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Post by jasonharcourt on Jan 6, 2023 9:03:49 GMT
That Cannock Chase result is one of the best Labour results in a while. Rugeley is a Brexity, post-industrial Midlands town and the ward in question never voted Labour during the coalition, the Conservative vote was more than double the Labour vote in a nationally even year like 2018, and the Conservatives were still a decent margin ahead in 2022. On the other hand, the Conservative vote held up while one could suggest Labour hoovered up the votes of the Greens and Independents - obviously the picture is more nuanced but given the national polling situation even compared with the '22 locals, the picture looks more encouraging for the Conservatives than one might otherwise think. |
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carlton43
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Post by carlton43 on Jan 6, 2023 9:17:07 GMT
CANNOCK CHASE, Etching Hill and The Heath - Lab gain from C Lab 422 C 385 Lab 52.3% (+17.0) Con 47.7% (-0.3) The Conservative proportion of vote has held up completely, but Labour is the beneficiary of it having been a straight fight. This is showing, when taken with Uttlesford, that the Conservatives have seemingly passed their bottom position to reach a more stable and possibly upward trend? |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jan 6, 2023 9:32:21 GMT
That Cannock Chase result is one of the best Labour results in a while. Rugeley is a Brexity, post-industrial Midlands town and the ward in question never voted Labour during the coalition, the Conservative vote was more than double the Labour vote in a nationally even year like 2018, and the Conservatives were still a decent margin ahead in 2022. On the other hand, the Conservative vote held up while one could suggest Labour hoovered up the votes of the Greens and Independents - obviously the picture is more nuanced but given the national polling situation even compared with the '22 locals, the picture looks more encouraging for the Conservatives than one might otherwise think. The Conservative vote held up compared to May 2022. That's not encouraging for them, even before we consider what it means if the entirety of the minor party vote would plump for the non-Tory option in a straight fight. |
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Post by batman on Jan 6, 2023 10:12:46 GMT
Lab 52.3% (+17.0) Con 47.7% (-0.3) The Conservative proportion of vote has held up completely, but Labour is the beneficiary of it having been a straight fight. This is showing, when taken with Uttlesford, that the Conservatives have seemingly passed their bottom position to reach a more stable and possibly upward trend? it shows no such thing. 2 council by-elections whatever their results are nothing like sufficient to suggest nationwide trends. If I were a Tory I would not be taking all that much comfort from the Cannock Chase result. The reason that the Tory vote held up was essentially that there were only 2 candidates. Although obviously as we all know the area has a mostly Labour past, it isn't even on Labour's target list, not even the very heavily extended one suggested by recent polling, and is a ward Labour hasn't won since the mid-90s, and then on completely different boundaries - it isn't as if it's a traditional Labour ward returning to the party after the recent Johnson-Brexit interlude. There has been a tendency for Labour to do particularly well in ex-coalfield areas in by-elections in recent months, the big exception being in Ashfield constituency. This is another example of that. But some coalfield seats are on Labour's target list, this one isn't and if Labour are anywhere near winning Cannock Chase in a general election it means nationwide calamity for the Tories - but as I say, you can't extrapolate parliamentary results from a council by-election & it would be completely wrong to draw such firm conclusions. Uttlesford is a good result for the Tories; but it's a Tory-inclined small town plus surrounds in a strongly, and traditionally, Tory constituency which has not been lost in a general election in living memory. |
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Post by london(ex)tory on Jan 6, 2023 10:29:22 GMT
Previews from andrewteale here: medium.com/britainelects/previewing-the-essex-and-staffordshire-by-elections-of-5th-january-2023-4d25369f91bcOne thing worth noting in Uttlesford is that it was planning issues, specifically the submitted draft local plan, which lost the council for the Conservatives in 2019. With Stansted airport on the edge of the district and the M11 giving good London connections, Uttlesford had a lot of development pressure. The new administration withdrew the plan and has been merrily refusing developments they don't like - resulting in the developers successfully appealing. So poor were Uttlesford's stats for defending its refusals that in February 2022 it was the first planning authority to be put into special measures. Developers can now bypass the council and submit their applications directly to the Planning Inspectorate. A lesson for wannabe NIMBYs everywhere. Theresa Villiers & chums please take note! |
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Post by matureleft on Jan 6, 2023 10:41:11 GMT
Previews from andrewteale here: medium.com/britainelects/previewing-the-essex-and-staffordshire-by-elections-of-5th-january-2023-4d25369f91bcOne thing worth noting in Uttlesford is that it was planning issues, specifically the submitted draft local plan, which lost the council for the Conservatives in 2019. With Stansted airport on the edge of the district and the M11 giving good London connections, Uttlesford had a lot of development pressure. The new administration withdrew the plan and has been merrily refusing developments they don't like - resulting in the developers successfully appealing. So poor were Uttlesford's stats for defending its refusals that in February 2022 it was the first planning authority to be put into special measures. Developers can now bypass the council and submit their applications directly to the Planning Inspectorate. A lesson for wannabe NIMBYs everywhere. Theresa Villiers & chums please take note! Well the description suggests unusual incompetence and a dysfunctional member/officer relationship. It is possible to have a plan-based approach, comply with government housing targets and generally resist speculative applications for sites outside the plan. It’s uncomfortable as not everyone will be happy - the housing numbers must be accommodated and neighbours won’t normally welcome that. But you stand some chance of coherent planning linked to infrastructure and protection of better landscapes or urban settings. |
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Post by finsobruce on Jan 6, 2023 10:50:32 GMT
Lab 52.3% (+17.0) Con 47.7% (-0.3) The Conservative proportion of vote has held up completely, but Labour is the beneficiary of it having been a straight fight. This is showing, when taken with Uttlesford, that the Conservatives have seemingly passed their bottom position to reach a more stable and possibly upward trend? Look at the results from the last couple of years in the Cannock ward and see what you think then.  The change is quite dramatic.
