Stretford & Urmston - 15th December 2022

[johnloony]

Apart from one person predicting 60.0, we are all predicting Labour between 66.8 and 71.5.
Conservative all between 11.4 and 18.8.

Either this is going to be one of the most boring by-elections in recent decades, or something will happen that nobody knows about.

[owainsutton]

Dec 13, 2022 10:41:30 GMT johnloony said:

Apart from one person predicting 60.0, we are all predicting Labour between 66.8 and 71.5.
Conservative all between 11.4 and 18.8.

Either this is going to be one of the most boring by-elections in recent decades, or something will happen that nobody knows about.

*furtively fidgets with shirt sleeves*

[LDCaerdydd]

Conservative = 18.1
Liberal Democrats = 5.6
Independent = 1.8
Freedom Alliance = 0.4
Green = 4.2
Rejoin EU = 0.8
Reform UK = 3.6
Labour = 65.1
SDP = 0.4

100

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11 entries so far, all accepted.

[Pete Whitehead]

Lab	69.8%
Con	15.6%
LD	5.3%
Grn	3.8%
Ref	3.4%
EU	0.9%
SDP	0.6%
FA	0.4%
Ind	0.2%

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12 entries now accepted.

Competition open for entries until close of poll, 10pm tonight.

[Richard Cromwell]

Stretford and Urmston

LAB	75%
CON	15%
Reform	5%
LDEM	4%
GRN	1%
IND	0%
SDP	0%
Rejoin	0%
Freedom Alliance	0%

[clyde1998]

Emily Carter-Kandola	Conservative	15.7%
Anna Fryer	Liberal Democrats	5.5%
Hazel Gibb	Independent	0.8%
Christina Glancy	Freedom Alliance	0.4%
Dan Jerrmone	Green	4.0%
Jim Newell	Rejoin EU	0.7%
Paul Swansborough	Reform UK	3.5%
Andrew Western	Labour	68.7%
Julien Yvon	SDP	0.7%

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14 entries so far all accepted.

Closing of competition is at 10pm (in just under an hour)

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Competition Closed.

14 entries accepted.

14 out of 14 predict a Labour win over Conservatives ranging from 43.00% lead by kevinf to lead 60.10% by owainsutton a range of 17.10%

For each party the prediction ranges are

CARTER-KANDOLA Emily Samantha - Conservative predictions from 11.40% by owainsutton to 18.80% by DHAA a range of 7.40%
FRYER Anna Corrina - Lib Dem predictions from 4.00% by Richard Cromwell to 10.90% by markgoodair a range of 6.90%
GIBB Hazel Joy - Independent predictions from 0.00% by Richard Cromwell to 1.80% by LDCaerdydd a range of 1.80%
GLANCY Christina - Freedom Alliance predictions from 0.00% by Richard Cromwell to 0.70% by peterl & kevinf a range of 0.70%
JERROME Dan - Green Party predictions from 1.00% by Richard Cromwell to 6.00% by owainsutton a range of 5.00%
NEWELL Jim - Rejoin EU predictions from 0.00% by Richard Cromwell to 1.20% by nyx a range of 1.20%
SWANSBOROUGH Paul James - Reform UK predictions from 1.10% by marcgoodair to 7.00% by owainsutton a range of 5.90%
WESTERN Andrew Howard - Labour predictions from 60.00% by peterl to 75.00% by Richard Cromell a range of 15.00%
YVON Julien Alexander – SDP predictions from 0.00% by Richard Cromwell to 2.20% by peterl a range of 2.20%

[nyx]

List of all percentages predicted:

