|
|
Post by michaelarden on Jan 6, 2023 12:38:07 GMT
Etching Hill was though solidly anti Tory for years in the form of the Lib Dems. It was non-Tory; that's not necessarily the same thing. Look at areas like Oldham where the historic LD vote was primarily an anti-Labour vote and after the coalition mostly switched over to the Tories. I note that in the 1980s elections there seem mostly to have been straight SDP/Alliance-Labour contests, which doesn't suggest that the local LDs and predecessors were necessarily on the left. Indeed - but it's significant that this was one (of the many) wards where post coalition the party collapsed and Labour took up the slack as it were. Suggests that it is a centre left sort of area. |
|
|
|
Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jan 6, 2023 12:46:28 GMT
I'm not sure you can call an area where the Tories won for most of the last decade, with occasional UKIP interludes, a centre-left sort of area.
|
|
|
|
Post by michaelarden on Jan 6, 2023 12:58:19 GMT
I'm not sure you can call an area where the Tories won for most of the last decade, with occasional UKIP interludes, a centre-left sort of area. I don't know. It's clear it's not a typical Tory stronghold and UKIP voters were as likely to break Labour as Tory. I suspect the centrist appealing Cameron and then the threat of left wing Corbyn meant that the Tories may have overperformed here recently - but I don't know the area. |
|
|
|
Post by batman on Jan 6, 2023 13:05:45 GMT
it shows no such thing. 2 council by-elections whatever their results are nothing like sufficient to suggest nationwide trends. If I were a Tory I would not be taking all that much comfort from the Cannock Chase result. The reason that the Tory vote held up was essentially that there were only 2 candidates. Although obviously as we all know the area has a mostly Labour past, it isn't even on Labour's target list, not even the very heavily extended one suggested by recent polling, and is a ward Labour hasn't won since the mid-90s, and then on completely different boundaries - it isn't as if it's a traditional Labour ward returning to the party after the recent Johnson-Brexit interlude. There has been a tendency for Labour to do particularly well in ex-coalfield areas in by-elections in recent months, the big exception being in Ashfield constituency. This is another example of that. But some coalfield seats are on Labour's target list, this one isn't and if Labour are anywhere near winning Cannock Chase in a general election it means nationwide calamity for the Tories - but as I say, you can't extrapolate parliamentary results from a council by-election & it would be completely wrong to draw such firm conclusions. Uttlesford is a good result for the Tories; but it's a Tory-inclined small town plus surrounds in a strongly, and traditionally, Tory constituency which has not been lost in a general election in living memory. That is a very fraught and excitable response to a fairly mild post postulating no more than the Conservatives may have bottomed out. I stand by that simple observation as a possibility. Nothing more. there was nothing fraught or excitable about my response. It's an honest, calm & considered psephological analysis of the results bearing in mind the recent history of the areas concerned. I do get excited sometimes when my party wins but that was definitely not an excitable response, I take great care not to indulge in overoptimism. |
|
|
|
Post by batman on Jan 6, 2023 13:07:44 GMT
Look at the results from the last couple of years in the Cannock ward and see what you think then.  The change is quite dramatic.
The Tories did well to take the Uttlesford seat but it's pretty obvious that the Residents/ratepayers/Independents vehicle has run into the sand and is sinking fast. The Tories could even aim to eliminate them entirely in the near future given what we see here. I knew the area when it was solid Labour right through to now. I am very well acquainted with all the figures and rather surprised you would even consider me to be otherwise! My extremely modestly and slight remarks do seem to be evoking a reaction that suggests possible worry within your own rank? This is in no way partisan by me. I genuinely wonder if the Conservatives may just have bottomed out? It may well be that they have bottomed out. But that in itself does not suggest that a significant recovery is on the way. Of course the Tories are doing less badly than they were during Truss's disastrous premiership, but that's saying very little, as you will surely agree. |
|
|
|
Post by batman on Jan 6, 2023 13:08:54 GMT
Even if this was evidence that the Conservatives have bottomed out, why would that be a cause for worry? They've bottomed out at a level where they're losing wards Labour haven't won since 1995. Incidentally, if you want to convince us that you're familiar with all the figures, you might not want to claim that Etching Hill was ever solid Labour, because it doesn't make you sound especially credible. I was obviously talking about Cannock you dim twat and I wish I had never raised any of it now. It was such a small observation and yet you are all, all over it. Why are you all so concerned at what I said? Getting nervy are we? can't speak for East Anglian Lefty of course, but I'm certainly not in the least nervy. And also I don't find it obvious that you were talking about Cannock as a whole (which was indeed a safe Labour seat for a long time after WWII) as opposed to this ward (which if it's ever been safe Labour at all hasn't been for several generations). If one is dealing with a local by-election, best to refer to the ward in question rather than indulging in generalities most of the time. |
