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Post by rockefeller on Jan 13, 2023 4:24:31 GMT
Maybe Johnny Mercer isn't as secure as the 2019 result in Plymouth, Moor View suggests
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Post by andrewp on Jan 13, 2023 5:56:53 GMT
The changes since the last contests in those wards in May, rather than the last time the vacant seat was contested, which I think is what is often reported.
Moor View
Lab + 17.5%
Con -19.9%
LD -1.4%
Green -0.8%
TUSC -0.4%
Ind n/a
Swing Con to Lab 18.7%
Chaddlewood
Green -12.8%
Con -5.7%
Lab -2.7%
LD, Ind, TUSC new
Swing Green to Con 3.6%
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Post by andrewp on Jan 13, 2023 6:01:58 GMT
Can't see the Tories running Plymouth for too much longer. Anyone recall how many of the independents are ex-Tory and therefore likely to back a Tory administration? I thought all but one were ex-Tory. Whether they would support a Tory administration, though, is another question altogether- I thought the ex -Torys were virulently anti- Tory administration? Yes one is ex Labour, the rest ex Tory. They are anti Tory administration, it’s just that they are pretty anti Labour administration too. Could get quite messy. |
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Post by swindonlad on Jan 13, 2023 7:10:59 GMT
Maybe Johnny Mercer isn't as secure as the 2019 result in Plymouth, Moor View suggests He may well hang on & hold on due to his high profile, could see this constituency bucking the trend of Labour gains due to this |
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Post by swindonlad on Jan 13, 2023 7:12:33 GMT
I thought all but one were ex-Tory. Whether they would support a Tory administration, though, is another question altogether- I thought the ex -Torys were virulently anti- Tory administration? Yes one is ex Labour, the rest ex Tory. They are anti Tory administration, it’s just that they are pretty anti Labour administration too. Could get quite messy. According to the Plymouth website 4 of the 5 independent alliance members are up for election this year, which should make things clearer after the election |
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Post by yellowperil on Jan 13, 2023 7:26:50 GMT
Yes one is ex Labour, the rest ex Tory. They are anti Tory administration, it’s just that they are pretty anti Labour administration too. Could get quite messy. According to the Plymouth website 4 of the 5 independent alliance members are up for election this year, which should make things clearer after the election or maybe not? |
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Post by jamesdoyle on Jan 13, 2023 7:34:08 GMT
GWBWI
Lab +69
Grn +47
LDm -1
Con -128
ASV
Lab +1.1
Grn +0.8
LDm +0.0
Con -2.1
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Post by John Chanin on Jan 13, 2023 7:56:07 GMT
The changes since the last contests in those wards in May, rather than the last time the vacant seat was contested, which I think is what is often reported. Moor View Lab + 17.5% Con -19.9% LD -1.4% Green -0.8% TUSC -0.4% Ind n/a Swing Con to Lab 18.7% Chaddlewood Green -12.8% Con -5.7% Lab -2.7% LD, Ind, TUSC new Swing Green to Con 3.6% Agree this is a better illustration of how things are going. But a 19% swing is still absolutely enormous, even given the negative resigning councillor factor, even if the 27% swing since the last election of this seat is misleading. How different we are seeing results in the south compared to the north, even in working class seats, where polling shows poorer supporters of leaving the EU are the main group swinging hard to Labour. I fancy we may see very wide variations in swings at the next general election, superimposed on what the overall national pattern turns out to be. |
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Post by No Offence Alan on Jan 13, 2023 8:55:41 GMT
Maybe Johnny Mercer isn't as secure as the 2019 result in Plymouth, Moor View suggests of Labour gains due to this A lot of Lib Dems around 2013 thought similarly. |
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iang
Lib Dem
Posts: 1,814
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Post by iang on Jan 13, 2023 9:15:34 GMT
And even more in 2014, when we did comparatively better in the locals (won every ward in Yardley for example). There was, with hindsight hopelessly optimistic feeling of "maybe it won't be so bad - most of our MPs have high personal votes etc". Whilst true, that wasn't enough to save them in the circumstances
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Post by matureleft on Jan 13, 2023 9:31:49 GMT
And even more in 2014, when we did comparatively better in the locals (won every ward in Yardley for example). There was, with hindsight hopelessly optimistic feeling of "maybe it won't be so bad - most of our MPs have high personal votes etc". Whilst true, that wasn't enough to save them in the circumstances 1997 demonstrated this pretty clearly. There were some decent Tories, as local activists and representatives, who were nevertheless swept away in the flood with little or any discrimination. People are conscious that they are electing a government. That said John Chanin is correct. There will be some wide variations but I doubt they’ll be based much on personal esteem - in a general election that might be worth a few hundred votes, if that. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,925
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Post by The Bishop on Jan 13, 2023 9:53:09 GMT
Having said that, I do suspect Mercer may be one MP with an unusually large personal vote (ie thousands rather than hundreds)
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Post by matureleft on Jan 13, 2023 10:03:48 GMT
Having said that, I do suspect Mercer may be one MP with an unusually large personal vote (ie thousands rather than hundreds) Well we know from comments on this site that he has admiration from some surprising quarters... Yes, people often like mavericks. However they may note that the remarks he made when excluded by Truss didn't lead to any serious action (in part because she'd gone before he could reflect properly, I suppose). And he fits the armed forces background that some might like in Plymouth. But I think his main opponent is also from that life too? |
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batman
Labour
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Post by batman on Jan 13, 2023 10:04:42 GMT