WESTERN Andrew Howard - Labour 60.0, 65.1, 66.8, 66.9, 67.2, 67.3, 68.6, 68.7, 68.8, 69.0, 69.8, 70.5, 71.5, 75.0
CARTER-KANDOLA Emily Samantha - Conservative 11.4, 14.7, 14.8, 15.0, 15.6, 15.6, 15.7, 15.7, 16.0, 16.5, 17.0, 17.1, 18.1, 18.8
FRYER Anna Corrina - Lib Dem 4.0, 4.3, 5.0, 5.0, 5.1, 5.3, 5.5, 5.5, 5.6, 6.4, 6.9, 7.4, 7.7, 10.9
JERROME Dan - Green Party 1.0, 2.9, 3.5, 3.5, 3.6, 3.8, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.1, 4.2, 4.4, 6.0
SWANSBOROUGH Paul James - Reform UK 1.1, 2.1, 2.7, 2.8, 3.0, 3.4, 3.4, 3.5, 3.5, 3.6, 3.6, 3.9, 5.0, 7.0
GIBB Hazel Joy - Independent 0.0, 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.7, 0.7, 0.8, 1.1, 1.1, 1.3, 1.6, 1.6, 1.8
YVON Julien Alexander – SDP 0.0, 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.6, 0.6, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.8, 0.9, 2.1, 2.2
NEWELL Jim - Rejoin EU 0.0, 0.4, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.7, 0.8, 0.8, 0.9, 1.1, 1.2
GLANCY Christina - Freedom Alliance 0.0, 0.2, 0.2, 0.3, 0.3, 0.4, 0.4, 0.4, 0.4, 0.4, 0.4, 0.6, 0.7, 0.7

Wonder if any of them will be totally outside the range of what any of us predicted.

[johnloony]

Dec 15, 2022 22:07:57 GMT nyx said:

List of all percentages predicted:

WESTERN Andrew Howard - Labour 60.0, 65.1, 66.8, 66.9, 67.2, 67.3, 68.6, 68.7, 68.8, 69.0, (69.6) 69.8, 70.5, 71.5, 75.0
CARTER-KANDOLA Emily Samantha - Conservative 11.4, 14.7, 14.8, 15.0, 15.6, 15.6, 15.7, 15.7, (15.9) 16.0, 16.5, 17.0, 17.1, 18.1, 18.8
FRYER Anna Corrina - Lib Dem (3.6) 4.0, 4.3, 5.0, 5.0, 5.1, 5.3, 5.5, 5.5, 5.6, 6.4, 6.9, 7.4, 7.7, 10.9
JERROME Dan - Green Party 1.0, 2.9, 3.5, 3.5, 3.6, 3.8, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.1, 4.2, (4.3) 4.4, 6.0
SWANSBOROUGH Paul James - Reform UK 1.1, 2.1, 2.7, 2.8, 3.0, 3.4, 3.4, 3.5, 3.5, (3.5) 3.6, 3.6, 3.9, 5.0, 7.0
GIBB Hazel Joy - Independent 0.0, 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.7, 0.7, 0.8, (1.0) 1.1, 1.1, 1.3, 1.6, 1.6, 1.8
YVON Julien Alexander – SDP 0.0, 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, (0.4) 0.6, 0.6, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.8, 0.9, 2.1, 2.2
NEWELL Jim - Rejoin EU 0.0, 0.4, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.7, 0.8, 0.8, 0.9, 1.1, 1.2 (1.3)
GLANCY Christina - Freedom Alliance 0.0, 0.2, 0.2, 0.3, 0.3, 0.4, 0.4, 0.4, 0.4, 0.4, 0.4, (0.4) 0.6, 0.7, 0.7

Wonder if any of them will be totally outside the range of what any of us predicted.

LD and RejEU

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Some very low scoring in this competition, with everyone on the rostrum scoring less than 5, over the 9 candidates.

Congratulations to jamesmanc22 for winning with a score of only 3.8, and managing to eke Pete Whitehead out of first and into second place who scored a low 4.2 points, just ahead of clyde1998 who completes our top 3 on 4.4 points

Final Result

jamesmanc22 3.8
Pete Whitehead 4.2
clyde1998 4.4
YL 6.8
nyx 7
batman 7.8
johnloony 8.2
DHAA 9.8
LDCaerdydd 10.2
peterl 10.4
owainsutton 11
Richard Cromwell 14.8
marcgoodair 14.9
kevinf 20.8

Thank you to all who took part

DHAA

[johnloony]

Predicting the percentages must be really exciting in the DPRK vote forum