Local Council by-elections 23rd February 2023

[Tony Otim]

Feb 24, 2023 11:56:53 GMT jollyroger93 said:

Very good result for Labour, good result for the conservatives to and for the Lib Dem's who see there vote holding up, Alba just real outing in a by election.... not sure if they would be happy with that or wanted a bit more....

Alba certainly seemed to be putting in quite a bit of effort.

[La Fontaine]

Nitpicking again: the maximum number of stages with 8 candidates is 7. Yet the Aberdeen council say Labour were elected at stage 8!

Labour actually elected at stage 7 by 1971 votes to SNP's 1729.

[robert1]

Sorry I was vague earlier. Was in a meeting while receiving information.

As has been said, very good for Labour and bad for SNP who should have gained the seat. Although 2022 was a poor year for the Conservatives in Scotland in comparison with 2017, they will be pleased to have retained vote share in relation to what appears to have been a fairly strong personal vote.

It will be interesting to see how things go in Edinburgh and Stirling next month.

[John Chanin]

As usual with Scottish elections what we need to see is the transfers. It is a constant annoyance that they are so hard to come by.

[aidypiez]

Feb 24, 2023 14:09:49 GMT John Chanin said:

As usual with Scottish elections what we need to see is the transfers. It is a constant annoyance that they are so hard to come by.

Ask and ye shall receive...

[Peter Wilkinson]

Feb 24, 2023 13:17:38 GMT La Fontaine said:

Nitpicking again: the maximum number of stages with 8 candidates is 7. Yet the Aberdeen council say Labour were elected at stage 8!

Labour actually elected at stage 7 by 1971 votes to SNP's 1729.

Nitpicking further: that would be true if the Scottish authorities used an algorithm that counted STV or AV votes efficiently. But they don't, so the successful candidate(s) only get elected when their votes get re-counted at the stage after the one at which the final unsuccessful candidate was eliminated. So the winning candidate did get elected at stage 8.

That does, though, lead to the interesting question of how many stages the Scottish authorities require for counting FPTP votes at UK general elections. Is it:

• 2 stages, with all unsuccessful candidates having been eliminated simultaneously at stage 1 and the winning candidate's votes getting re-counted (without, of course, any transfers)? Or
• as many stages as there are candidates, with one candidate getting eliminated at each stage and the votes for the remaining candidates re-counted at the next (again, of course, without any transfers)?

[La Fontaine]

Feb 24, 2023 14:23:17 GMT Peter Wilkinson said:

Feb 24, 2023 13:17:38 GMT La Fontaine said:

Nitpicking again: the maximum number of stages with 8 candidates is 7. Yet the Aberdeen council say Labour were elected at stage 8!

Labour actually elected at stage 7 by 1971 votes to SNP's 1729.

Nitpicking further: that would be true if the Scottish authorities used an algorithm that counted STV or AV votes efficiently. But they don't, so the successful candidate(s) only get elected at the stage after the one at which the final unsuccessful candidate was eliminated. So the winning candidate did get elected at stage 8.

That does, though, lead to the interesting question of how many stages the Scottish authorities require for counting FPTP votes at UK general elections. Is it:

• 2 stages, with all unsuccessful candidates having been eliminated simultaneously at stage 1? Or
• as many stages as there are candidates, with one candidate getting eliminated at each stage and the votes for the remaining candidates re-counted at the next (without, of course, any transfers)?

See rules 53 and 55, which specify when the count is complete. There is nothing wrong wrong with the algorithm. The software ignores these rules.  It's a bug!

[La Fontaine]

Feb 24, 2023 14:23:17 GMT Peter Wilkinson said:

Feb 24, 2023 13:17:38 GMT La Fontaine said:

Nitpicking again: the maximum number of stages with 8 candidates is 7. Yet the Aberdeen council say Labour were elected at stage 8!

Labour actually elected at stage 7 by 1971 votes to SNP's 1729.

Nitpicking further: that would be true if the Scottish authorities used an algorithm that counted STV or AV votes efficiently. But they don't, so the successful candidate(s) only get elected when their votes get re-counted at the stage after the one at which the final unsuccessful candidate was eliminated. So the winning candidate did get elected at stage 8.

That does, though, lead to the interesting question of how many stages the Scottish authorities require for counting FPTP votes at UK general elections. Is it:

• 2 stages, with all unsuccessful candidates having been eliminated simultaneously at stage 1 and the winning candidate's votes getting re-counted (without, of course, any transfers)? Or
• as many stages as there are candidates, with one candidate getting eliminated at each stage and the votes for the remaining candidates re-counted at the next (again, of course, without any transfers)?

