Prediction Competition - March 2023

[robbienicoll]

There appears to be 15 by-elections during March.

- 6 by-elections on 2 March
- 3 on 9 March
- 2 on 16 March
- 1 on 23 March
- 3 on 30 March

4 by-elections are for District Councils, 3 of which were last contested in 2022 and 1 in 2019
1 is for a unitary authority which was last contested in 2021
3 are for County Councils all last contested in 2021
1 is for a Metropolitan council last contested in 2022
3 are for a London borough council last contested in 2022
1 is for a Welsh authority last contested in 2022
2 are for Scottish councils last contested in 2022

Conservatives defend 5 seats, 1 following the death of the previous councillor and 4 a resignation (2 of whom are sitting as Independents)
Labour defend 6 seats, 5 following the death of the previous councillor and 1 a resignation
Liberal Democrats defend 1 seat following the death of the previous councillor
SNP defend 2 seats, 1 following the death of the previous councillor and 1 a resignation
Plaid Cymru defend 1 seat following the death of the previous councillor

With all but three SOPNs now published, there are 12 Conservative and Labour candidates apiece, 10 Liberal Democrats, 9 Greens, 2 SNP, 2 TUSC, 2 Scottish Greens, 2 Scottish Family Party, 2 Reform UK and 1 apiece for the Christian People’s Alliance, Scottish Libertarian Party and the Breakthrough Party together with 10 Independents contesting 8 elections
- a total of 66 candidates for 12 seats.

Predictions on this thread at 9.00am on the day of the election.

[johnloony]

Kent: Green 44 Con 33 Lab 10 IndW 9 IndM 4
Newcastle-Upon-Tyne: Lab 65 Grn 15 Con 14 LD 6
Oxford: Lab 49 Ind 21 Con 12 Grn 11 LD 4 TUSC 3
Oxfordshire: Lab 55 Grn 14 Con 13 Ind 10 LD 6 TUSC 2
Staffordshire: Con 47 Lab 41 LD 7 RefUK 5
Tamworth: Lab 44 Con 36 RefUK 8 Grn 7 Ind 5

[kevinf]

Kent
Con 42, Green 38, Lab 10, Ind (Myers) 6, Ind (Weath) 4
Newscastle
Lab 79, LD 10, Con 6, Green 5
Oxford
Lab 48, Ind 24, Con 14, Green 10, LD 3, Tusc 1
Oxfordshire
Lab 56, Con 18, Ind 11, Green 10, LD 4,Tusc 1
Staffs
Con 54, Lab 35 LD 6, Reform 5
Tamworth
Lab 39, Con 38, Ind 12, Green 6, Reform 5

[Richard Cromwell]

Rose Hill and Littlemore, Oxfordshire

LAB	71%
GRN	10%
IND	8%
CON	7%
LDEM	4%
TUSC	0%

Byker, Newcastle upon Tyne

LAB	77%
CON	9%
GRN	12%
LDEM	2%

Belgrave, Tamworth

CON	32%
LAB	44%
IND	16%
GRN	6%
Reform	2%

Littlemore, Oxford

LAB	54%
IND	33%
CON	7%
GRN	5%
LDEM	1%
TUSC	0%

Hythe West, Kent

GRN	39%
Andy Weatherhead	27%
CON	16%
LAB	13%
Ian Meyers	5%

Watling South, Staffordshire

LAB	45%
CON	42%
Reform	9%
LDEM	4%

[corradino]

Kent, Hythe West

Con 38
Green43
Labour 12
Meyers 4
Weatherhead 3

Newcastle, Byker

Labour 58
Con 12
Green 20
LibDem 10

Oxford, Littlemore

Lab 48
TUSC 6
IND 23
Con 8
LibDem 5
Green 10

Oxfordshire, Rose Hill etc

Lab 52
Con 13
Ind 12
Green 13
LibDem 6
TUSC 4

Staffordshire, Watling South

Con 50
Lab 34
Reform 5
LibDem 11

Tamworth

Lab 42
Con 38
Reform 4
Green 6
Ind 10

[No Offence Alan]

Kent
Con 41, Green 40, Lab 12, Ind (Myers) 5, Ind (Weatherhead) 2
Newcastle
Lab 63, LD 18, Con 11, Green 8
Oxford
Lab 50, Ind 21, Con 11, Green 9, LD 8, Tusc 1
Oxfordshire
Lab 58, Con 17, Green 10, Ind 8, LD 6, Tusc 1
Staffs
Con 51, Lab 43, Reform 4, LD 2
Tamworth
Lab 41, Con 40, Green 8, Ind 7, Reform 4

[Tony Otim]

Kent: Grn 44.0; Con 36.2; Lab 10.1; Meyers 7.2; Weatherhead 2.5
Newcastle: Lab 66.8; LD 14.0; Con 10.2; Grn 9.0
Oxford: Lab 48.0; Evans 20.9; Grn 12.8; Con 11.1; LD 5.1; TUSC 2.1
Oxfordshire: Lab 54.3; Evans 13.5; Con 12.7; Grn 12.5; LD 5.6; TUSC 1.4
Staffordshire: Con 51.7; Lab 33.5; RefUK 9.6; LD 5.2
Tamworth: Lab 37.6; Con 33.0; Taylor 13.4; RefUK 9.6; Grn 6.4

[batman]

KENT, Hythe W : Green 46 C 42 Lab 12 Ind Weatherhead 7 Ind Meyers 3

NEWCASTLE-UPON-TYNE, Byker : Lab 66 Green 16 C 11 LD 7

OXFORD, Littlemore : Lab 46 Ind 29 C 9 Green 7 LD 6 TUSC 3

OXFORDSHIRE, Rose Hill & Littlemore : Lab 48 Ind 18 Green 13 C 12 LD 6 TUSC 3

STAFFORDSHIRE, Watling S. : C 50 Lab 37 RefUK 8 LD 5

TAMWORTH, Belgrave : Lab 42 C 36 RefUK 10 Ind 7 Green 5

[andrewp]

