Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,922 
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Feb 7, 2023 16:32:05 GMT
In the Channel 4 drama "The Undeclared War" which focuses primarily on the BBC's exit poll being terribly wrong and pointing to a Lab win when a Russian sponsored channel is reporting the mass deletion of BAME voters in predominately BAME constituencies, the final election result is projected thus:
Con 331 seats (-34 on 2019)
Lab 214 seats (+12 on 2019)
SNP 55 seats (+ 7 on 2019)
Northern Ireland 18 seats (DUP 10 +2, SF 6 -1, SDLP 1 -1, Alliance 1 unchanged)
LDm 11 seats (unchanged on 2019)
Plaid 5 seats (+1 seat on 2019)
Greens 2 seats (+1 on 2019)
Speaker 1 seat (unchanged on 2019)
which leaves 13 seats won by "Other Parties". Even in the best case scenario the others would only win two (Ashfield and East Devon) so can people guess what 13 seats the Others could win based on 2019 and if they cannot find 13, did Channel 4 mess up their maths?
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Post by bjornhattan on Feb 7, 2023 17:15:44 GMT
In the Channel 4 drama "The Undeclared War" which focuses primarily on the BBC's exit poll being terribly wrong and pointing to a Lab win when a Russian sponsored channel is reporting the mass deletion of BAME voters in predominately BAME constituencies, the final election result is projected thus: Con 331 seats (-34 on 2019) Lab 214 seats (+12 on 2019) SNP 55 seats (+ 7 on 2019) Northern Ireland 18 seats (DUP 10 +2, SF 6 -1, SDLP 1 -1, Alliance 1 unchanged) LDm 11 seats (unchanged on 2019) Plaid 5 seats (+1 seat on 2019) Greens 2 seats (+1 on 2019) Speaker 1 seat (unchanged on 2019) which leaves 13 seats won by "Other Parties". Even in the best case scenario the others would only win two (Ashfield and East Devon) so can people guess what 13 seats the Others could win based on 2019 and if they cannot find 13, did Channel 4 mess up their maths? I'm not convinced their maths was their first priority - dramatic effect would come first. But I do note that the Brexit Party or Reform UK isn't in their list - presumbaly they would have a reasonable crack at taking Dagenham and Rainham or Barking if the deletions were heavily biased towards minorities. Perhaps they would be two of the seats? |
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Post by Arthur Figgis on Feb 7, 2023 17:19:55 GMT
In the Channel 4 drama "The Undeclared War" which focuses primarily on the BBC's exit poll being terribly wrong and pointing to a Lab win when a Russian sponsored channel is reporting the mass deletion of BAME voters in predominately BAME constituencies, the final election result is projected thus: Con 331 seats (-34 on 2019) Lab 214 seats (+12 on 2019) SNP 55 seats (+ 7 on 2019) Northern Ireland 18 seats (DUP 10 +2, SF 6 -1, SDLP 1 -1, Alliance 1 unchanged) LDm 11 seats (unchanged on 2019) Plaid 5 seats (+1 seat on 2019) Greens 2 seats (+1 on 2019) Speaker 1 seat (unchanged on 2019) which leaves 13 seats won by "Other Parties". Even in the best case scenario the others would only win two (Ashfield and East Devon) so can people guess what 13 seats the Others could win based on 2019 and if they cannot find 13, did Channel 4 mess up their maths? Did you do their prediction? |
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Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,922
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Feb 7, 2023 19:17:51 GMT
In the Channel 4 drama "The Undeclared War" which focuses primarily on the BBC's exit poll being terribly wrong and pointing to a Lab win when a Russian sponsored channel is reporting the mass deletion of BAME voters in predominately BAME constituencies, the final election result is projected thus: Con 331 seats (-34 on 2019) Lab 214 seats (+12 on 2019) SNP 55 seats (+ 7 on 2019) Northern Ireland 18 seats (DUP 10 +2, SF 6 -1, SDLP 1 -1, Alliance 1 unchanged) LDm 11 seats (unchanged on 2019) Plaid 5 seats (+1 seat on 2019) Greens 2 seats (+1 on 2019) Speaker 1 seat (unchanged on 2019) which leaves 13 seats won by "Other Parties". Even in the best case scenario the others would only win two (Ashfield and East Devon) so can people guess what 13 seats the Others could win based on 2019 and if they cannot find 13, did Channel 4 mess up their maths? Did you do their prediction? No, those are the numbers as reported on the broadcast (which is available to view on All 4 either online or via catch up tv series) |
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Post by Arthur Figgis on Feb 7, 2023 21:31:43 GMT
Did you do their prediction? No, those are the numbers as reported on the broadcast (which is available to view on All 4 either online or via catch up tv series) I suppose I should have known- they haven’t come up with negative numbers or fractions. |
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Post by greatkingrat on Feb 7, 2023 21:59:14 GMT
