mrtoad
Labour
He is a toad. Who knows what a toad thinks?
Posts: 424
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Post by mrtoad on Feb 17, 2023 7:37:48 GMT
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,905
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Post by YL on Feb 17, 2023 8:05:55 GMT
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Feb 17, 2023 8:30:18 GMT
When did they move from the Burroughs? |
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mrtoad
Labour
He is a toad. Who knows what a toad thinks?
Posts: 424
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Post by mrtoad on Feb 17, 2023 8:53:02 GMT
When did they move from the Burroughs? Good spot - all the back office and working bits were transferred to Colindale in 2019. The Hendon Town Hall in The Burroughs remains in use for committee and full council meetings and ceremonial business. Most of the The Burroughs site was part of a (not very popular) redevelopment involving Middlesex University taking it over. |
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Post by phil156 on Feb 17, 2023 9:23:23 GMT
Hopefully we have the share of the vote up & down soon too. Turnout here was the lowest yesterday 17% |
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Post by andrewp on Feb 17, 2023 9:28:44 GMT
Hopefully we have the share of the vote up & down soon too. Turnout here was the lowest yesterday 17% I’m surprised that the turnout wasn’t lower! Lab + 9.7% Con + 2.4% From May 2022 |
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Post by evergreenadam on Feb 17, 2023 9:32:01 GMT
St Neots The Eatons LDm 1042 Con 746 Ind 360 Lab 250 LDm gain from Ind Structural decline for the Tories in (parts of) Cambridgeshire now? I was thinking that too, looking at the map St Neots is sandwiched between the Lib Dem Mayoralty in Bedford and Lib Dem South Cambridgeshire so perhaps not surprising if some of that influence is beginning to rub off. |
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Post by andrewp on Feb 17, 2023 9:36:30 GMT
St Neots The Eatons LDm 1042 Con 746 Ind 360 Lab 250 LDm gain from Ind Structural decline for the Tories in (parts of) Cambridgeshire now? Well I don’t doubt that the Cambridge impact means that the Tories are in decline in southern Cambridgeshire, but purely on the numbers that result was nothing like as bad as the national polls are for them. Their share was Down about 5% from a 2021 baseline when they were 10% ahead nationally. |
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Post by carolus on Feb 17, 2023 9:39:38 GMT
Structural decline for the Tories in (parts of) Cambridgeshire now? I was thinking that too, looking at the map St Neots is sandwiched between the Lib Dem Mayoralty in Bedford and Lib Dem South Cambridgeshire so perhaps not surprising if some of that influence is beginning to rub off. Perhaps the influence of St Ives Lib Dems?  |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Feb 17, 2023 9:41:12 GMT
St Neots The Eatons LDm 1042 Con 746 Ind 360 Lab 250 LDm gain from Ind Structural decline for the Tories in (parts of) Cambridgeshire now? There is, but much less so in St Neots than in parts further east, and within the town you would expect it to be least advanced in the Eatons. |
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pl
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,664 
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Post by pl on Feb 17, 2023 9:49:19 GMT
Structural decline for the Tories in (parts of) Cambridgeshire now? Well I don’t doubt that the Cambridge impact means that the Tories are in decline in southern Cambridgeshire, but purely on the numbers that result was nothing like as bad as the national polls are for them. Their share was Down about 5% from a 2021 baseline when they were 10% ahead nationally. My gut would say that in low(er) turnout by-elections we've got the following going on: 1. In the national polls we have a lot of the Cons--> Don't Know voters 2. These DK voters include a fair chunk of otherwise committed Conservative voters who are generally not happy at the moment but haven't switched parties 3. Local by-elections usually include a fair chunk of postal voters, which in a lot of places are heavy in Conservative and older voters 4. Those "Don't Know" usually Conservative voters are voting Conservative when push comes to shove when confronted by a postal ballot papers |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Feb 17, 2023 9:50:26 GMT
Structural decline for the Tories in (parts of) Cambridgeshire now? Well I don’t doubt that the Cambridge impact means that the Tories are in decline in southern Cambridgeshire, but purely on the numbers that result was nothing like as bad as the national polls are for them. Their share was Down about 5% from a 2021 baseline when they were 10% ahead nationally. Although, to state the obvious, the collapse of the local indy vote rather complicates that picture and makes it rather more difficult to draw meaningful conclusions compared to national swing. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Feb 17, 2023 9:51:13 GMT
