Estonian Election 2023

[iain]

This will be held on 5th March. Since the last election there have been 3 separate coalition governments, and all parties in the Riigikogu have been in government at some point during the term: Centre-EKRE-Isamaa, followed by Reform-Centre, followed by Reform-Isamaa-SDE. There is a national threshold of 5%.

The parties:

Reform (last election 28.9%, polling ~30%)
A liberal party, particularly economically. They are big proponents of the current flat income tax and low corporate taxes. Raising the income free tax threshold is the central plank of their campaign this time. They are also in favour of the promotion of the Estonian language. They do best with the young, wealthy, well-educated and urban.

Kesk (last election 23.1%, polling ~18%)
The party, whose name means centre, is generally seen as having an ideology which is difficult to pin down. They are probably centre to centre left economically, but also fairly populist. They're certainly to the left of the Estonian spectrum, but that is not very difficult. Possibly most relevant is that they are the political home of most Russian speakers, leading to strong results in Tallinn and Ida Viru County.

EKRE (last election 17.8%, polling ~22%)
A party of the populist right, they are Estonian nationalist (particularly in terms of language policy), anti-immigration and socially conservative. They want to repeal the Registered Parternship Act (covering gay couples), increase pensions and transition to a system with both more direct democracy and an elected President. They do best in rural areas, particularly in the south of the country.

Isamaa (last election 11.4%, polling ~7%)
Probably best described as Christian Democrats, they are going into the election promising 'pro-family' policies, promoting tax breaks for families with children, more childcare and increased child benefit. One of their headline issues they are promoting this time is mandating use of Estonian in kindergartens and schools.

SDE (last election 9.8%, polling ~7%)
Social democrats, and the only leftists on the Estonian political scene. Their main pledges at these elections seem to be an increase in the minimum wage and increasing teachers' salaries.

Eesti 200 (last election 4.4%, polling ~11%)
There doesn't seem to be much to distinguish Eesti 200 from Reform, though they have a greater emphasis on their social liberalism, for instance being pro-same sex marriage. They are still economically very much on the right, but one of their main focuses in this campaign has been on education.

The other two parties with some vague shot at a respectable result (though polls would have to be very off to see either reach the threshold) are the Greens and Parempoolsed, a fiscally conservative party who split from Isamaa, apparently, and somewhat hilariously, due to the 'left turn' of Estonian politics.

[Deleted]

Feb 17, 2023 16:22:56 GMT iain said:

This will be held on 5th March. Since the last election there have been 3 separate coalition governments, and all parties in the Riigikogu have been in government at some point during the term: Centre-EKRE-Isamaa, followed by Reform-Centre, followed by Reform-Isamaa-SDE. There is a national threshold of 5%.

The parties:

Reform (last election 28.9%, polling ~30%)
A liberal party, particularly economically. They are big proponents of the current flat income tax and low corporate taxes. Raising the income free tax threshold is the central plank of their campaign this time. They are also in favour of the promotion of the Estonian language. They do best with the young, wealthy, well-educated and urban.

Kesk (last election 23.1%, polling ~18%)
The party, whose name means centre, is generally seen as having an ideology which is difficult to pin down. They are probably centre to centre left economically, but also fairly populist. They're certainly to the left of the Estonian spectrum, but that is not very difficult. Possibly most relevant is that they are the political home of most Russian speakers, leading to strong results in Tallinn and Ida Viru County.

EKRE (last election 17.8%, polling ~22%)
A party of the populist right, they are Estonian nationalist (particularly in terms of language policy), anti-immigration and socially conservative. They want to repeal the Registered Parternship Act (covering gay couples), increase pensions and transition to a system with both more direct democracy and an elected President. They do best in rural areas, particularly in the south of the country.

Isamaa (last election 11.4%, polling ~7%)
Probably best described as Christian Democrats, they are going into the election promising 'pro-family' policies, promoting tax breaks for families with children, more childcare and increased child benefit. One of their headline issues they are promoting this time is mandating use of Estonian in kindergartens and schools.

SDE (last election 9.8%, polling ~7%)
Social democrats, and the only leftists on the Estonian political scene. Their main pledges at these elections seem to be an increase in the minimum wage and increasing teachers' salaries.