In the Channel 4 drama "The Undeclared War" which focuses primarily on the BBC's exit poll being terribly wrong and pointing to a Lab win when a Russian sponsored channel is reporting the mass deletion of BAME voters in predominately BAME constituencies, the final election result is projected thus: Con 331 seats (-34 on 2019) Lab 214 seats (+12 on 2019) SNP 55 seats (+ 7 on 2019) Northern Ireland 18 seats (DUP 10 +2, SF 6 -1, SDLP 1 -1, Alliance 1 unchanged) LDm 11 seats (unchanged on 2019) Plaid 5 seats (+1 seat on 2019) Greens 2 seats (+1 on 2019) Speaker 1 seat (unchanged on 2019) which leaves 13 seats won by "Other Parties". Even in the best case scenario the others would only win two (Ashfield and East Devon) so can people guess what 13 seats the Others could win based on 2019 and if they cannot find 13, did Channel 4 mess up their maths? Maybe instead of just deleting BAME voters, they actually deleted 13 constituencies completely? |
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peterl
Green
Congratulations President Trump
Posts: 8,473
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Post by peterl on Feb 8, 2023 2:17:04 GMT
Funny, I've was watching this on All 4 only last night and I did think the same think about the "others". This would certainly be a very interesting Parliament. On the whole though, I found it quite entertaining and reasonably realistic, barring perhaps the scale of the riots at the end.
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Post by nobodyimportant on Feb 8, 2023 19:15:10 GMT
That's probably the number of MPs they're projecting will have been suspended from their party before the results come in.
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Post by greenchristian on Feb 8, 2023 20:48:13 GMT
13 seats where a candidate died during the official election period, leading to a postponed poll?
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Post by tonyhill on Feb 9, 2023 6:35:16 GMT
Isn't it a very similar number to the MPs who have had the whip withdrawn for various reasons and are therefore currently (at least at the time the programme was devised) sitting as Independents? One can imagine some junior researcher looking at the figures and having little comprehension of what they actually mean.
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peterl
Green
Congratulations President Trump
Posts: 8,473
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Post by peterl on Feb 9, 2023 19:42:43 GMT
Isn't it a very similar number to the MPs who have had the whip withdrawn for various reasons and are therefore currently (at least at the time the programme was devised) sitting as Independents? One can imagine some junior researcher looking at the figures and having little comprehension of what they actually mean. Again, a strong case for a skilled technical consultant to be employed. You wouldn't make a show about doctors without taking advice about the medical stuff, or a lawyer show without taking advice about the legal stuff. Why make a show about politics without an elections expert on hand? |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Feb 10, 2023 2:20:40 GMT
Isn't it a very similar number to the MPs who have had the whip withdrawn for various reasons and are therefore currently (at least at the time the programme was devised) sitting as Independents? One can imagine some junior researcher looking at the figures and having little comprehension of what they actually mean. Again, a strong case for a skilled technical consultant to be employed. You wouldn't make a show about doctors without taking advice about the medical stuff, or a lawyer show without taking advice about the legal stuff. Why make a show about politics without an elections expert on hand? Brilliant idea, instant employment for all of us! |
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Post by Arthur Figgis on Feb 10, 2023 7:01:12 GMT
Again, a strong case for a skilled technical consultant to be employed. You wouldn't make a show about doctors without taking advice about the medical stuff, or a lawyer show without taking advice about the legal stuff. Why make a show about politics without an elections expert on hand? Brilliant idea, instant employment for all of us! Well, some. |
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Post by pollhunter on May 3, 2023 8:18:11 GMT
Maybe Dominic Cummings Start-Up Party?
In all seriousness they probably weren’t thinking about exact numbers. Maybe there are just independents like Zadrozny, Wright, Halloran, Corbyn and maybe some others
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Post by therealriga on May 3, 2023 10:10:38 GMT
Unfortunately, a lot of these shows mess up on the basics. Even the otherwise excellent UK original of House of Cards had the Conservatives going from a 100-seat majority to a 30-seat majority and the newspaper editor snarling that "losing 70 bloody seats isn't exactly a vote of confidence!"
