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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Dec 6, 2022 21:37:06 GMT
Parliamentary Prediction Competition for the Stretford and Urmston by election.
15th December 2022
The 9 candidates as a reminder are:
CARTER-KANDOLA Emily Samantha - Conservative
FRYER Anna Corrina - Lib Dem
GIBB Hazel Joy - Independent
GLANCY Christina - Freedom Alliance
JERROME Dan - Green Party
NEWELL Jim - Rejoin EU
SWANSBOROUGH Paul James - Reform UK
WESTERN Andrew Howard - Labour
YVON Julien Alexander – SDP
Rules
1. Predict the Exact percentage score for each of the 9 candidates, to 1 decimal place.
2. Your total predictions must add up to 100%.
3. You will be penalised the amount you are above / below 100%, so please check your predictions carefully.
4. You will be penalised 11.1 points for each candidate missing from your prediction.
5. You will be penalised 11.1 points for predicting the wrong winner.
6. Deadline for Predictions is close of Poll, 10pm on Thursday 15th December 2022.
8. The Winner is the person with the lowest score once scores, including any penalties, have been calculated after the by election.
Have Fun.
DHAA
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peterl
Green
Congratulations President Trump
Posts: 8,473 
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Post by peterl on Dec 7, 2022 0:09:58 GMT
WESTERN Andrew Howard - Labour 66.8
CARTER-KANDOLA Emily Samantha - Conservative 16.5
FRYER Anna Corrina - Lib Dem 7.4
JERROME Dan - Green Party 3.5
SWANSBOROUGH Paul James - Reform UK 2.7
GIBB Hazel Joy - Independent 1.1
YVON Julien Alexander – SDP 0.8
GLANCY Christina - Freedom Alliance 0.7
NEWELL Jim - Rejoin EU 0.5
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johnloony
Conservative
Posts: 24,534
Member is Online
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Post by johnloony on Dec 7, 2022 11:44:09 GMT
Conservative 15.7
Lib Dem 7.7
Independent 0.3
Freedom Alliance 0.2
Green 3.6
Rejoin EU 0.7
Reform UK 2.8
Labour 68.8
SDP 0.2
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Post by owainsutton on Dec 7, 2022 12:10:12 GMT
Labour 71.5
Conservative 11.4
Lib Dem 6.9
Green 4.0
Reform 3.4
Independent 1.1
Rejoin EU 0.8
SDP 0.6
Freedom 0.3
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,905
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Post by YL on Dec 7, 2022 20:00:11 GMT
Lab 69.0
Con 14.7
LD 6.4
Green 3.5
Reform UK 3.0
Ind Gibb 1.6
Rejoin 1.1
Freedom Alliance 0.4
SDP 0.3
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kevinf
Labour
Posts: 806
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Post by kevinf on Dec 10, 2022 18:30:53 GMT
Lab 60
Con 17
Reform 7
Green 6
LD 5
SDP 2.2
Ind 1.6
Freedom 0.7
Rejoin 0.5
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johnloony
Conservative
Posts: 24,534
Member is Online
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Post by johnloony on Dec 10, 2022 21:12:15 GMT
Labour 71.5 Conservative 11.4 Lib Dem 6.9 Green 4.0 Reform 3.4 Independent 1.1 Rejoin EU 0.8 SDP 0.6 Freedom 0.3 When I made my predikshun, I started by applying the same swings as happened in City of Chester, and then adjusted slightly to account for S&U being a safe Labour seat. I think you did the same thing but without adjusting. So I’ll be annoyed if your prediction is closer than mine. |
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Post by owainsutton on Dec 11, 2022 9:04:33 GMT
Labour 71.5 Conservative 11.4 Lib Dem 6.9 Green 4.0 Reform 3.4 Independent 1.1 Rejoin EU 0.8 SDP 0.6 Freedom 0.3 When I made my predikshun, I started by applying the same swings as happened in City of Chester, and then adjusted slightly to account for S&U being a safe Labour seat. I think you did the same thing but without adjusting. So I’ll be annoyed if your prediction is closer than mine. Yeah, I used the same starting point, but then went with manual adjustments instead, including accounting for Labour running the kind of operation in this by-election that isn't typical for a safe seat. (Popular candidate, and a good training opportunity, I guess) |
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batman
Labour
Posts: 12,368
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Post by batman on Dec 11, 2022 11:48:25 GMT
Lab 66.9
C 17.1
LD 5.5
Green 4.1
RefUK 3.9
SDP 0.8
Ind 0.7
RejoinEU 0.6
FA 0.4
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Dec 11, 2022 11:59:52 GMT
Lab 66.9 C 17.1 LD 5.5 Green 4.1 RefUK 4.0 SDP 0.9 Ind 0.8 RejoinEU 0.7
GLANCY Christina - Freedom Alliance is currently missing from your prediction, this will incur a 11.1 points penalty if not changed.
