nelson
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Post by nelson on Dec 7, 2022 17:53:48 GMT
The election is tomorrow and the last poll from yesterday has the SocLibs in Progress as kingmakers, with the choice of backing either a centre-left coalition with Republic and EP (2015-19 redux) or a grand coalition with EP and the Union Party, they'll likely prefer the latter but it's not a given.
Centre-left:
Equality Party 25.9 (9)
Republic 19.8 (7)
Centre-right:
People's Party 19.8 (7)
Union Party 18.3 (6)
Progress 7.8 (2)
Centre 6.2 (2)
Self-Government 2.2 (0)
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ilerda
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Post by ilerda on Dec 8, 2022 11:19:12 GMT
Has there been much discussion in the Faroe Islands about what their approach to the EU would be should they gain their full independence?
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Dec 8, 2022 11:58:08 GMT
Has there been much discussion in the Faroe Islands about what their approach to the EU would be should they gain their full independence? No, the "formal independence" issue is quite low on the agenda at the moment and has been for years. The aftermath of the economic boom that's over now, but led to growing inequality, the cost of living crisis, housing, how to handle the effects of mass tourism and a growing urban/rural divide and secularization leading to social issues like gay rights and abortion becoming more prominent, and as usual: tunnels and other infrastructure matters, are all higher on the agenda, as is green energy and regulation of fish farming. It has been part of Republic's problem (their "if not now, then when?" approach to independence during the boom years was an abject failure, since they were up against a widespread "don't rock the boat while things are going great" sentiment). The actual difference between extensive (and gradually expanding) autonomy within the Danish realm and formal sovereignty in a free association arrangement is too small to really excite enough people (or rather, enough of the swing voters). The unionists have become devolution max proponents and most of the separatists have become free association proponents and it has all mellowed (which is the main reason Self-Government with their traditional moderate separatist position have become superfluous). Separatist vs. unionist is the Faroese version of FF vs FG in Ireland (minus the civil war legacy ofc) it's a family legacy and identity matter, but not nearly as important as it used to be. I guess they'd opt for an Icelandic EEA model if they got formal independence, but their central administration would be a bit too small to fully tackle all the legal demands that would entail. Right now they have access to most of the benefits from the EU through Danish citizenship (and the Danish krone being tied to the Euro), without most of the hassle. Though they could (and most likely would) retain a currency union with Denmark post-independence, there is no basis for a separate Faroese currency and no appetite for using the Euro directly (and ofc not the extremely volatile Icelandic kroná, that's a non-starter). |
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Dec 8, 2022 12:25:06 GMT
A bit of practicalities and trivia. The polls opened 10 am and will close at 8 pm (no difference between local and UK time).
39,017 have the right to vote, up 1,196 from last time mainly because the 589 who are studying abroad can now vote but some population growth as well, there are 57 polling stations by far the biggest being the sports hall in Tórshavn with 13,182 registered voters and the smallest is Hattarvík on Fugloy in the far NE corner of the archipelago with ten voters (the easternmost settlement on the islands).
