Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 23, 2022 11:31:45 GMT
That said - whenever you get a shock local election result people chime in with 1000 theories about demographics, demographic change, candidates, local issues etc. etc.
I have long been convinced that on many, perhaps even most, occasions, one party just has a mic better local branch than the other. The discrepancy between Blyth Valley and Wansbeck/Hexham wards in the 2021 locals appears to be a fairly classic example
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Dec 23, 2022 11:42:17 GMT
There are too many of these 'unexpected' Conservative by-election gains or good performances to just ignore them as 'one offs' This one stands out because it was the only byelection this week. But the pattern recently has been for the Tories to have one decent/very good result in the week's batch combined with poor/dismal ones elsewhere that, if anything, tend to suggest that the current polling is entirely correct. It has been criticised by some I know, but the "good week/bad week" calculus by jamesdoyle has tended to show this at least fairly well. |
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sirbenjamin
IFP
True fame is reading your name written in graffiti, but without the words 'is a wanker' after it.
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Post by sirbenjamin on Dec 23, 2022 13:31:21 GMT
If Lauren had been the candidate, they might've picked up enough votes to win, right lads?
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sirbenjamin
IFP
True fame is reading your name written in graffiti, but without the words 'is a wanker' after it.
Posts: 4,979
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Post by sirbenjamin on Dec 23, 2022 13:32:22 GMT
In this country most people do Christmas mainly during Advent, and stop doing Christmas as soon as Christmas actually arrives. Which is hopelessly wrongheaded.
Obviously my tree isn't going up until Christmas Eve.
When did your Festivus pole go up? The real question is 'Where'. |
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Post by casualobserver on Dec 23, 2022 13:40:27 GMT
Wow , I thought that was a nailed-on Labour win, when I did my summary of the results since May one week early saying there is one more result to come but that isn't going to change anything!Has anybody any idea about local circumstances to produce that result? There was a very energetic Conservative campaign, as a quick Google search testifies. Labour appeared to be complacent. |
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Post by mattbewilson on Dec 23, 2022 15:13:39 GMT
It would take a considerable swing to unseat Simon Clarke, although all current polls are predicting (perhaps strictly speaking "strongly suggesting") that that would happen. It's the 3rd-safest Tory seat in the North-East after Berwick-on-Tweed & Hexham (neither of which has ever been won by Labour) is a labour seat up until 2017 really thev3rd safest tory seat in the NE. That's mad |
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jamie
Top Poster
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Post by jamie on Dec 23, 2022 15:19:12 GMT
It would take a considerable swing to unseat Simon Clarke, although all current polls are predicting (perhaps strictly speaking "strongly suggesting") that that would happen. It's the 3rd-safest Tory seat in the North-East after Berwick-on-Tweed & Hexham (neither of which has ever been won by Labour) is a labour seat up until 2017 really thev3rd safest tory seat in the NE. That's mad There were only 3 Conservative seats in the NE in 2015 and 1 of them (Stockton South) voted Labour in 2017, so yes. |
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Post by bjornhattan on Dec 23, 2022 15:19:12 GMT
It would take a considerable swing to unseat Simon Clarke, although all current polls are predicting (perhaps strictly speaking "strongly suggesting") that that would happen. It's the 3rd-safest Tory seat in the North-East after Berwick-on-Tweed & Hexham (neither of which has ever been won by Labour) is a labour seat up until 2017 really thev3rd safest tory seat in the NE. That's mad There were only three Conservative seats between 2015 and 2019 (Stockton South was picked up by Labour as Middlesbrough South & EC fell) and only one before that - being a small and almost wholly working class region has traditionally meant nearly all its seats were Labour most of the time. |
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maxque
Non-Aligned
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Post by maxque on Dec 23, 2022 15:32:58 GMT
Two other points to consider:
1. Independents polled 26%. For which party would those electors vote in a GE? I would guess Labour, but...
2. From the SOPN, the Labour candidate was from a nicer neighboorhood (semis instead of terraces) on the other side of Eston. Might have costed a few votes.
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Post by bjornhattan on Dec 23, 2022 15:40:30 GMT
Two other points to consider: 1. Independents polled 26%. For which party would those electors vote in a GE? I would guess Labour, but... 2. From the SOPN, the Labour candidate was from a nicer neighboorhood (semis instead of terraces) on the other side of Eston. Might have costed a few votes. I wouldn't imagine the Labour candidate being from a "nicer" area would cost her - Normanby is very different from somewhere like South Bank and is actually reasonably upmarket for the area. This also isn't an area of terraces; semis and bungalows are far more common in what is a suburban rather than urban area. |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
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Post by Sibboleth on Dec 24, 2022 9:28:05 GMT
Not sure if there are many conclusions that can reasonably be drawn from a low turnout by-election with a winner on a low share of the poll just before Christmas, other, maybe, than that the local Labour Party is not in a good way, but we've known that in this area for fifteen years now. The winning Conservative polled fewer votes than the Conservative candidate took in 2019.
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aslaw
Non-Aligned
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Post by aslaw on Dec 24, 2022 9:33:55 GMT
As someone who has no knowledge of the area I see this as a unsurprising result: very low turnout, no UKIP candidate, a quarter of the votes taken by Independent candidates.
Interested to know what “stance” the Independents took and how that might have impacted. Labour should be disappointed but there are probably 1001 reasons why they didn’t win.
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Post by minionofmidas on Dec 24, 2022 10:41:25 GMT
Eh, 19% turnout is decent compared to Makerfield...  |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Dec 24, 2022 11:05:31 GMT
Eh, 19% turnout is decent compared to Makerfield... It has now been confirmed that most of the postal votes cast were undelivered there. So that "record" needs an asterisk. |
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Post by minionofmidas on Dec 24, 2022 11:55:20 GMT
Eh, 19% turnout is decent compared to Makerfield... It has now been confirmed that most of the postal votes cast were undelivered there. So that "record" needs an asterisk. Well aware of all but the "now confirmed" bit, but I don't think anything like 3/4 of the vote is postal nowadays? More like half iirc? |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Dec 24, 2022 12:04:19 GMT
Btw, a curiosity of this electoral year in local byelections is that it started and ended with surprise defeats for Labour - despite a successful 2022 overall.
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