Omnisis

[mattbewilson]

I don't understand politics anymore. This is a budget that the markets approved. Pensions largely protected. Minimum wage is going up. Money for the NHS. Extension to windfall. Extension to energy guarantee. Yet Hunt is less popular than Osborne taxing Greggs pasties

[Adam in Stroud]

Nov 18, 2022 22:58:00 GMT mattbewilson said:

I don't understand politics anymore. This is a budget that the markets approved. Pensions largely protected. Minimum wage is going up. Money for the NHS. Extension to windfall. Extension to energy guarantee. Yet Hunt is less popular than Osborne taxing Greggs pasties

No-one understands anything, just accept it and you'll be happier.

Though I think in this case people are just generally pissed off for fairly obvious reasons and Hunt is just the metaphorical cat that gets kicked.

The bit I didn't understand was why most people weren't pissed off and looking for someone to kick after being locked up during Covid. I thought everybody would be grumpy as hell by about December 2020. Maybe there's a bit of delayed effect in the current mood but I don't think so.

[timmullen1]

Nov 18, 2022 22:58:00 GMT mattbewilson said:

I don't understand politics anymore. This is a budget that the markets approved. Pensions largely protected. Minimum wage is going up. Money for the NHS. Extension to windfall. Extension to energy guarantee. Yet Hunt is less popular than Osborne taxing Greggs pasties

People are still going to be worse off though; what Hunt giveth with one hand he takes away with the other: people are no longer as shielded against energy price rises as the extension to the energy guarantee is reduced, there’s nothing to suggest petrol and diesel will drop significantly, the weekly grocery bill is going up (if you can actually get even some basic items now), people in the private rented sector are getting no protection against rent increases as Housing Benefit was frozen, and for all the extra money allegedly going to the NHS he’s done nothing (again) to address the crisis in the care sector, particularly domiciliary care - I said goodbye to yet another of my care team tonight who can get more money, work fixed hours, and leave her car at home working in a card shop on Trentham Estate.

[batman]

the estimates are of a 7% cut in living standards. I'm surprised that you're surprised that it's very unpopular.

[mattbewilson]

This is probably that moment you know you're in a bubble

[mattbewilson]

The cost living drop just seems inevitable whatever was said in the autumn statement

[The Bishop]

Nov 19, 2022 9:47:23 GMT mattbewilson said:

The cost living drop just seems inevitable whatever was said in the autumn statement

But as our side will recall from 2008 and after, the government in power tends to get the blame for such things regardless of how culpable they actually are for it.

(and its maybe not totally blinkered partisanship to say the Tories are more responsible for this one than Labour were then)

[batman]

you could argue that it isn't the same Tories who are principally responsible, but they are still Tory MPs nonetheless. I was canvassing in the constituency of one of the MPs concerned this morning.

[aargauer]

Nov 18, 2022 22:58:00 GMT mattbewilson said:

I don't understand politics anymore. This is a budget that the markets approved. Pensions largely protected. Minimum wage is going up. Money for the NHS. Extension to windfall. Extension to energy guarantee. Yet Hunt is less popular than Osborne taxing Greggs pasties

Did you expect core Conservatives to support a labour budget.

No wonder Rachel Reeves had problems attacking it, she probably agreed with 90% of it!

[mattbewilson]

Nov 19, 2022 17:12:31 GMT aargauer said:

Nov 18, 2022 22:58:00 GMT mattbewilson said:

I don't understand politics anymore. This is a budget that the markets approved. Pensions largely protected. Minimum wage is going up. Money for the NHS. Extension to windfall. Extension to energy guarantee. Yet Hunt is less popular than Osborne taxing Greggs pasties

Did you expect core Conservatives to support a labour budget.

No wonder Rachel Reeves had problems attacking it, she probably agreed with 90% of it!

I mean is that such a bad thing, surely Reeves is the most trusted Labour politician amongst Tory voters?

[aargauer]

Nov 19, 2022 17:24:40 GMT mattbewilson said:

Nov 19, 2022 17:12:31 GMT aargauer said:

Did you expect core Conservatives to support a labour budget.

No wonder Rachel Reeves had problems attacking it, she probably agreed with 90% of it!

I mean is that such a bad thing, surely Reeves is the most trusted Labour politician amongst Tory voters?

Its a bad thing for democracy. We have three parties essentially fighting over the same economic turf.

[nodealbrexiteer]

Nov 19, 2022 17:29:04 GMT aargauer said:

Nov 19, 2022 17:24:40 GMT mattbewilson said:

I mean is that such a bad thing, surely Reeves is the most trusted Labour politician amongst Tory voters?

Its a bad thing for democracy. We have three parties essentially fighting over the same economic turf.

Is that you Merseymike ?

[Merseymike]

mattbewilson and myself agree on much but he's far more loyal to Labour than I am.

aargauer is similarly disillusioned with his own party.

[mattbewilson]

Nov 19, 2022 17:29:04 GMT aargauer said:

Nov 19, 2022 17:24:40 GMT mattbewilson said:

I mean is that such a bad thing, surely Reeves is the most trusted Labour politician amongst Tory voters?

Its a bad thing for democracy. We have three parties essentially fighting over the same economic turf.

while I agree political parties seem to like the brag that theyre on the oppositions 'lawn'

[matureleft]

Truss/Kwarteng forced Hunt into an unenviable position. There’s no doubt that this had to be a budget that reassured markets. Without their foray there’d have been less demand for a fiscally tight package. They did nobody who had more radical ideas (left or right) any favours at all.

That said, even within the tight scrutiny this budget would inevitably have, there is scope for some choice. Hunt has got away with pushing most of the spending cuts into the future and history tells us that that means many of them won’t happen. That suggests that provided there’s coherence, a convincing narrative and some forecasts to back these up there’s some room for ideas. Ideas that would increase growth are particularly useful.

Personally I’ve always doubted that marginal differences in personal taxation make a lot of difference to entrepreneurial activity so I’d probably focus on three areas. The first is easing business growth through better migration policies and reducing export barriers. The second is by increasing public sector investment. The third is incentivising private sector investment including loosening slightly controls on what insurance companies can invest in - that exercise has been clumsily handled.

As to popularity clearly living standards will fall quite sharply on top of a pretty modest performance over the dozen years. I sense that the Truss/Kwarteng chaos probably damaged the competence element of the Tory brand beyond immediate repair and that part of the public reaction reflects that. Osborne managed some budgets that delivered some unpleasant stuff without a particularly adverse response because he could claim he was doing necessary things to handle a “Labour mess”. Labour has taken ages to recover a right to be heard on the economy. It’s possible the Tories will face a similar blanking.

[andrewp]

[The Bishop]

Nothing from this pollster yesterday?

[wysall]

Dec 3, 2022 11:30:50 GMT The Bishop said:

Nothing from this pollster yesterday?

[andrewp]

[The Bishop]

Last week's poll - Lab 47 (down 1) Con 26 (down 4) LibDems 9 Greens 6 Reform 6 (up 2) SNP 5 (up 2)