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Dec 8, 2022 12:45:34 GMT
The election is tomorrow and the last poll from yesterday has the SocLibs in Progress as kingmakers, with the choice of backing either a centre-left coalition with Republic and EP (2015-19 redux) or a grand coalition with EP and the Union Party, they'll likely prefer the latter but it's not a given. Centre-left: Equality Party 25.9 (9) Republic 19.8 (7) Centre-right: People's Party 19.8 (7) Union Party 18.3 (6) Progress 7.8 (2) Centre 6.2 (2) Self-Government 2.2 (0) That's a Gallup poll, the last Spyr.fo poll shows a different picture with the People's Party gaining and lot (only losing 1.4 point from 2019) and keeping all of their eight seats from last time, while the Union Party loses big. It also has Self-Government close to the threshold. So we'll see which pollster gets closest. Equality Party 26.8 (9) People's Party 23.2 (8) Republic 17.9 (6) Union Party 15.8 (5) Progress 7.0 (3) Centre 6.5 (2) Self-Government 2.8 (0) Both the likely coalitions still have a majority in this one, and Progress would still be kingmakers. But if Progress doesn't get the third seat the "broad coalition" may not be possible. EP, Republic, Progress = 18 EP, UP, Progress = 17 |
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Dec 8, 2022 13:20:15 GMT
That's a Gallup poll, the last Spyr.fo poll shows a different picture with the People's Party gaining and lot (only losing 1.4 point from 2019) and keeping all of their eight seats from last time, while the Union Party loses big. It also has Self-Government close to the threshold. So we'll see which pollster gets closest. If there is a late movement to People's from Union it'll mainly be due to centre-right voters not wanting a SocDem Premier after all as the Union Party has more or less committed to a broad government. The initial stabilization of the People's Party was mainly due to fence-sitters deciding to return to the party after the initial chaos with the chairman stepping down and multiple defections had ended, but if the final Spyr.fo poll is correct they'll also have won back voters who had left them earlier in the term and at least some usual UP voters. |
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Dec 8, 2022 15:47:55 GMT
at 2 pm turnout was substantially lover than in 2019 at the three biggest polling stations, notably quite a lot in Klaksvík, which is a People's Party stronghold, so that may be significant, unless people are just voting late.
Tórshavn
29.9% had voted at 2 pm vs. 31.9% in 2019
Klaksvík
21.8% had voted at 2 pm today vs. 26.8% at 2 pm in 2019
Runavík
27.0% had voted at 2 pm vs. 36.1% in 2019
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Dec 8, 2022 20:19:13 GMT
Exit poll (seats only).
Equality 8 (+1)
People's 7 (-1)
Republic 7 (+1)
Union 6 (-1)
Progress 3 (+1)
Centre 2 (nc)
Self-Government (-1)
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Dec 8, 2022 20:23:33 GMT
A bit of practicalities and trivia. The polls opened 10 am and will close at 8 pm (no difference between local and UK time). 39,017 have the right to vote, up 1,196 from last time mainly because the 589 who are studying abroad can now vote but some population growth as well, there are 57 polling stations by far the biggest being the sports hall in Tórshavn with 13,182 registered voters and the smallest is Hattarvík on Fugloy in the far NE corner of the archipelago with ten voters (the easternmost settlement on the islands). Hattarvík counted, eight of ten voted, four for People's, a few of the other small places counted as well, but they're very unrepresentative. |
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Dec 8, 2022 20:25:07 GMT
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Dec 8, 2022 20:29:44 GMT
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Dec 8, 2022 20:33:48 GMT
Exit poll (seats only). Equality 8 (+1) People's 7 (-1) Republic 7 (+1) Union 6 (-1) Progress 3 (+1) Centre 2 (nc) Self-Government (-1) Here are the percentages: Equality 25.2 People's 20.9 Republic 19.5 Union 17.2 Progress 8.3 Centre 6.3 Self-Government 2.6 |
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Dec 8, 2022 20:35:50 GMT
138 votes, the People's Party at 42%.  |
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Dec 8, 2022 20:45:21 GMT
They've now counted a third of he polling stations, but only 1.9% of the votes. They really got some tiny ones. Islets and hamlets.
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Post by casualobserver on Dec 8, 2022 21:06:28 GMT
This is hilarious at the count. |
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Dec 8, 2022 21:08:52 GMT
Half the polling stations and 6.8% counted, People's are the big losers down to 15.9% from 22% last time in these small places, so if they only lose one seat it'll be due to increased support in the towns, Self-Government also generally doing badly everywhere. Republic up 3.5 points.
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Dec 8, 2022 21:32:36 GMT
With two-thirds of the polling stations and 16% counted People's lose 7.0 points and Self-Government 0.3, everyone else gains, EP the most at 2.0 and Progress 1.8. Doesn't look like the exit poll will hold when they lose so much in rural areas.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 8, 2022 21:33:47 GMT
This is all I want to watch now for the rest of the week. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 8, 2022 21:36:36 GMT
Television cameras getting this close to ballot papers in the UK would be unthinkable.  [/url] |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 8, 2022 21:40:47 GMT
"We're only able to film this corner of my wife's friend's living room."  [/url |
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