See rules 53 and 55, which specify when a count is complete. The software simply ignores these rules. It's a bug!

[No Offence Alan]

Feb 24, 2023 14:36:11 GMT La Fontaine said:

Feb 24, 2023 14:23:17 GMT Peter Wilkinson said:

Nitpicking further: that would be true if the Scottish authorities used an algorithm that counted STV or AV votes efficiently. But they don't, so the successful candidate(s) only get elected when their votes get re-counted at the stage after the one at which the final unsuccessful candidate was eliminated. So the winning candidate did get elected at stage 8.

That does, though, lead to the interesting question of how many stages the Scottish authorities require for counting FPTP votes at UK general elections. Is it:

• 2 stages, with all unsuccessful candidates having been eliminated simultaneously at stage 1 and the winning candidate's votes getting re-counted (without, of course, any transfers)? Or
• as many stages as there are candidates, with one candidate getting eliminated at each stage and the votes for the remaining candidates re-counted at the next (again, of course, without any transfers)?

See rules 53 and 55, which specify when a count is complete. The software simply ignores these rules. It's a bug!

But it is useful for auditing the count, to ensure you finish with the same number of votes you started with.

[yellowperil]

The Lab majority at stage 7 was rather bigger than I had expected- indeed I had on balance thought the SNP would scrape home, and indeed that had been the majority view on the prediction competition. Neverthless several of us had qualified that prediction by saying it would be likely very close. In the event,a majority of 242 wasn't that close, and it was predominantly down to the 502 Con>Lab transfers at stage 7. I suppose it does indicate how for many Scottish Tories the constitutional question trumps everything else?

One further thought- had the Tories stayed ahead of Labour in the early stages- and there really wasn't that much in it- I do wonder what the result would have been if it had been Labour going out at stage 7. My guess is that more Labour votes would have transferred to SNP and probably the latter would have got home reasonably comfortably? 

[minionofmidas]

Feb 24, 2023 15:37:08 GMT yellowperil said:

The Lab majority at stage 7 was rather bigger than I had expected- indeed I had on balance thought the SNP would scrape home, and indeed that had been the majority view on the prediction competition. Neverthless several of us had qualified that prediction by saying it would be likely very close. In the event,a majority of 242 wasn't that close, and it was predominantly down to the 5012 Con>Lab transfers at stage 7.

Or rather the massive 457 netted at that stage. Really not a lot of Tory-Tartantory transfers.

I suppose it does indicate how for many Scottish Tories the constitutional question trumps everything else?

One further thought- had the Tories stayed ahead of Labour in the early stages- and there really wasn't that much in it- I do wonder what the result would have been if it had been Labour going out at stage 7. My guess is that more Labour votes would have transferred to SNP and probably the latter would have got home reasonably comfortably? 

Probably. But note Labour pulling gradually away from the Tories.

[YL]

Feb 24, 2023 14:09:49 GMT John Chanin said:

As usual with Scottish elections what we need to see is the transfers. It is a constant annoyance that they are so hard to come by.

As pointed out Ballot Box Scotland tweeted a plot showing the transfers. But Aberdeen Council's page reporting the result, which just gives the first preferences and the eventual winner, really is poor, and does not give the result in any meaningful sense. A mildly conspiracy theory minded SNP supporter looking at it could easily read it as "the SNP got most votes, but then after applying some mysterious rules we decided Labour won".

[michaelarden]

Feb 24, 2023 15:37:08 GMT yellowperil said:

One further thought- had the Tories stayed ahead of Labour in the early stages- and there really wasn't that much in it- I do wonder what the result would have been if it had been Labour going out at stage 7. My guess is that more Labour votes would have transferred to SNP and probably the latter would have got home reasonably comfortably? 

My thought too. 

[Tony Otim]

Feb 24, 2023 16:14:30 GMT YL said:

Feb 24, 2023 14:09:49 GMT John Chanin said:

As usual with Scottish elections what we need to see is the transfers. It is a constant annoyance that they are so hard to come by.

As pointed out Ballot Box Scotland tweeted a plot showing the transfers. But Aberdeen Council's page reporting the result, which just gives the first preferences and the eventual winner, really is poor, and does not give the result in any meaningful sense. A mildly conspiracy theory minded SNP supporter looking at it could easily read it as "the SNP got most votes, but then after applying some mysterious rules we decided Labour won".