Eesti 200 (last election 4.4%, polling ~11%)
There doesn't seem to be much to distinguish Eesti 200 from Reform, though they have a greater emphasis on their social liberalism, for instance being pro-same sex marriage. They are still economically very much on the right, but one of their main focuses in this campaign has been on education.

The other two parties with some vague shot at a respectable result (though polls would have to be very off to see either reach the threshold) are the Greens and Parempoolsed, a fiscally conservative party who split from Isamaa, apparently, and somewhat hilariously, due to the 'left turn' of Estonian politics.

Is the war influencing this much? For example, EKRE’s rise in the polls.

[Deleted]

I understand there has been a lot of discomfort amongst Võro speakers who feel that a proposed military institution threaten their language, despite them offering an alternative location that would have minimised the damage. They are a very small group but extremely concentrated so it will be interesting to see if it has an effect

[iain]

Feb 17, 2023 22:17:39 GMT @johnyorks said:

Feb 17, 2023 16:22:56 GMT iain said:

This will be held on 5th March. Since the last election there have been 3 separate coalition governments, and all parties in the Riigikogu have been in government at some point during the term: Centre-EKRE-Isamaa, followed by Reform-Centre, followed by Reform-Isamaa-SDE. There is a national threshold of 5%.

The parties:

Reform (last election 28.9%, polling ~30%)
A liberal party, particularly economically. They are big proponents of the current flat income tax and low corporate taxes. Raising the income free tax threshold is the central plank of their campaign this time. They are also in favour of the promotion of the Estonian language. They do best with the young, wealthy, well-educated and urban.

Kesk (last election 23.1%, polling ~18%)
The party, whose name means centre, is generally seen as having an ideology which is difficult to pin down. They are probably centre to centre left economically, but also fairly populist. They're certainly to the left of the Estonian spectrum, but that is not very difficult. Possibly most relevant is that they are the political home of most Russian speakers, leading to strong results in Tallinn and Ida Viru County.

EKRE (last election 17.8%, polling ~22%)
A party of the populist right, they are Estonian nationalist (particularly in terms of language policy), anti-immigration and socially conservative. They want to repeal the Registered Parternship Act (covering gay couples), increase pensions and transition to a system with both more direct democracy and an elected President. They do best in rural areas, particularly in the south of the country.

Isamaa (last election 11.4%, polling ~7%)
Probably best described as Christian Democrats, they are going into the election promising 'pro-family' policies, promoting tax breaks for families with children, more childcare and increased child benefit. One of their headline issues they are promoting this time is mandating use of Estonian in kindergartens and schools.

SDE (last election 9.8%, polling ~7%)
Social democrats, and the only leftists on the Estonian political scene. Their main pledges at these elections seem to be an increase in the minimum wage and increasing teachers' salaries.

Eesti 200 (last election 4.4%, polling ~11%)
There doesn't seem to be much to distinguish Eesti 200 from Reform, though they have a greater emphasis on their social liberalism, for instance being pro-same sex marriage. They are still economically very much on the right, but one of their main focuses in this campaign has been on education.

The other two parties with some vague shot at a respectable result (though polls would have to be very off to see either reach the threshold) are the Greens and Parempoolsed, a fiscally conservative party who split from Isamaa, apparently, and somewhat hilariously, due to the 'left turn' of Estonian politics.

Is the war influencing this much? For example, EKRE’s rise in the polls.

It has given Reform a big boost, with their very hawkish stance popular in the electorate. Centre, who as I said are the overwhelming choice of ethnic Russians, on the other hand, have fallen in the polls, most likely due to a lack of trust among their ethnic Estonian voter base. EKRE’s rises and falls in the polls don’t seem to have much in common with the timing of the war.

[Georg Ebner]

Feb 17, 2023 16:22:56 GMT iain said:

Kesk (last election 23.1%, polling ~18%)
The party, whose name means centre, is generally seen as having an ideology which is difficult to pin down. They are probably centre to centre left economically, but also fairly populist. They're certainly to the left of the Estonian spectrum, but that is not very difficult. Possibly most relevant is that they are the political home of most Russian speakers, leading to strong results in Tallinn and Ida Viru County.

