carlton43
Reform Party
Posts: 50,887 
Member is Online
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Post by carlton43 on Oct 20, 2022 23:24:08 GMT
Portchester East (Fareham) council by-election result: CON: 37.6% (+3.0) LDEM: 36.6% (-14.2) LAB: 14.9% (+4.5) FIG: 10.8% (+10.8) Votes cast: 2,543 Conservative GAIN from Liberal Democrat. After this week that is glorious. The world has indeed gone insane. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Oct 20, 2022 23:26:30 GMT
Portchester East (Fareham) council by-election result: CON: 37.6% (+3.0) LDEM: 36.6% (-14.2) LAB: 14.9% (+4.5) FIG: 10.8% (+10.8) Votes cast: 2,543 Conservative GAIN from Liberal Democrat. After this week that is glorious. The world has indeed gone insane. An endorsement of Suella Braverman and a repudiation of her Lib Dem opponent |
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Post by yellowperil on Oct 20, 2022 23:29:46 GMT
and not the easiest of ones- very rural, crowded field. I had a very pleasant afternoon driving round Tillingbourne ward yesterday. (If anyone doesn't know it, try the google images for Shere, for example) Thought the LD would win, candidate lives in the centre of the ward and well known in Shere community groups. But not sure about how strong the Greenbelt challenge would be, they did well in the county ward last year and candidate's farm on the edge of the ward ... I think it's important that the Green candidate was not local but from Guildford town. Interesting -I thought the Indy might do better but the the Green candidate probably confused the situation a bit. I hoped for a good Lib Dem showing here but didn't dare go for it in such a crowded field. Yes I know both Shere and Abinger Hammer pretty well but not in the last few years. |
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Post by timrollpickering on Oct 20, 2022 23:45:30 GMT
Monmouthshire, Devauden is reported as a C hold, awaiting figures. EDIT: C 268 Lab 210 Ind 119 Grn 41 LD 23 One for the "former parliamentarian restands and gets a comical result from their old constituents" stakes? |
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Post by phil156 on Oct 20, 2022 23:45:49 GMT
Congratulations on Broadlands for coming last they only have two polling booths too
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,426
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Post by iain on Oct 20, 2022 23:51:55 GMT
It’s a Labour gain:
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maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,299
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Post by maxque on Oct 20, 2022 23:53:21 GMT
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maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,299
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Post by maxque on Oct 20, 2022 23:57:16 GMT
Congratulations on Broadlands for coming last they only have two polling booths too They were also running a parish poll for that ward (it ended Lab 860, Con 581, LD 196 on the parish side). |
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Post by andrewp on Oct 21, 2022 0:00:59 GMT
Updated after tonight. As it currently stands the Conservative Local Election results under Truss have been
15 Con defences which have resulted in 6 Holds and 9 losses. 4 Losses to Lab, 3 losses to the Greens, 1 to the Lib Dems and 1 loss to an Independent
5 Con gains, 3 from Lab, 1 from a Green and 1 from the Lib Dems
So a net of 4 losses. On The first Thursday of her tenure on 8th September they lost 4 seats, so it’s been a net break even in the six weeks since then.
1 defence to go next week ( if she is still PM next Thursday)
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Post by middleenglander on Oct 21, 2022 0:03:28 GMT
Broadland: Thorpe St Andrew North West - Labour gain from Conservative| Party | 2022 votes | 2022 share | since 2019 "top" | since 2019 "average" | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average2 | | Labour | 860 | 51.8% | +22.8% | +21.7% | +22.5% | +23.9% | | Conservative | 635 | 38.3% | -17.9% | -16.4% | -4.9% | -4.6% | | Liberal Democrat | 165 | 9.9% | -4.9% | -5.4% | = | +0.2% | | UKIP |
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| -17.7% | -19.4% | | Total votes | 1,660 |
| 79% | 83% | 34% | 37% |
Swing: Conservative to Labour 20¼% / 19% since 2019 and 13¾% / 14¼% since 2015 Council now: 30 Conservative, 12 Liberal Democrat, 3 Labour, 2 Green Fareham: Porchester East - Conservative gain from Liberal Democrat| Party | 2022 B votes | 2022 B share | since 2022 "top" | since 2022 "average" | since 2021 | since 2018 "top" | since 2018 "average" | | Conservative | 957 | 37.6% | +3.0% | +3.0% | -2.5% | +8.2% | +9.4% | | Liberal Democrat | 932 | 36.6% | -14.2% | -13.9% | -7.8% | -23.8% | -24.4% | | Labour | 379 | 14.9% | +4.5% | +4.4% | +3.5% | +4.7% | +4.2% | | Fareham Independent | 275 | 10.8% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Independent |
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| -4.2% | -4.3% | -4.1% |
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| | Total votes | 2,543 |
| 73% | 76% | 72% | 76% | 82% |
Swing: Liberal Democrat to Conservative 8½% since May, 2¾% since 2021 and 16% / 17% since 2018 Council now: 26 Conservative, 4 Liberal Democrat, 1 Independent Guildford: Tillingbourne - Liberal Democrat gain from Conservativevotes something like | Party | 2022 votes | 2022 share | since 2019 "top" | since 2019 "average" | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | | Liberal Democrat | 636 | 46.5% | +16.3% | +15.7% | +33.8% | +34.3% | | Conservative | 293 | 21.4% | -15.2% | -13.9% | -33.5% | -32.2% | | Residents for Guildford & Villages | 185 | 13.5% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Green | 168 | 12.3% | -20.8% | -21.5% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Labour | 85 | 6.2% | from nowhere | from nowhere | -2.5% | -2.4% | | Guildford Green Belt Group |