|
|
|
Post by batman on Jan 6, 2023 13:14:24 GMT
I'm not sure you can call an area where the Tories won for most of the last decade, with occasional UKIP interludes, a centre-left sort of area. I don't know. It's clear it's not a typical Tory stronghold and UKIP voters were as likely to break Labour as Tory. I suspect the centrist appealing Cameron and then the threat of left wing Corbyn meant that the Tories may have overperformed here recently - but I don't know the area. with the greatest of respect, you're contradicting yourself. You say it's clear it's not a typical Tory stronghold, and then say you don't know the area. The results suggest that it's a right-of-centre area, not left-of-centre - although in past generations that might be less clear. And I did visit the area quite frequently when I was younger. |
|
|
|
Post by iainbhx on Jan 6, 2023 13:35:22 GMT
I don't know. It's clear it's not a typical Tory stronghold and UKIP voters were as likely to break Labour as Tory. I suspect the centrist appealing Cameron and then the threat of left wing Corbyn meant that the Tories may have overperformed here recently - but I don't know the area. with the greatest of respect, you're contradicting yourself. You say it's clear it's not a typical Tory stronghold, and then say you don't know the area. The results suggest that it's a right-of-centre area, not left-of-centre - although in past generations that might be less clear. And I did visit the area quite frequently when I was younger. The old Etching Hill ward has returned Labour councillors three times since it was formed - 1990, 1994 and 1995. It returned Conservatives from 1973 to 1980 when the Liberals broke through, the Liberals won nearly all the elections between 1980 and 2010 apart from the three above. |
|
|
|
Post by minionofmidas on Jan 6, 2023 14:24:35 GMT
Yes, it does seem that Uttlesford is somewhere the Tories could make gains in May - even if that is very much against the national trend. If there is a total Indy/Others collapse there, I do wonder if Labour has a chance of picking up something in Saffron Walden itself at least. Total collapse is hardly suggested by that byelection result, rather a resumption of normal service (Tory majority with Residents as main opposition.) |
|
carlton43
Reform Party
Posts: 50,887 
Member is Online
|
Post by carlton43 on Jan 6, 2023 14:32:42 GMT
Today on this thread has been an entirely unpleasant experience on what I had considered a non-partisan and rather minor observation that I had not expected to gain responses to. So, I shall give these election and by election columns a complete miss henceforth until we get to the next GE. Probably best all round. I will confine my observations to the active threads in the Blue Room.
|
|
maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,299
|
Post by maxque on Jan 6, 2023 15:25:00 GMT
Yes, it does seem that Uttlesford is somewhere the Tories could make gains in May - even if that is very much against the national trend. If there is a total Indy/Others collapse there, I do wonder if Labour has a chance of picking up something in Saffron Walden itself at least. Unlikely, their results in Audley and Castle were 8% and the their result in Shire was 9%. Their best ward was actually Great Baddow South and Barnston (the by-election ward) with 12%. In 2015, their best result was 15% in Saffron Walden Castle (26% in 2011, 15% in 2007 (only ward they had candidates in)). In 2003, they only had candidates in 3 wards and got 30% in Saffron Walden Castle and 31% in Saffron Walden Shire. |
|
sirbenjamin
IFP
True fame is reading your name written in graffiti, but without the words 'is a wanker' after it.
Posts: 4,979
|
Post by sirbenjamin on Jan 6, 2023 15:58:39 GMT
Even if this was evidence that the Conservatives have bottomed out, why would that be a cause for worry? They've bottomed out at a level where they're losing wards Labour haven't won since 1995. Incidentally, if you want to convince us that you're familiar with all the figures, you might not want to claim that Etching Hill was ever solid Labour, because it doesn't make you sound especially credible. I was obviously talking about Cannock you dim twat and I wish I had never raised any of it now. It was such a small observation and yet you are all, all over it. Why are you all so concerned at what I said? Getting nervy are we?
Polling 47% with barely any loss in vote share is hardly a disastrous performance.
In almost any contest with more than two candidates standing it would be enough to win. Local Tories will obviously feel disappointed at losing the seat, but should be quite encouraged that their vote held up as well as it did, given the prevailing narrative.
|
|
sirbenjamin
IFP
True fame is reading your name written in graffiti, but without the words 'is a wanker' after it.
Posts: 4,979
|
Post by sirbenjamin on Jan 6, 2023 15:59:54 GMT
I'm not sure you can call an area where the Tories won for most of the last decade, with occasional UKIP interludes, a centre-left sort of area.