Positioning Kesk is indeed highly problematic - Savisaar, e.g., had once relationships to german nationalists!
Here is a try from 2019:

[iain]

Record early voting:

Polls close at 6pm UK time tomorrow

[markgoodair]

Turnout of 63.7%

[iain]

www.postimees.ee/7725398/valimised-2023-riigikogu-valimiste-tulemused

Results coming in have EKRE in the lead and Kesk (Centre) third. However, this so far doesn’t include any of the online vote, which is most of the vote, and skews strongly towards Reform. Therefore I think this looks pretty bad for Kesk and pretty decent for E200 (in fourth).

[iain]

The e-vote drops, and it’s all change:

Reform - 31.9%
EKRE - 15.8%
Kesk - 14.5%
E200 - 13.6%
SDE - 9.4%
Isamaa - 8.3%

If that holds, EKRE are actually doing worse than last election. In these numbers, Reform + E200 would have a majority (just) on their own.

[Devil Wincarnate]

What do these results mean for Estonia's future direction?

[iain]

Mar 5, 2023 22:13:32 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

What do these results mean for Estonia's future direction?

Assuming the post-election negotiations go broadly as expected, more liberal (probably) and more pro-Western (definitely).

[Deleted]

Mar 5, 2023 22:29:41 GMT iain said:

Mar 5, 2023 22:13:32 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

What do these results mean for Estonia's future direction?

Assuming the post-election negotiations go broadly as expected, more liberal (probably) and more pro-Western (definitely).

Putin remains a master strategist.

[Adam in Stroud]

[Deleted]

Blimey only 101? That feels small for a national parliament

[WJ]

Mar 6, 2023 1:11:47 GMT @europeanlefty said:

Blimey only 101? That feels small for a national parliament

That's approximately 1 MP for every 8900 voters I think.

[nelson]

Mar 6, 2023 1:11:47 GMT @europeanlefty said:

Blimey only 101? That feels small for a national parliament

It's a small country, and neigbouring Latvia's parliament only has 100 with a bigger population, so it's not even the smallest in the Baltics. Even if you exclude the various island nations and the European micro states it's far from a record, the Bosnian HoR only has 42 members and the parliaments of UAE and Bahrain 40, Bhutan 41 and Surname 47. If you only include countries with more than a million inhabitants Panama's has 71 members and Namibia's 72 (but 26 in the Senate), and Mongolia 76 with a unicameral parliament. El Salvador and Singapore also have unicameral parliaments with less than 90 members. It's a fairly big list and it's not that far below more well known parliaments like the Israeli and New Zealand that both have 120 members. 

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_legislatures_by_number_of_members

[markgoodair]

Mar 6, 2023 1:11:47 GMT @europeanlefty said:

Blimey only 101? That feels small for a national parliament

Estonia's population is only 1.3 million.

[rcronald]

Looks like Reform and E200 have enough seats for a purely liberal government.

[iain]

Mar 6, 2023 9:37:48 GMT rcronald said:

Looks like Reform and E200 have enough seats for a purely liberal government.

I'd imagine both parties would see that as ideal, but with a majority of just 1, they may want another party involved - E200 would probably prefer the SDE, but Reform may want Isamaa. The current Reform-Isamaa-SDE coalition also has a majority.

The new government will have to deal with what looks like increased radicalisation among the Russian population. In the 7th electoral district (covering Russian-majority Ida-Viru County), the Centre Party fell back badly, and two pro-Kremlin men came close to picking up 'personal mandates' (if an individual candidate hits a certain threshold, in this case 4,921 votes, then they can win a seat, ignoring the national 5% threshold) - these were Mihhail Stalnuhhun (4,577 votes), who ran as an Independent after being expelled from Centre last year for calling the government 'Nazis' and 'fascists' for removing monuments to Soviet soldiers; and the extremely unpleasant Aivo Peterson (3,960 votes), running for the United Left Party (EÜVP), who made campaign videos in occupied eastern Ukraine, appeared on propaganda shows in Russia, called for the Estonian government to be overthrown, and claimed atrocities in Bucha were staged by the west.

They only won 2.4%, so nowhere near the 5% threshold, but the EÜVP actually came in 7th nationally, beating both Parempoolsed and the Greens.

[WJ]

I don't know the means by which Estonia selects their speaker, but if the speaker comes from Reform or E200, then that majority of 1 disappears.