The Tories did well to take the Uttlesford seat but it's pretty obvious that the Residents/ratepayers/Independents vehicle has run into the sand and is sinking fast. The Tories could even aim to eliminate them entirely in the near future given what we see here. |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jan 6, 2023 11:19:03 GMT
Yes, it does seem that Uttlesford is somewhere the Tories could make gains in May - even if that is very much against the national trend.
If there is a total Indy/Others collapse there, I do wonder if Labour has a chance of picking up something in Saffron Walden itself at least.
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ricmk
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Post by ricmk on Jan 6, 2023 11:29:35 GMT
Small sample size etc etc. But not the first time recently that in a straight fight the Tories went backwards, but with split opposition they did well. It does suggest that anti-Tory tactical voting is alive and well, and if a clear challenger can be established in seats then they are in trouble. FPTP saving some blue seats as things stand.
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Post by batman on Jan 6, 2023 11:31:09 GMT
it's a very long time since Labour won any seats in Uttlesford at district, as opposed to town council, level. If it were anywhere it would probably be in Saffron Walden in itself.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jan 6, 2023 11:35:43 GMT
And tbh I am a bit baffled about how a swing of nearly 9% against the Tories since last May is being described by some on here as "good" for them.
Cannock is also an area that already saw a large pro-Labour swing between then and 2021.
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carlton43
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Post by carlton43 on Jan 6, 2023 11:45:28 GMT
The Conservative proportion of vote has held up completely, but Labour is the beneficiary of it having been a straight fight. This is showing, when taken with Uttlesford, that the Conservatives have seemingly passed their bottom position to reach a more stable and possibly upward trend? it shows no such thing. 2 council by-elections whatever their results are nothing like sufficient to suggest nationwide trends. If I were a Tory I would not be taking all that much comfort from the Cannock Chase result. The reason that the Tory vote held up was essentially that there were only 2 candidates. Although obviously as we all know the area has a mostly Labour past, it isn't even on Labour's target list, not even the very heavily extended one suggested by recent polling, and is a ward Labour hasn't won since the mid-90s, and then on completely different boundaries - it isn't as if it's a traditional Labour ward returning to the party after the recent Johnson-Brexit interlude. There has been a tendency for Labour to do particularly well in ex-coalfield areas in by-elections in recent months, the big exception being in Ashfield constituency. This is another example of that. But some coalfield seats are on Labour's target list, this one isn't and if Labour are anywhere near winning Cannock Chase in a general election it means nationwide calamity for the Tories - but as I say, you can't extrapolate parliamentary results from a council by-election & it would be completely wrong to draw such firm conclusions. Uttlesford is a good result for the Tories; but it's a Tory-inclined small town plus surrounds in a strongly, and traditionally, Tory constituency which has not been lost in a general election in living memory. That is a very fraught and excitable response to a fairly mild post postulating no more than the Conservatives may have bottomed out. I stand by that simple observation as a possibility. Nothing more. |
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Post by andrewp on Jan 6, 2023 11:48:02 GMT
Yes, it does seem that Uttlesford is somewhere the Tories could make gains in May - even if that is very much against the national trend. If there is a total Indy/Others collapse there, I do wonder if Labour has a chance of picking up something in Saffron Walden itself at least. I think there are a few councils in the South where there are scope for Tory gains in May against Independents/ Others, against a national trend of big losses to Labour. East Devon, North Somerset, West Devon are others. |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jan 6, 2023 11:52:06 GMT
Are those all councils, like Uttlesford, where the Tories are now in opposition?
I can see them losing ground to LibDems and Indies, as well as Labour, in some councils that they currently control.