Having said that, I do suspect Mercer may be one MP with an unusually large personal vote (ie thousands rather than hundreds) yes, that's very likely true, but that's already factored into the previous results in all likelihood. It may not have grown greatly since 2019. |
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Jan 13, 2023 10:13:36 GMT
Having said that, I do suspect Mercer may be one MP with an unusually large personal vote (ie thousands rather than hundreds) Well we know from comments on this site that he has admiration from some surprising quarters... Yes, people often like mavericks. However they may note that the remarks he made when excluded by Truss didn't lead to any serious action (in part because she'd gone before he could reflect properly, I suppose). And he fits the armed forces background that some might like in Plymouth. But I think his main opponent is also from that life too? The other aspect of Mercer being a maverick, is that it wouldn't be terribly surprising if he decided that he doesn't support the Conservatives, let alone his voters. Don't see him defecting but can easily imagine him deciding to stand down. |
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batman
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Post by batman on Jan 13, 2023 10:29:36 GMT
Of course we should take note of caveats such as the cause of the by-elections which wasn't great for the Tories by any means. But even so, the Moor View result is extremely good for Labour, and it's also noteworthy, given that the cause of both by-elections was identical, that the Tories did much better in Plympton (a traditionally good area for them) than Moor View (which largely isn't until much more recent years). Also generally thought to be fairly unusual is that the turnout was significantly higher in the more working-class Moor View than in Plympton. Many polls have suggested that when Sunak took over from Truss he enjoyed a decent recovery amongst traditional Tory voters in better-off areas, but much less so amongst poorer voters. Could this be an example of this? - although it is important not to read too much into by-election results, especially at somewhat odd times of the year. David noted that the Labour vote was actually numerically up since May. That is quite interesting and one then starts to wonder if there is a local factor specific to this election, or if it's more a national phenomenon writ locally. The latter is often more likely. Andrew in his Preview noted that the Labour candidate in Moor View is a hospital cleaner. I wonder if he is particularly well-known in the local community? Perhaps someone with local connections, including our highly esteemed Admin, might have an idea? Or is it that a very working-class local candidate from the local area did well in his own working-class community? Or is it public support for health workers more generally finding an expression in a by-election? Whatever is the case - and I can't pretend to have the answers, as I don't know Plymouth well and know that part of it not at all - it is a strikingly good result for Labour and took us all (in varying degrees, though) by surprise. The Greens may just be a little disappointed to have done less well than in May, but again there may be particular local reasons for that, and when all's said & done they still won easily enough.
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batman
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Post by batman on Jan 13, 2023 10:30:29 GMT
Well we know from comments on this site that he has admiration from some surprising quarters... Yes, people often like mavericks. However they may note that the remarks he made when excluded by Truss didn't lead to any serious action (in part because she'd gone before he could reflect properly, I suppose). And he fits the armed forces background that some might like in Plymouth. But I think his main opponent is also from that life too? The other aspect of Mercer being a maverick, is that it wouldn't be terribly surprising if he decided that he doesn't support the Conservatives, let alone his voters. Don't see him defecting but can easily imagine him deciding to stand down. he has already threatened to do so on one previous occasion |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jan 13, 2023 10:36:45 GMT
As far as the Tory/Green contest is concerned, it is quite possible the inaugural Green councillor elected last year had a personal vote (it was the same candidate who came from nowhere - Greens had never even stood before - to run the Tories close in 2021) So some degree of slippage from then maybe isn't surprising.
Greens will still be very pleased to have taken the other seat in this ward (this is one of the few Plymouth divisions with just two councillors)
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Post by phil156 on Jan 13, 2023 10:54:59 GMT
The changes since the last contests in those wards in May, rather than the last time the vacant seat was contested, which I think is what is often reported. Moor View Lab + 17.5% Con -19.9% LD -1.4% Green -0.8% TUSC -0.4% Ind n/a Swing Con to Lab 18.7% Chaddlewood Green -12.8% Con -5.7% Lab -2.7% LD, Ind, TUSC new Swing Green to Con 3.6% |
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Jan 13, 2023 12:05:49 GMT
As far as the Tory/Green contest is concerned, it is quite possible the inaugural Green councillor elected last year had a personal vote (it was the same candidate who came from nowhere - Greens had never even stood before - to run the Tories close in 2021) So some degree of slippage from then maybe isn't surprising. Greens will still be very pleased to have taken the other seat in this ward (this is one of the few Plymouth divisions with just two councillors) Quite - whilst it was obviously not as strong a result as the Labour one in Moor View, it was still a relatively comfortable win with a new candidate who now has 16 months to build her profile before facing re-election. Also, May was a really good result for us in that ward, so a little fall back is only to be expected. Plus in May the Green was the only non- Con, non-Lab candidate, this time there were 3 others who got 15.8% combined, the Green vote went down 12.8%. Obviously not all of that 15.8% would have gone Green without other candidates, but a reasonable proportion probably would have. So overall this feels a decent solid result, whilst the Labour one feels really very good. With regard to the differing turnout, I wonder if the Conservatives were more resigned to losing Chaddlewood whilst Moor View was more fiercely contested perhaps? |
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