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Post by Ben Walker on Dec 22, 2022 23:31:10 GMT
Yep - other way round:  |
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Post by Robert Waller on Dec 22, 2022 23:33:05 GMT
Normanby (Redcar and Cleveland) council by-election result:
CON: 37.5% (+15.9)
LAB: 34.5% (+2.4)
IND (Richardson): 13.8% (+13.8)
IND (McInnes): 10.5% (+10.5)
LDEM: 3.7% (-12.9)
No UKIP (-29.8) as prev.
Votes cast: 1,036
C gain from Lab
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sirbenjamin
IFP
True fame is reading your name written in graffiti, but without the words 'is a wanker' after it.
Posts: 4,979 
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Post by sirbenjamin on Dec 23, 2022 0:00:03 GMT
Does Christmas not technically start on Saturday evening with the vigil services this year. As with every year, with the First Mass of Christmas (other services are available: "that would be an ecumenical matter"). I was simply pointing out that the Thursday of Christmas week would be next week, not this.
In this country most people do Christmas mainly during Advent, and stop doing Christmas as soon as Christmas actually arrives. Which is hopelessly wrongheaded.
Obviously my tree isn't going up until Christmas Eve.
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Post by andrewp on Dec 23, 2022 0:04:31 GMT
That’s a slightly unlikely result, I think I would have put the Conservatives as the 3rd or 4th most likely winner out of 5.
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maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,299
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Post by maxque on Dec 23, 2022 0:59:44 GMT
Fits with the trend of last weeks. One (and only one) very good result for the Conservatives.
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Post by Arthur Figgis on Dec 23, 2022 1:06:10 GMT
As with every year, with the First Mass of Christmas (other services are available: "that would be an ecumenical matter"). I was simply pointing out that the Thursday of Christmas week would be next week, not this. In this country most people do Christmas mainly during Advent, and stop doing Christmas as soon as Christmas actually arrives. Which is hopelessly wrongheaded.
Obviously my tree isn't going up until Christmas Eve.
When did your Festivus pole go up? |
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Post by casualobserver on Dec 23, 2022 3:12:18 GMT
There are too many of these 'unexpected' Conservative by-election gains or good performances to just ignore them as 'one offs'. In some cases, such as this one, there may be a particularly good local candidate and local campaign. In others, such as South Cambridgeshire, there may be a local issue to exploit. But with the Conservatives in the 20s in the national opinion polls, 20% to 30% behind Labour, such local factors shouldn't be enough to explain the several 'surprise' Conservative results we've seen in the last few months.
I'm not suggesting that the national polls are wrong. But I think that the national poll numbers hide the shallowness of the support given to Labour by many who say to the pollsters that they'd vote Labour if there were a General Election tomorrow. And I wonder if we are seeing a resurgence of the 'shy tory' pollster phenomenon? Let's be honest, my Party's supporters have been given, this year and previously, no end of national political events to be shy about!
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Post by batman on Dec 23, 2022 6:15:47 GMT
The "shy Tory" effect is factored in by all pollsters anyway and has never gone away. I'd be very wary of drawing any national conclusions from a by-election held on the 22nd December where the winner achieved fewer than 400 votes. Of course this is a better result for the Tories than anyone here appears to have expected, and there are limits to the enthusiasm many voters have for Labour, but when you've had 5 polls during the week, and the average Labour lead is something in the region of 24% in them, I wouldn't be getting too hopeful.
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Post by yellowperil on Dec 23, 2022 7:20:37 GMT
Wow , I thought that was a nailed-on Labour win, when I did my summary of the results since May one week early saying there is one more result to come but that isn't going to change anything!Has anybody any idea about local circumstances to produce that result?
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Dec 23, 2022 8:16:02 GMT
There is limited enthusiasm for all parties. All parties support is shallow amongst a substansial proportion of the elctorate.
With people like me General and local elections are treated completely differently, they are not the same kettles of fish.
The percentage chance of me voting for the Conservatives at the next General Election is 0%. Honestly given historical candidates in Sheffield Hallam I'd say the chances of parties getting my vote next time are approximately, Reform 60%, Labour 30%, Liberal Democrats 10%, Green 0%, Conservatives 0% (I voted Independent last time)
Local Elections, having voted Conervative last time. There usually isn't a Reform candidate and I don't blame 'local' Conservatives for the National Government, I'd currently say the chances of parties getting my vote next time are approximately, Labour 50%, Conservatives 40%, Liberal Democrats 10%, Green 0%.
General and Local Elections votes are influenced by very different things. The above are influenced by the fact I live in Sheffield. If I lived in Scotland, Liverpool or London they might not necessarily be the same.