A mildly conspiracy theory minded SNP supporter - surely such a person does not exist, I've never encountered anyone like that, no sir, not at all...

[clyde1998]

Feb 24, 2023 16:14:30 GMT YL said:

Feb 24, 2023 14:09:49 GMT John Chanin said:

As usual with Scottish elections what we need to see is the transfers. It is a constant annoyance that they are so hard to come by.

As pointed out Ballot Box Scotland tweeted a plot showing the transfers. But Aberdeen Council's page reporting the result, which just gives the first preferences and the eventual winner, really is poor, and does not give the result in any meaningful sense. A mildly conspiracy theory minded SNP supporter looking at it could easily read it as "the SNP got most votes, but then after applying some mysterious rules we decided Labour won".

It is on the website, if you go looking for it, however that page is not linked in the news about the election result (which most people will see) and in the 'Elections and voting' page is under the sixth item in the 'More information' list - so not even obvious when looking in the right place.

[YL]

Feb 24, 2023 16:37:35 GMT clyde1998 said:

Feb 24, 2023 16:14:30 GMT YL said:

As pointed out Ballot Box Scotland tweeted a plot showing the transfers. But Aberdeen Council's page reporting the result, which just gives the first preferences and the eventual winner, really is poor, and does not give the result in any meaningful sense. A mildly conspiracy theory minded SNP supporter looking at it could easily read it as "the SNP got most votes, but then after applying some mysterious rules we decided Labour won".

It is on the website, if you go looking for it, however that page is not linked in the news about the election result (which most people will see) and in the 'Elections and voting' page is under the sixth item in the 'More information' list - so not even obvious when looking in the right place.

Thanks; I'm sure that detail wasn't available earlier.

[nobodyimportant]

Feb 24, 2023 12:31:06 GMT jamesdoyle said:

GWBWI

PC +41
Lab +38
Con +3
Grn -3
LDm -4
SNP -16

ASV

PC +0.7
Lab +0.6
Con +0.0
Grn +0.0
LDm -0.1
SNP -0.3

So the Conservative score is positive when they went from a weak result to no candidate in Wales and lost vote share in Scotland, and the Lib Dem score is negative when we went from no candidate to a weak result in Wales and gained vote share in Scotland.

[YL]

	Count 1	McLean transfers	Count 2	Family transfers	Count 3	Green transfers	Count 4	Alba transfers	Count 5	LD transfers	Count 6	Con transfers	Count 7
Lab	1227	6	1233	22	1255	27	1282	24	1306	153	1459	512	1971
SNP	1455	6	1461	4	1465	48	1513	91	1604	70	1674	55	1729
Con	1190	2	1192	9	1201	4	1205	11	1216	94	1310
Lib Dem	452	8	460	4	464	16	480	11	491
Alba	178	3	181	2	183	8	191
Green	111	5	116	5	121
Family	60	8	68
McLean	52
Non-transferable		14	14	22	36	18	54	54	108	174	282	743	1025

[johnloony]

So the SNP got 91 out of 191 votes from Alba, and 48 out of 121 from Green. Those proportions are about what I would have expected. It is too naive to think that the SNP would (or “should”) get all (or most) votes from Alba, just because of where the Alba party split from. The very fact that Alba split away from the SNP at all is a clue that there is a reason for not simply giving their votes back when it comes to transfers. (Similarly I am reminded of a transfer rate of only about 1-in-4 votes being transferred mutually to and from the SSP and Solidarity about 15 or whenever years ago).

[michaelarden]

Feb 24, 2023 17:26:13 GMT YL said:

	Count 1	McLean transfers	Count 2	Family transfers	Count 3	Green transfers	Count 4	Alba transfers	Count 5	LD transfers	Count 6	Con transfers	Count 7
Lab	1227	6	1233	22	1255	27	1282	24	1306	153	1459	512	1971
SNP	1455	6	1461	4	1465	48	1513	91	1604	70	1674	55	1729
Con	1190	2	1192	9	1201	4	1205	11	1216	94	1310
Lib Dem	452	8	460	4	464	16	480	11	491
Alba	178	3	181	2	183	8	191
Green	111	5	116	5	121
Family	60	8	68
McLean	52
Non-transferable		14	14	22	36	18	54	54	108	174	282	743	1025

Interesting transfers - particularly Alba and the Tories.