(Of course, it could be that they lost 70 and won 35, but from other similar errors in the same show it's way more likely that they simply mucked up and the person responsible didn't get how majorities work.)
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,946
Member is Online
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Post by The Bishop on May 3, 2023 12:00:10 GMT
Mind you, its also quite believable that a newspaper hack would get this wrong  (see also - the widespread misuse of "swing" in the US, which does seem to be creeping up in usage over here) |
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Post by pollhunter on May 3, 2023 17:45:12 GMT
In the Channel 4 drama "The Undeclared War" which focuses primarily on the BBC's exit poll being terribly wrong and pointing to a Lab win when a Russian sponsored channel is reporting the mass deletion of BAME voters in predominately BAME constituencies, the final election result is projected thus: Con 331 seats (-34 on 2019) Lab 214 seats (+12 on 2019) SNP 55 seats (+ 7 on 2019) Northern Ireland 18 seats (DUP 10 +2, SF 6 -1, SDLP 1 -1, Alliance 1 unchanged) LDm 11 seats (unchanged on 2019) Plaid 5 seats (+1 seat on 2019) Greens 2 seats (+1 on 2019) Speaker 1 seat (unchanged on 2019) which leaves 13 seats won by "Other Parties". Even in the best case scenario the others would only win two (Ashfield and East Devon) so can people guess what 13 seats the Others could win based on 2019 and if they cannot find 13, did Channel 4 mess up their maths? I'm not convinced their maths was their first priority - dramatic effect would come first. But I do note that the Brexit Party or Reform UK isn't in their list - presumbaly they would have a reasonable crack at taking Dagenham and Rainham or Barking if the deletions were heavily biased towards minorities. Perhaps they would be two of the seats? There were no deletions. That was anecdotal social media chatter. The Russians hacked the BBC exit poll to make it look like the Conservatives rigged the actual election (which was explicitly unriggable) |
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Post by therealriga on May 3, 2023 18:25:45 GMT
Mind you, its also quite believable that a newspaper hack would get this wrong (see also - the widespread misuse of "swing" in the US, which does seem to be creeping up in usage over here) Very true. But I seem to remember there were other similar errors in the programme which suggested it was more down to the writers not getting the concept of majority (that losses for one party meant gains for the other.) I'd need to rewatch it again, though. |
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Post by anthony on May 30, 2023 19:09:51 GMT
... or a lawyer show without taking advice about the legal stuff. Why make a show about politics without an elections expert on hand? Which is why Suits is so realistic. |
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nyx
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,040
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Post by nyx on May 30, 2023 20:51:51 GMT
In the Channel 4 drama "The Undeclared War" which focuses primarily on the BBC's exit poll being terribly wrong and pointing to a Lab win when a Russian sponsored channel is reporting the mass deletion of BAME voters in predominately BAME constituencies, the final election result is projected thus: Con 331 seats (-34 on 2019) Lab 214 seats (+12 on 2019) SNP 55 seats (+ 7 on 2019) Northern Ireland 18 seats (DUP 10 +2, SF 6 -1, SDLP 1 -1, Alliance 1 unchanged) LDm 11 seats (unchanged on 2019) Plaid 5 seats (+1 seat on 2019) Greens 2 seats (+1 on 2019) Speaker 1 seat (unchanged on 2019) which leaves 13 seats won by "Other Parties". Even in the best case scenario the others would only win two (Ashfield and East Devon) so can people guess what 13 seats the Others could win based on 2019 and if they cannot find 13, did Channel 4 mess up their maths? The minor parties are probably the hardest results to explain. It's easy enough for Plaid to get Dwyfor Meirionydd, Ceredigion Preseli, Carmarthen, and Ynys Mon, but the fifth is difficult to see. Llanelli? Northern Ireland is similarly awkward as I don't see Sinn Fein losing any of their seven seats, especially if the UUP didn't gain so Fermanagh and South Tyrone didn't flip. I suppose the DUP must have gained Belfast North and North Down, with Alliance gaining Belfast South from the SDLP. Also I suspect that predominately BAME constituencies would tend to be safe Labour so I'm not sure that plot point would actually lead to a lot of seats shifting... As for the independents... I suppose suspended Labour leftists? Jeremy Corbyn, maybe Diane Abbott etc. |
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