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Post by John Chanin on Dec 23, 2022 9:07:00 GMT
The good Conservative results at local elections are mostly coming in urban seats in the north, where there was a large UKIP/Brexit vote in the past. Labour are often blamed for the state of local services, and there is a considerable well of antagonism. In Cleveland remember you have a Conservative mayor. Even where labour are winning local by-elections swings are consistently small. (I'm ignoring places where Liberal Democrats are a factor).
I can agree that this will transfer to some extent to a General Election, but these are local elections, and the local political climate matters, much more than when people are thinking about a national government.
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Post by La Fontaine on Dec 23, 2022 9:10:52 GMT
Wow , I thought that was a nailed-on Labour win, when I did my summary of the results since May one week early saying there is one more result to come but that isn't going to change anything!Has anybody any idea about local circumstances to produce that result? I am no longer in touch enough to know about local factors. I do know Labour appealed repeatedly for help from the regional membership. On the face of it, it's quite a shock. I hope it doesn't mean Mr Clarke is safe. |
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Post by batman on Dec 23, 2022 9:14:10 GMT
It would take a considerable swing to unseat Simon Clarke, although all current polls are predicting (perhaps strictly speaking "strongly suggesting") that that would happen. It's the 3rd-safest Tory seat in the North-East after Berwick-on-Tweed & Hexham (neither of which has ever been won by Labour)
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Post by La Fontaine on Dec 23, 2022 9:17:40 GMT
On checking, it's just over the boundary in Redcar, but still.........
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ricmk
Lib Dem
Posts: 2,615
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Post by ricmk on Dec 23, 2022 9:28:36 GMT
I’m not sure I believe this myself, but looking for facts to fit the evidence.
From twitter it seems that a major Labour campaign theme was that the By-election wasn’t wanted and that it was Jacob Young and the Tories forcing people to vote just before Christmas. That may have backfired: the previous incumbent died so it’s hardly frivolous, telling people they shouldn’t vote can wind up the opposition and depress your own supporters, and no one except nerds looks at things in terms of six month rules especially in a hung council. So maybe the Labour campaign shot themselves i the foot on this?
Exhibit A:
Exhibit B:
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Post by jamesdoyle on Dec 23, 2022 9:59:31 GMT
GWBWI
Con +55
Lab -4
LDm -13
ASV
Con +0.9
Lab -0.1
LDm -0.2
I'll do a chart showing the last few months later on today.
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Post by rockefeller on Dec 23, 2022 10:56:23 GMT
Normanby (Redcar and Cleveland) council by-election result: CON: 37.5% (+15.9) LAB: 34.5% (+2.4) IND (Richardson): 13.8% (+13.8) IND (McInnes): 10.5% (+10.5) LDEM: 3.7% (-12.9) No UKIP (-29.8) as prev. Votes cast: 1,036 C gain from Lab Houchen effect? |
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carlton43
Reform Party
Posts: 50,887
Member is Online
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Post by carlton43 on Dec 23, 2022 11:05:25 GMT
There is limited enthusiasm for all parties. All parties support is shallow amongst a substansial proportion of the elctorate.
With people like me General and local elections are treated completely differently, they are not the same kettles of fish.
The percentage chance of me voting for the Conservatives at the next General Election is 0%. Honestly given historical candidates in Sheffield Hallam I'd say the chances of parties getting my vote next time are approximately, Reform 60%, Labour 30%, Liberal Democrats 10%, Green 0%, Conservatives 0% (I voted Independent last time)
Local Elections, having voted Conervative last time. There usually isn't a Reform candidate and I don't blame 'local' Conservatives for the National Government, I'd currently say the chances of parties getting my vote next time are approximately, Labour 50%, Conservatives 40%, Liberal Democrats 10%, Green 0%.
General and Local Elections votes are influenced by very different things. The above are influenced by the fact I live in Sheffield. If I lived in Scotland, Liverpool or London they might not necessarily be the same.
Interesting post from an adjacent constituency. My present intentions are Reform 60% Labour 40% (I like Louise Haigh) all other candidates 0%. |
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jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 7,053
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Post by jamie on Dec 23, 2022 11:19:19 GMT
Redcar and Cleveland was already a pretty dire Labour performance in 2019, to be losing ‘safe’ seats to the Conservatives when Labour are supposedly massively ahead nationally is just embarrassing…
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Dec 23, 2022 11:26:01 GMT
I’m not sure I believe this myself, but looking for facts to fit the evidence. From twitter it seems that a major Labour campaign theme was that the By-election wasn’t wanted and that it was Jacob Young and the Tories forcing people to vote just before Christmas. That may have backfired: the previous incumbent died so it’s hardly frivolous, telling people they shouldn’t vote can wind up the opposition and depress your own supporters, and no one except nerds looks at things in terms of six month rules especially in a hung council. So maybe the Labour campaign shot themselves i the foot on this? Exhibit A: Exhibit B: Also comes across as extraordinarily Petty. I bet this was an idea from some bright spark at regional rather than anyone locally who actually campaigns |
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