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Post by gwynthegriff on Jan 6, 2023 21:52:21 GMT
Today on this thread has been an entirely unpleasant experience on what I had considered a non-partisan and rather minor observation that I had not expected to gain responses to. So, I shall give these election and by election columns a complete miss henceforth until we get to the next GE. Probably best all round. I will confine my observations to the active threads in the Blue Room. correct me if I'm wrong, but aren't you the gentlemen who talks about snowflakes? I only put forward a contrary view and wasn't rude about it at all, that really isn't my way. Snoflakes in his case. Also regularly talks down the significance of (parliamentary) byelections. I was rather surprised by his reading so much into a low turnout local council byelection. But, hey, which of us on here can claim consistency? |
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Post by yellowperil on Jan 6, 2023 22:24:31 GMT
correct me if I'm wrong, but aren't you the gentlemen who talks about snowflakes? I only put forward a contrary view and wasn't rude about it at all, that really isn't my way. They do not like it up 'em. They do not like it! I was a little concerned for Carlton and his reaction to this particular debate. I do not understand the vehemence of his response to the arguments put before him from the red side, which were put cogently and quite politely, and I can say that as somebody who neverthless disagreed with some of their points. Still, if the conclusion is that he confines his remarks to the blue room perhaps we should all be grateful. |
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Post by batman on Jan 6, 2023 22:25:09 GMT
I don't blame those who are inclined towards, or support, the Conservatives trying to get their spirits up where they can. I'm sure people on the other side do that when they/we are losing too. The trick is to try & be as realistic as possible
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Clark
Forum Regular
Posts: 744
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Post by Clark on Jan 8, 2023 15:24:52 GMT
Based on the results of the Etching Hill & The Heath and Cannock West results in recent times, are there any experts in psephology that could generate a rough by-election result in the Cannock Chase constituency?
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Post by andrewp on Jan 8, 2023 15:44:24 GMT
Based on the results of the Etching Hill & The Heath and Cannock West results in recent times, are there any experts in psephology that could generate a rough by-election result in the Cannock Chase constituency? Well, others will do this differently but if we assume a baseline of May 2022 when Labour had a 6% lead over the Conservatives nationally, then the swing in Cannock West since then was 5.8% and the swing in Etching Hill was 8.6% since then. On a pure mathematical basis, that would point to Labour national leads equivalent to either 17.6% or 23.3% ( not a million miles away from current polls) Taking the average of a Labour lead of 20.5%, that’s a swing of c. 15% since the 2019 GE. That swing would lead to a Con hold by about 6000 . Of course in a By election, the constituency may swing to Lab more than that. |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jan 9, 2023 12:15:04 GMT
Even if local elections were a decent guide to national elections, and even if local by-elections were comparable to regular local elections (and neither is really true), Cannock West and Etching Hill wouldn't be a particularly good yardstick for the rest of the constituency as a whole.
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