Structural decline for the Tories in (parts of) Cambridgeshire now? I was thinking that too, looking at the map St Neots is sandwiched between the Lib Dem Mayoralty in Bedford and Lib Dem South Cambridgeshire so perhaps not surprising if some of that influence is beginning to rub off. I think you're over thinking this. This part of St Neots (and St Neots generally) was an area of Lib Dem strength throughout the nineties and the noughties and before the St Neots Independents supplanted them for a while. There's also plenty of Lib Dem support in Southern Huntingdonshire generally (Godmanchester, Brampton etc) so I don't think any influence from Bedford is that necessary. It loks to me like this is a return to 'normal' service with the Lib Dems replacing the St Neots Independents |
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Post by bigfatron on Feb 17, 2023 10:01:19 GMT
Well I don’t doubt that the Cambridge impact means that the Tories are in decline in southern Cambridgeshire, but purely on the numbers that result was nothing like as bad as the national polls are for them. Their share was Down about 5% from a 2021 baseline when they were 10% ahead nationally. My gut would say that in low(er) turnout by-elections we've got the following going on: 1. In the national polls we have a lot of the Cons--> Don't Know voters 2. These DK voters include a fair chunk of otherwise committed Conservative voters who are generally not happy at the moment but haven't switched parties 3. Local by-elections usually include a fair chunk of postal voters, which in a lot of places are heavy in Conservative and older voters 4. Those "Don't Know" usually Conservative voters are voting Conservative when push comes to shove when confronted by a postal ballot papers The Eatons is a part of Cambridgeshire where a good chunk of the 'naturally Tory' vote actually voted for the localist independents at local elections in recent years. There wasn't a lot of campaigning from the Independent this time, and despite inks to the localist group he was not standing under their logo, so that led to a big drop in the Independent vote; but those votes have not returned to the Tories despite a serious campaign, they have either sat it out (to your point above) or voted Lib Dem. Each opposition party has a discrete area of strength in St Neots - Lib Dems in the Eatons, Greens in the new builds east of the station (where the Tories came nowhere), and Labour are strongest in Eynesbury - that could make it tricky for the Tories here to secure seats comfortably in any part of St Neots. |
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Post by carolus on Feb 17, 2023 10:09:10 GMT
Perhaps worth noting that in the Huntingdonshire DC elections last year, the result in St Neots Eatons was:
SNIG - 875*/787/761
Con - 818*/814*/763
LD - 626/501/465
Ind - 502
G - 301/190/185
The ward isn't identical to the division, but it's pretty close (the division extends slightly further north, but I think that's only a very small fraction of the electors). So I suspect a significant portion of the groundwork had already been laid last year for this result.
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Post by grahammurray on Feb 17, 2023 10:35:07 GMT
Hopefully we have the share of the vote up & down soon too. Turnout here was the lowest yesterday 17% I’m surprised that the turnout wasn’t lower! Lab + 9.7% Con + 2.4% From May 2022 It was! 12.7%, according to the council scorecard. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Feb 17, 2023 11:12:37 GMT
That must be painful for the Greens and LibDems Cornwall Con 503 LD 811 Green 244 Lab 230 That must be painful for the Greens and Labour Why, did they also finish behind a micro-party? |
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Post by minionofmidas on Feb 17, 2023 11:16:36 GMT
Cornwall Con 503 LD 811 Green 244 Lab 230 That must be painful for the Greens and Labour Why, did they also finish behind a micro-party? The Sefton result must be painful to the Champian. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Feb 17, 2023 11:24:45 GMT
I’m surprised that the turnout wasn’t lower! Lab + 9.7% Con + 2.4% From May 2022 It was! 12.7%, according to the council scorecard. Though that remains higher than in another Bootle byelection late last year. |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Feb 17, 2023 11:30:02 GMT
Much better than ours in Barnet. Which is a bit *sucks teeth*. Still a couple of gains 👍. And one of those in a target constituency. Is the proposed St Neots & Mid Cambridgeshire not a target constituency? Probably not. South Cambs is obviously the top LD target in the area and it's unlikely they'll have the resources to seriously target more than two seats in Cambridgeshire. Although the notional majorities are similar in East Cambs and St Neots, in practice Lib Dem organisation and status as the usual challenger is better established in the former than the latter and the underlying demographics seem a bit better for them too. |
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