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Post by andrewp on Jan 6, 2023 11:58:31 GMT
Are those all councils, like Uttlesford, where the Tories are now in opposition? I can see them losing ground to LibDems and Indies, as well as Labour, in some councils that they currently control. West Devon is Tory controlled. North Somerset and East Devon are effectively everybody except the Tories coalitions with Independent leaders. |
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carlton43
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Post by carlton43 on Jan 6, 2023 12:01:52 GMT
The Conservative proportion of vote has held up completely, but Labour is the beneficiary of it having been a straight fight. This is showing, when taken with Uttlesford, that the Conservatives have seemingly passed their bottom position to reach a more stable and possibly upward trend? Look at the results from the last couple of years in the Cannock ward and see what you think then. The change is quite dramatic.
The Tories did well to take the Uttlesford seat but it's pretty obvious that the Residents/ratepayers/Independents vehicle has run into the sand and is sinking fast. The Tories could even aim to eliminate them entirely in the near future given what we see here. I knew the area when it was solid Labour right through to now. I am very well acquainted with all the figures and rather surprised you would even consider me to be otherwise! My extremely modestly and slight remarks do seem to be evoking a reaction that suggests possible worry within your own rank? This is in no way partisan by me. I genuinely wonder if the Conservatives may just have bottomed out? |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jan 6, 2023 12:19:15 GMT
Look at the results from the last couple of years in the Cannock ward and see what you think then. The change is quite dramatic. The Tories did well to take the Uttlesford seat but it's pretty obvious that the Residents/ratepayers/Independents vehicle has run into the sand and is sinking fast. The Tories could even aim to eliminate them entirely in the near future given what we see here. I knew the area when it was solid Labour right through to now. I am very well acquainted with all the figures and rather surprised you would even consider me to be otherwise! My extremely modestly and slight remarks do seem to be evoking a reaction that suggests possible worry within your own rank? This is in no way partisan by me. I genuinely wonder if the Conservatives may just have bottomed out? Even if this was evidence that the Conservatives have bottomed out, why would that be a cause for worry? They've bottomed out at a level where they're losing wards Labour haven't won since 1995. Incidentally, if you want to convince us that you're familiar with all the figures, you might not want to claim that Etching Hill was ever solid Labour, because it doesn't make you sound especially credible. |
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Post by michaelarden on Jan 6, 2023 12:22:15 GMT
I knew the area when it was solid Labour right through to now. I am very well acquainted with all the figures and rather surprised you would even consider me to be otherwise! My extremely modestly and slight remarks do seem to be evoking a reaction that suggests possible worry within your own rank? This is in no way partisan by me. I genuinely wonder if the Conservatives may just have bottomed out? Even if this was evidence that the Conservatives have bottomed out, why would that be a cause for worry? They've bottomed out at a level where they're losing wards Labour haven't won since 1995. Incidentally, if you want to convince us that you're familiar with all the figures, you might not want to claim that Etching Hill was ever solid Labour, because it doesn't make you sound especially credible. Etching Hill was though solidly anti Tory for years in the form of the Lib Dems. |
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carlton43
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Post by carlton43 on Jan 6, 2023 12:32:19 GMT
I knew the area when it was solid Labour right through to now. I am very well acquainted with all the figures and rather surprised you would even consider me to be otherwise! My extremely modestly and slight remarks do seem to be evoking a reaction that suggests possible worry within your own rank? This is in no way partisan by me. I genuinely wonder if the Conservatives may just have bottomed out? Even if this was evidence that the Conservatives have bottomed out, why would that be a cause for worry? They've bottomed out at a level where they're losing wards Labour haven't won since 1995. Incidentally, if you want to convince us that you're familiar with all the figures, you might not want to claim that Etching Hill was ever solid Labour, because it doesn't make you sound especially credible. I was obviously talking about Cannock you dim twat and I wish I had never raised any of it now. It was such a small observation and yet you are all, all over it. Why are you all so concerned at what I said? Getting nervy are we? |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jan 6, 2023 12:32:22 GMT
Even if this was evidence that the Conservatives have bottomed out, why would that be a cause for worry? They've bottomed out at a level where they're losing wards Labour haven't won since 1995. Incidentally, if you want to convince us that you're familiar with all the figures, you might not want to claim that Etching Hill was ever solid Labour, because it doesn't make you sound especially credible. Etching Hill was though solidly anti Tory for years in the form of the Lib Dems. It was non-Tory; that's not necessarily the same thing. Look at areas like Oldham where the historic LD vote was primarily an anti-Labour vote and after the coalition mostly switched over to the Tories. I note that in the 1980s elections there seem mostly to have been straight SDP/Alliance-Labour contests, which doesn't suggest that the local LDs and predecessors were necessarily on the left. |
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The change is quite dramatic. 
