Local Council by-elections 9th February 2023

[phil156]

They are all counting after the polls have closed except DARTFORD which is tomorrow sadly

[minionofmidas]

What is that part of Hitchin - or Hitchin as such, even - like? Why is it safe Labour?

[Pete Whitehead]

Feb 9, 2023 17:17:18 GMT minionofmidas said:

What is that part of Hitchin - or Hitchin as such, even - like? Why is it safe Labour?

Its quite multi-ethnic - large Asian population (largely Sikh, a strongly Labour demographic) non-negligible black population too. It isn't massively downmarket on the whole but its also attracted a kind of leftie middle class, types who commute to London or Cambridge, similar to St Albans. Its one of relatively few areas in Hertfordshire that have trended Labour over the last few decades.

[East Anglian Lefty]

Feb 9, 2023 17:39:17 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Feb 9, 2023 17:17:18 GMT minionofmidas said:

What is that part of Hitchin - or Hitchin as such, even - like? Why is it safe Labour?

Its quite multi-ethnic - large Asian population (largely Sikh, a strongly Labour demographic) non-negligible black population too. It isn't massively downmarket on the whole but its also attracted a kind of leftie middle class, types who commute to London or Cambridge, similar to St Albans. Its one of relatively few areas in Hertfordshire that have trended Labour over the last few decades.

Judging by the census figures, I wouldn't describe it as particularly multi-ethnic - 79.4% of people in the Bearton MSOA define themselves as white and it's 80.2% in Walsworth. That's somewhat more diverse than the south of town or neighbouring towns, but only by a couple of percent. I'd say it's the commuter demographic that is more significant - Bearton is about 30% private-rented, with the highest figures in the south of the MSOA around the train station. The exact proportion of commuters is difficult to work out for the usual reason that lockdown and WFH obfuscate things, but a lot more of Hitchin said they work from home than did in Stevenage (and slightly more than in Letchworth) which does point in the direction of it being the first choice for commuters in the area.

[Pete Whitehead]

Feb 9, 2023 18:00:43 GMT East Anglian Lefty said:

Feb 9, 2023 17:39:17 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Its quite multi-ethnic - large Asian population (largely Sikh, a strongly Labour demographic) non-negligible black population too. It isn't massively downmarket on the whole but its also attracted a kind of leftie middle class, types who commute to London or Cambridge, similar to St Albans. Its one of relatively few areas in Hertfordshire that have trended Labour over the last few decades.

Judging by the census figures, I wouldn't describe it as particularly multi-ethnic - 79.4% of people in the Bearton MSOA define themselves as white and it's 80.2% in Walsworth. That's somewhat more diverse than the south of town or neighbouring towns, but only by a couple of percent. I'd say it's the commuter demographic that is more significant - Bearton is about 30% private-rented, with the highest figures in the south of the MSOA around the train station. The exact proportion of commuters is difficult to work out for the usual reason that lockdown and WFH obfuscate things, but a lot more of Hitchin said they work from home than did in Stevenage (and slightly more than in Letchworth) which does point in the direction of it being the first choice for commuters in the area.

Well that itself is revealing. On 2011 figures Hitchin North was 74.8% white and was 79.8% in 2001. So it was actually much less white than average for Hertfordshire previously but now is not so different from the average. - certainly a rare case in Hertfordshire of the white proportion increasing. That is no doubt a consequence of the increased commuter element.

[andrewteale]

Welsh Conservatives Twitter reckons they have gained Rhyl Tŷ Newydd.

[timrollpickering]

[Tony Otim]

Feb 9, 2023 23:23:38 GMT timrollpickering said:

At least Labour can't say the Lib Dems cost them the seat...

[olympian95]

LDs confident in North Yorks

[Deleted]

Feb 9, 2023 23:23:38 GMT timrollpickering said:

Well that's a nasty shock. Though this being West Merseyside North Wales probably has very little to do with actual party politics as that seems to be virtually irrelevant to local elections there

[carlton43]

Feb 9, 2023 23:23:38 GMT timrollpickering said:

Wonderful result and what an upset for the competition.

[aidypiez]

[andrewp]

The very predictable LD gain in Cheltenham

[iang]

Britain Elects reports Lib Dem gain in Cheltenham with just over 50% of the vote

[carlton43]

Feb 9, 2023 23:49:33 GMT aidypiez said:

That is far more a vote for the Countess of Swinton than anything at all to do with the LDs.

It could even be thought of as a class vote of Upper Class over Middle Class?

[andrewp]

Rhyl numbers

Conservative - 337
Labour - 326
Plaid - 101
Independent - 72
Lib Dem- 5

[melthamhd94nn]

The really interesting question is why the Countess is standing for the Lib Dems.

[andrewp]

Cheltenham, Battledown

LD 877
Con 609
Green 156
Lab 43.

[maxque]

Feb 9, 2023 23:59:36 GMT melthamhd94nn said:

The really interesting question is why the Countess is standing for the Lib Dems.

They transformed the family seat roughly 20 years ago into a eco-luxury sustainable hotel (so, before it was trendy). I assume that means a bit about their values.

[oldhamexile]

Feb 9, 2023 23:59:36 GMT melthamhd94nn said:

The really interesting question is why the Countess is standing for the Lib Dems.

Her mother-in-law is Willie Whitelaw's daughter. Whether Willie Whitelaw would fit into today's Tory Party is perhaps doubtful.