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batman
Labour
Posts: 12,368
Member is Online
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Post by batman on Dec 11, 2022 14:58:00 GMT
thanks Daft H'a'porth, will edit my prediction forthwith.
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Dec 11, 2022 16:28:39 GMT
Lab 66.9 C 17.1 LD 5.5 Green 4.1 RefUK 3.9 SDP 0.8 Ind 0.7 RejoinEU 0.6 FA 0.4 Now accepted. |
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Post by jamesmanc22 on Dec 12, 2022 14:16:07 GMT
Labour Party 70.5%
Conservative party 16%
Lib Dems 4.3%
Green 4.0%
RefUK 3.5%
SDP 0.6%
RejoinEU 0.5%
Independent 0.4%
Freedom alliance 0.2%
Labour Hold
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nyx
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,029
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Post by nyx on Dec 12, 2022 15:45:24 GMT
Labour 67.3%
Conservative 14.8%
Lib Dem 5.0%
Green 4.4%
Reform 3.6%
SDP 2.1%
Ind 1.3%
Rejoin 1.2%
FA 0.3%
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Post by markgoodair on Dec 12, 2022 19:49:16 GMT
Labour 67.2
Conservative 15.6
Liberal Democrat 10.9
Green 4.0
Reform 1.1
Rejoin 0.6
Freedom Alliance 0.4
Ind 0.2
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Dec 12, 2022 21:09:05 GMT
Labour 67.2 Conservative 15.6 Liberal Democrat 10.9 Green 4.0 Reform 1.1 Rejoin 0.6 Freedom Alliance 0.4 Ind 0.2
YVON Julien Alexander – SDP is currently missing from your prediction, this will incur a 11.1 points penalty if not changed.
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Dec 12, 2022 21:13:20 GMT
CARTER-KANDOLA Emily Samantha - Conservative 18.8
FRYER Anna Corrina - Lib Dem 5.1
GIBB Hazel Joy - Independent 0.7
GLANCY Christina - Freedom Alliance 0.4
JERROME Dan - Green Party 2.9
NEWELL Jim - Rejoin EU 0.5
SWANSBOROUGH Paul James - Reform UK 2.1
WESTERN Andrew Howard - Labour 68.6
YVON Julien Alexander – SDP 0.9
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Post by markgoodair on Dec 13, 2022 9:17:13 GMT
Labour 67.2
Conservative 15.6
Liberal Democrat 10.9
Green 4.0
Reform 1.1
Rejoin 0.6
Freedom Alliance 0.4
Ind 0.1
SDP 0.1
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Dec 13, 2022 9:55:46 GMT
Labour 67.2 Conservative 15.6 Liberal Democrat 10.9 Green 4.0 Reform 1.1 Rejoin 0.6 Freedom Alliance 0.4 Ind 0.1 SDP 0.1
Now accepted.
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batman
Labour
Posts: 12,368
Member is Online
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Post by batman on Dec 13, 2022 10:27:40 GMT
0.1% - the beginning of a great new movement  |
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