Kent. Hythe West Green 43 Con 30. Lab 13, Weatherhead 9, Meyers 5
Newcastle, Byker. Lab 64, Green 19. Con 9, LD 8
Oxford, Littlemore, Lab 49, Ind 21, Green 13, Con 8, LD 6, TUSC 3
Oxfordshire, RoseHill and Littlemore. Lab 50, Ind 17, Green 15, Con 8, LD 7, TUSC 3
Staffordshire. Watling South. Con 50, Lab 40, RefUK 6 LD 4
Tamworth, Belgrave. Lab 47, Con 37, Ind 8 Green 4 Ref UK 4

[Robert Waller]

Kent, Hythe West. Green 42, Con 37, Lab 11, Weatherhead 6, Meyers 4

Newcastle, Byker. Lab 66, Green 16, Con 8, LD 10

Oxford, Littlemore. Lab 43, Ind 34, Green 7, Con 10, LD 4, TUSC 2

Oxfordshire, Rose Hill and Littlemore. Lab 52, Ind 22, Green 12, Con 7, LD 5, TUSC 2

Staffordshire, Watling South. Con 47, Lab 43, RefUK 5 LD 5

Tamworth, Belgrave. Lab 44, Con 43, Ind 5 Green 5 Ref UK 3

[peterl]

Kent: Green 41 Con 35 IndW 11 Lab 9 IndM 4
Newcastle-Upon-Tyne: Lab 72 Grn 14 Con 9 LD 5
Oxford: Lab 48 Ind 25 Grn 12 Con 8 LD 5 TUSC 2
Oxfordshire: Lab 56 Grn 16 Con 12 Ind 9 LD 5 TUSC 2
Staffordshire: Con 45 Lab 40 LD 10 RefUK 5
Tamworth: Lab 47 Con 34 Grn 9 RefUK 6 Ind 4

[yellowperil]

Kent, Hythe West: Con 36, Lab 10,GP 44, Ind Meyers 2, Ind Weatherhead 8.
Newcastle, Byker: Con 13, Lab 67,LD 8, GP 12.
Oxford, Littlemore: Con 10, Lab 45, LD 5,GP 10,Ind 28, TUSC 2.
Oxfordshire, Rose Hill & Littlemore:Con 14, Lab 50,LD 6, GP 10, Ind 18,TUSC 2.
Staffordshire, Watling South:Con 50, Lab 38, LD 5, RUK 7.
Tamworth, Belgrave:Con 38, Lab 40, GP 7,Ind 8,RUK 7.

[rightleaning]

Kent, Hythe West: Con 41, GP 38, Lab 12, Ind Weatherhead 6, Ind Meyers 3
Newcastle, Byker: Lab 67, LD 14, GP 11, Con 8
Oxford, Littlemore: Lab 48, Ind 27, GP 12, Con 8, LD 4, TUSC 1
Oxfordshire, Rose Hill & Littlemore: Lab 48, Ind 21, Con 14, GP 12, LD 4, TUSC 1.
Staffordshire, Watling South: Con 49, Lab 41, LD 6, RUK 4
Tamworth, Belgrave: Con 42, Lab 40, GP 10, Ind 5, RUK 3

[iainbhx]

Kent CC, Hythe West: Grn 44, Con 30, Lab 13, Ind Weatherhead 7, Ind Meyers 6
Newcastle MBC, Byker: Lab 65, Grn 15, LDm 12, Con 8
Oxford DC, Littlemore: Lab 49, Grn 18, Ind 16, LDm 9, Con 6, TUSC 2
Oxfordshire CC, RoseHill and Littlemore: Lab 51, Ind 15, Grn 14, Con 10, LDm 7, TUSC 3
Staffordshire CC, Watling South: Con 47, Lab 40, REFUK 8, LDm 5
Tamworth DC, Belgrave: Lab 45, Con 38, Ind 8, REFUK 5, Grn 4

[robbienicoll]

13 entries to open the month. All on time, but with batman picking up 10 faults for going over in Kent.

Hythe West, Kent: 10 Green gain from Conservative, with kevinf, No Offence Alan and Right Leaning Conservative hold.

Byker, Newcastle-upon-Tyne: 100% Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 38% (corradino) to 69% (kevinf).

Littlemore, Oxford: 100% Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 9% (Robert Waller) to 31% (iainbhx).

Rose Hill and Littlemore, Oxfordshire: 100% Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 27% (Right Leaning) to 61% (Richard Cromwell).

Watling South, Staffordshire: 12 Conservative hold, majorities ranging from 4% (Robert Waller) to 18.2% (Tony Otim). Richard Cromwell Labour gain with 3% majority.

Belgrave, Tamworth: 12 Labour gain from Conservative, majorities ranging from 1% (kevinf, No Offence Alan and Robert Waller) to 13% (peterl). Right Leaning Conservative hold with majority of 2%.

Results available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Nprw5hJ6KT-1OlfREWEqs77iWIqR_eY0c2UWwA-skgQ/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all!

[batman]

Oh poo, unusual for me to be innumerate.

[Tony Otim]

Well at least we all got the right winner in Newcastle, even if we greatly overestimated the size of the majority...

[kevinf]

Grateful as I am for having been credited with winning Tamworth, I think Tony O edged me out….

[Tony Otim]

Congratulations to Robert for the week!

[andrewp]

Mar 3, 2023 16:11:54 GMT Tony Otim said:

Congratulations to Robert for the week!

6 different prediction winners for the 6 contests too!