The Tories have been a centre-left party for much of that time...
|
|
|
|
Post by finsobruce on Jan 6, 2023 16:47:33 GMT
Yes, it does seem that Uttlesford is somewhere the Tories could make gains in May - even if that is very much against the national trend. If there is a total Indy/Others collapse there, I do wonder if Labour has a chance of picking up something in Saffron Walden itself at least. Total collapse is hardly suggested by that byelection result, rather a resumption of normal service (Tory majority with Residents as main opposition.) Although a lot of these Residents/localist groups tend to go up like a rocket and down like a stick though. |
|
|
|
Post by finsobruce on Jan 6, 2023 17:11:28 GMT
Yes, it does seem that Uttlesford is somewhere the Tories could make gains in May - even if that is very much against the national trend. If there is a total Indy/Others collapse there, I do wonder if Labour has a chance of picking up something in Saffron Walden itself at least. Unlikely, their results in Audley and Castle were 8% and the their result in Shire was 9%. Their best ward was actually Great Baddow South and Barnston (the by-election ward) with 12%. In 2015, their best result was 15% in Saffron Walden Castle (26% in 2011, 15% in 2007 (only ward they had candidates in)). In 2003, they only had candidates in 3 wards and got 30% in Saffron Walden Castle and 31% in Saffron Walden Shire. The past is a different country. In 1945 Rab Butler was run very close in Saffron Walden by his Labour opponent Sidney Stanley Wilson who was the long serving Mayor of the town.
His putative opponent in the 1940 General Election campaign was to have been Clara Rackham, who had stood in 1935. A very interesting woman and one who afficiandos of Cambridge politics will know very well. She was married to the brother of the famous artist and illustrator Arthur Rackham.
|
|
maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,299
|
Post by maxque on Jan 6, 2023 17:23:07 GMT
Unlikely, their results in Audley and Castle were 8% and the their result in Shire was 9%. Their best ward was actually Great Baddow South and Barnston (the by-election ward) with 12%. In 2015, their best result was 15% in Saffron Walden Castle (26% in 2011, 15% in 2007 (only ward they had candidates in)). In 2003, they only had candidates in 3 wards and got 30% in Saffron Walden Castle and 31% in Saffron Walden Shire. The past is a different country. In 1945 Rab Butler was run very close in Saffron Walden by his Labour opponent Sidney Stanley Wilson who was the long serving Mayor of the town.
His putative opponent in the 1940 General Election campaign was to have been Clara Rackham, who had stood in 1935. A very interesting woman and one who afficiandos of Cambridge politics will know very well. She was married to the brother of the famous artist and illustrator Arthur Rackham.
At the first Uttlesford election in 1976, Labour got their best result ever there, 7 seats. 4/8 in Saffron Walden, 1/4 in Stansted, 1/3 in Great Baddow and the seat in Ashdon (a rural village with some farming labour history due to how cheap and horrible were the local landlords, from what I can read). |
|
|
|
Post by batman on Jan 6, 2023 19:58:28 GMT
Today on this thread has been an entirely unpleasant experience on what I had considered a non-partisan and rather minor observation that I had not expected to gain responses to. So, I shall give these election and by election columns a complete miss henceforth until we get to the next GE. Probably best all round. I will confine my observations to the active threads in the Blue Room. correct me if I'm wrong, but aren't you the gentlemen who talks about snowflakes? I only put forward a contrary view and wasn't rude about it at all, that really isn't my way. |
|
|
|
Post by batman on Jan 6, 2023 20:00:16 GMT
The past is a different country. In 1945 Rab Butler was run very close in Saffron Walden by his Labour opponent Sidney Stanley Wilson who was the long serving Mayor of the town.
His putative opponent in the 1940 General Election campaign was to have been Clara Rackham, who had stood in 1935. A very interesting woman and one who afficiandos of Cambridge politics will know very well. She was married to the brother of the famous artist and illustrator Arthur Rackham.
At the first Uttlesford election in 1976, Labour got their best result ever there, 7 seats. 4/8 in Saffron Walden, 1/4 in Stansted, 1/3 in Great Baddow and the seat in Ashdon (a rural village with some farming labour history due to how cheap and horrible were the local landlords, from what I can read). which is quite strange, as 1976 was a very poor year for Labour generally, although not as bad as 1977, not quite anyway. |
|
|
|
Post by andrewp on Jan 6, 2023 20:18:40 GMT
At the first Uttlesford election in 1976, Labour got their best result ever there, 7 seats. 4/8 in Saffron Walden, 1/4 in Stansted, 1/3 in Great Baddow and the seat in Ashdon (a rural village with some farming labour history due to how cheap and horrible were the local landlords, from what I can read). which is quite strange, as 1976 was a very poor year for Labour generally, although not as bad as 1977, not quite anyway. It was 1973 that Labour won the 7 mentioned in Uttlesford , in 1976 they won 3 ( in Saffron Walden Shire and Castle) and lost by 1 vote in Great Dunmow North. |
|
john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 15,774
|
Post by john07 on Jan 6, 2023 21:44:41 GMT
Today on this thread has been an entirely unpleasant experience on what I had considered a non-partisan and rather minor observation that I had not expected to gain responses to. So, I shall give these election and by election columns a complete miss henceforth until we get to the next GE. Probably best all round. I will confine my observations to the active threads in the Blue Room. correct me if I'm wrong, but aren't you the gentlemen who talks about snowflakes? I only put forward a contrary view and wasn't rude about it at all, that really isn't my way. They do not like it up 'em. They do not like it! |
|
The change is quite dramatic. 