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| -23.7% | -25.5% | | Total votes | 1,367 |
| 61% | 62% | 36% | 39% |
Swing: Conservative to Liberal Democrat 15¾% / 14½% since 2019 and, if meaningful, 33½% since 2015 Council now: 17 Liberal Democrat, 15 Residents for Guildford & Villages, 8 Conservative, 4 Guildford Green Belt Group, 2 Labour, 1 Green, 1 Independent Monmouthshire: Devauden - Conservative hold | Party | 2022 B votes | 2022 B share | since 2022 | since 2017 | since 2012 | | Conservative | 268 | 40.5% | -8.8% | -29.0% | -29.0% | | Labour | 210 | 31.8% | +1.1% | +1.3% | Row 3 column 6 | | Independent | 119 | 18.0% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Green | 41 | 6.2% | -4.0% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Liberal Democrat | 23 | 3.5% | -6.3% | from nowhere | -27.0% | | Total votes | 661 |
| 102% | 115% | 131% |
Swing: Labour to Conservative 5% since May and, if meaningful, 15% since 2017 Council now: 22 Labour, 18 Conservative, 5 Independent Group St Helens: Moss Bank - Labour hold | Party | 2022 B votes | 2022 B share | since 2022 "top" | since 2022 "average" |
| since 2021 * | since 2019 * | | Labour | 656 | 50.3% | -1.7% | -0.7% |
| +1.0% | +9.8% | | Liberal Democrat | 571 | 43.8% | +27.1% | +27.2% |
| +33.4% | +29.9% | | Conservative | 78 | 6.0% | -11.3% | -11.9% |
| -21.3% | -4.9% | | Independent |
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| -14.1% | -14.6% |
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| -6.1% | | Green |
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| -13.1% | -12.1% | | UKIP |
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| -16.5% | | Total votes | 1,305 |
| 44% | 45% | | 56% | 54% |
* minor boundary changes Swing: Labour to Liberal Democrat 14½% / 14% since May and, if meaningful, 16% since 2021 and 10% since 2019 Council now: 29 Labour, 6 Green, 4 Liberal Democrat, 3 The Independents, 2 Conservative, 2 Billinge & Seneley Group, 2 Newton & Willows Independent
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Post by phil156 on Oct 21, 2022 0:20:51 GMT
BROADLANDS RESULT - Thorpe St Andrew North West
Lab gain from Con
Lab 860,
Con 635
LD 165
Goodnight everyone
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Post by John Chanin on Oct 21, 2022 7:02:58 GMT
This is the win I have been waiting to see, in a Conservative seat of significant size where there is local Labour organization. I have been unconvinced to date whether the polls actually reflect voting behaviour. This one does. |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Oct 21, 2022 7:14:42 GMT
Tillingbourne was certainly one of the accidental Green gains in 2019. IIRC the councillor has said that she was only persuaded to stand as she was told she wouldn't win, so I'm not at all surprised we didn't take the seat. I thought the localists might do a bit better, but the local Lib Dem machine is obviously still strong.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Oct 21, 2022 8:04:29 GMT
This is the win I have been waiting to see, in a Conservative seat of significant size where there is local Labour organization. I have been unconvinced to date whether the polls actually reflect voting behaviour. This one does. What do you mean by significant size? |
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Oct 21, 2022 8:29:31 GMT
Devauden (Monmouthshire) council by-election result: CON: 40.5% (-8.8) LAB: 31.8% (+1.1) IND: 18.0% (+18.0) GRN: 6.2% (-4.0) LDEM: 3.5% (-6.3) Votes cast: 661 CON Hold This makes Monmouth the first council in Wales to have more female councillors than male councillors. |
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Post by finsobruce on Oct 21, 2022 8:30:57 GMT
Portchester East (Fareham) council by-election result: CON: 37.6% (+3.0) LDEM: 36.6% (-14.2) LAB: 14.9% (+4.5) FIG: 10.8% (+10.8) Votes cast: 2,543 Conservative GAIN from Liberal Democrat. A sort of reversal of those results where you get a Lib Dem gain and the small Labour/others vote is squashed.
I suspect the residents group don't give a fig about the result.
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Clark
Forum Regular
Posts: 744
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Post by Clark on Oct 21, 2022 8:41:59 GMT
Although Election Calculus (yeah, I know) have Labour gaining Monmouth, they don't have them carrying the Devauden ward in doing so.
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Post by John Chanin on Oct 21, 2022 8:50:57 GMT
This is the win I have been waiting to see, in a Conservative seat of significant size where there is local Labour organization. I have been unconvinced to date whether the polls actually reflect voting behaviour. This one does. What do you mean by significant size? I mean not a piddling single member DC ward with a population of 1500, but a large multi-member ward with a population of c5000 or more. The smaller the ward, the more personal and local factors come into play. |
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Post by finsobruce on Oct 21, 2022 8:52:30 GMT
What do you mean by significant size? I mean not a piddling single member DC ward with a population of 1500, but a large multi-member ward with a population of c5000 or more. The smaller the ward, the more personal and local factors come into play. And also in a parliamentary seat which Labour are a long way off holding. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 21, 2022 9:25:51 GMT
Apart from Fareham, these results are much more what you would expect the Tories to get given current polling.
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