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Post by batman on Jan 13, 2023 12:21:01 GMT
that last sentence is a good point Tony, everyone here predicted a Green win in Chaddlewood whereas the predictions for Moor View were almost evenly divided.
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Post by andrewp on Jan 13, 2023 13:33:47 GMT
As far as the Tory/Green contest is concerned, it is quite possible the inaugural Green councillor elected last year had a personal vote (it was the same candidate who came from nowhere - Greens had never even stood before - to run the Tories close in 2021) So some degree of slippage from then maybe isn't surprising. Greens will still be very pleased to have taken the other seat in this ward (this is one of the few Plymouth divisions with just two councillors) I think that’s quite possibly true . The first councillor from a party who ‘breaks through’ in a previous no hope ward is often somebody with a big personal vote/ who has worked hard/ is the best candidate available from that party. The subsequent candidates are often on their coat tails and perhaps not as strong. I expected a bit of a swing back away from the Greens. Plus of course the Lib Dems stood yesterday having not previously stood so the drop in the Green vote is probably partly that in this instance. |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Jan 13, 2023 13:39:24 GMT
Can't see the Tories running Plymouth for too much longer. Anyone recall how many of the independents are ex-Tory and therefore likely to back a Tory administration? I thought all but one were ex-Tory. Whether they would support a Tory administration, though, is another question altogether- I thought the ex -Torys were virulently anti- Tory administration? In my experience in these parts ex-Labour councillors become virulently anti-Labour while ex-Conservative councillors become virulently anti-Conservative. But perhaps that's a Cheshire thing. |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jan 13, 2023 15:42:58 GMT
How many of those councillors are ex-Conservative, versus being dissident Conservatives with hopes of returning to the group under a future leader, though?
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Post by owainsutton on Jan 13, 2023 17:27:42 GMT
As far as the Tory/Green contest is concerned, it is quite possible the inaugural Green councillor elected last year had a personal vote (it was the same candidate who came from nowhere - Greens had never even stood before - to run the Tories close in 2021) So some degree of slippage from then maybe isn't surprising. Greens will still be very pleased to have taken the other seat in this ward (this is one of the few Plymouth divisions with just two councillors) I think that’s quite possibly true . The first councillor from a party who ‘breaks through’ in a previous no hope ward is often somebody with a big personal vote/ who has worked hard/ is the best candidate available from that party. The subsequent candidates are often on their coat tails and perhaps not as strong. I expected a bit of a swing back away from the Greens. There's a strong factor that pushes the other way, for us. After the breakthrough gain, we demolish any remaining doubts about "the Greens couldn't possibly win here". Especially when dealing with Labour-leaning voters and a Tory incumbent. |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,901
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Post by Tony Otim on Jan 13, 2023 17:55:00 GMT
I think that’s quite possibly true . The first councillor from a party who ‘breaks through’ in a previous no hope ward is often somebody with a big personal vote/ who has worked hard/ is the best candidate available from that party. The subsequent candidates are often on their coat tails and perhaps not as strong. I expected a bit of a swing back away from the Greens. There's a strong factor that pushes the other way, for us. After the breakthrough gain, we demolish any remaining doubts about "the Greens couldn't possibly win here". Especially when dealing with Labour-leaning voters and a Tory incumbent. Although in this particular case, the near miss in 2021 had probably done a lot of that already... |
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Post by owainsutton on Jan 13, 2023 18:05:43 GMT
There's a strong factor that pushes the other way, for us. After the breakthrough gain, we demolish any remaining doubts about "the Greens couldn't possibly win here". Especially when dealing with Labour-leaning voters and a Tory incumbent. Although in this particular case, the near miss in 2021 had probably done a lot of that already... True. Same here locally, with Hale Central. We missed by 5%, then halved the 3rd/4th-place vote shares a year later. |
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Post by John Chanin on Jan 13, 2023 20:26:01 GMT
I think that’s quite possibly true . The first councillor from a party who ‘breaks through’ in a previous no hope ward is often somebody with a big personal vote/ who has worked hard/ is the best candidate available from that party. The subsequent candidates are often on their coat tails and perhaps not as strong. I expected a bit of a swing back away from the Greens. There's a strong factor that pushes the other way, for us. After the breakthrough gain, we demolish any remaining doubts about "the Greens couldn't possibly win here". Especially when dealing with Labour-leaning voters and a Tory incumbent. Clearly both factors apply in different circumstances. But many of these bolts from the blue work because of complacency as much as assiduous local campaigning, and with fundamental Green support quite low, blowback also happens - eg Castle Bromwich. |
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Post by owainsutton on Jan 14, 2023 9:14:44 GMT
Castle Bromwich had the additional factor this year of particularly messy situation for the local Greens. What doesn't happen for us, for other small parties or for independents, is for a ward to stay the way it's swung, without the targeted work on the ground continuing.
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Post by grahammurray on Jan 14, 2023 18:24:03 GMT
The fact that Labour's vote is up in numerical terms, despite a low turnout byelection on a rainy day in January, is a notable sign. Surely it's notable only in the sense of how rarely it occurs at the moment. Especially given the supposed Labour poll lead. |
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Post by Peter Wilkinson on Jan 14, 2023 19:09:28 GMT
The fact that Labour's vote is up in numerical terms, despite a low turnout byelection on a rainy day in January, is a notable sign. Surely it's notable only in the sense of how rarely it occurs at the moment. Especially given the supposed Labour poll lead. The Labour vote was a bit over 100 up on last May, and the total vote getting on for 1,000 down. And Labour already had a fairly substantial national poll lead last May, even if far less than its current reported level. If we were talking about a parliamentary by-election with a total vote this time of about 26,000, your argument would indeed be valid given those numeric differences. But we are talking about a council by-election with a total vote this time of about 2,600, and a swing to Labour from May to January in this ward that was quite a bit higher than the national swing over the same period. Or are you arguing that if the total vote this time had been down from about 3,600 to about 1,600 and Labour had increased its vote from 1,300 to 1,400 (which by that point would have been well over 80% of the total vote), the situation would still not have been notable? |
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Post by grahammurray on Jan 14, 2023 19:20:10 GMT
Surely it's notable only in the sense of how rarely it occurs at the moment. Especially given the supposed Labour poll lead. The Labour vote was a bit over 100 up on last May, and the total vote getting on for 1,000 down. And Labour already had a fairly substantial national poll lead last May, even if far less than its current reported level. If we were talking about a parliamentary by-election with a total vote this time of about 26,000, your argument would indeed be valid given those numeric differences. But we are talking about a council by-election with a total vote this time of about 2,600, and a swing to Labour from May to January in this ward that was quite a bit higher than the national swing over the same period. Or are you arguing that if the total vote this time had been down from about 3,600 to about 1,600 and Labour had increased its vote from 1,300 to 1,400 (which by that point would have been well over 80% of the total vote), the situation would still not have been notable? I'm arguing that it should be a far more common occurence than it is. This result in Plymouth is no doubt a good one for Labour but it should be the norm rather than the exception. Most by-elections at the moment are not comparisons to 2022 but to earlier years. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jul 17, 2023 13:16:12 GMT
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