslow. Lab 62, Green 14, Con 10, LD 9, Ind 5

[yellowperil]

Edinburgh, Corstorphine/Murrayfield: Con 12,Lab 10,LD 46,SGP 6,SNP 21,Lbt 0.5,SFP 0.5,Ind M 1.5, Ind G 2.5. LD to win on transfers.

Haringey, Tottenham Hale: Con 6,Lab 63,LD 6,GP 21, CPA 2, Ind 2.

Hounslow, Heston W: Con 14, Lab 66, LD 10, GP 8, Ind 2.

[rightleaning]

Edinburgh, Corstorphine/Murrayfield: LD 44, SNP 26, Con 11, Lab 9, SGP 6, Lbt 1, SFP 1, Ind M 1, Ind G 1, LD to win on transfers.
Haringey, Tottenham Hale: Lab 61, GP 26, LD 6, Con 5, CPA 1, Ind 1.
Hounslow, Heston W: Lab 64, Con 14, GP 12, LD 8, Ind 2.

[iainbhx]

Edinburgh SUA, Corstorphine/Murrayfield: LDm 45, SNP 16, Lab 13, Con 12, Grn 8, Ind G 3 Ind M 1,5 Fam 1 Lbt 0.5 (LDm win on transfers)
Haringey LBC, Tottenham Hale: Lab 59 Grn 23 LDm 9 Con 6, CPA 2, Ind 1
Hounslow LBC, Heston West: Lab 57 LDm 20 Con 15 Grn 7 Ind 1

[robbienicoll]

14 entries this week with manchesterman returning, all on time and correct.

Corstorphine and Murrayfield, Edinburgh: 100% Liberal Democrat ahead on first preferences and gain from SNP after transfers, first preference majority ranging from 14% (kevinf) to 36% (Robert Waller).

Tottenham Hale, Haringey: 100% Labour hold, majorities ranging from 30% (batman and kevinf) to 62% (Richard Cromwell).

Heston West, Hounslow: 100% Labour hold, majorities ranging from 30% (No Offence Alan) to 64% (Richard Cromwell).

Results available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hL4SDaQ1VCjVPU6yFEs3FUyUDmt1QUaEPxYeLILRGpo/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all!

[corradino]

I blame my dismal performance this week on Elaine Miller. I anticipated a much more dramatic show from her but, this time round she didn't show much at all.

[yellowperil]

...Not a particularly good week for me either and I blame the Lib Dems. They did better than I expected and I'm always inclined to be sceptical about reports of things going well.Better of course if they confound my scepticism and my predictions go down the tubes.


Congratulations to Robert on a return to sparkling form for the month.

And of course to Iain for winning the week and showing it is actually possible for a LD to do well predicting when the LDs are doing  well on the ground. 

[Tony Otim]

Mar 10, 2023 0:52:46 GMT corradino said:

I blame my dismal performance this week on Elaine Miller. I anticipated a much more dramatic show from her but, this time round she didn't show much at all.

It's really not an issue that the vast majority of voters actually care about all that much...

[batman]

S.CAMBRIDGESHIRE, Cottenham : LD 57 C 16 Green 14 Lab 9 Ind 4

STIRLING, Dunblane/Bridge of Allan : C 27 SNP 24 Green 21 Lab 15 LD 10 SFP 3. Conservative win on transfers

[kevinf]

South Cambs
LibDem 65, Con 13, Green 11, Lab 7, Ind 4
Stirling
Con 33, SNP 29, Lab 16, Green 14, LibDem 7, SFP 1, Con win