Local Council by-elections 13th October 2022

[maxque]

Lab hold in Edgeley and Cheadle Hulme
Lab 1172 (53.0%; -19.5)
LD 840 (38.0%; +32.1)
Grn 200 (9.0%; +0.5)

[iain]

Oct 13, 2022 23:21:57 GMT @europeanlefty said:

The LibDems in Gloucester did a number on us with one of their sodding bar charts again. This one showing the composition of the city council as though it's somehow relevant

The bar charts only work if you are comprehensively outworked.

[maxque]

Conservative gain in Leicester reported on Twitter.

Edit: apparently Labour finished 3rd, Greens 2nd.

[yellowperil]

Oct 13, 2022 23:23:34 GMT iain said:

Oct 13, 2022 23:21:57 GMT @europeanlefty said:

The LibDems in Gloucester did a number on us with one of their sodding bar charts again. This one showing the composition of the city council as though it's somehow relevant

The bar charts only work if you are comprehensively outworked.

I think the relative strengths of the two parties on the council is indeed relevant information- the difference between the official opposition and a fringe party with 3 seats says something about the ability of the respective parties to hold the Tories to account. If you think this is not relevant to the specific ward because in the past Labour has done more work there and the Lib Dems haven't targetted it , it ought to be possible for you to demonstrate your superiority on the ground. Clearly you couldn't, and next time the ward is fought presumably the bar chart will be rather different.

[peterl]

Okay, I get that the Green surge has split the anti-Tory vote, but presumably there must be some local factors leading to that kind of Tory surge in a city they have what one councillor.

[oldhamexile]

Oct 14, 2022 0:07:45 GMT peterl said:

Okay, I get that the Green surge has split the anti-Tory vote, but presumably there must be some local factors leading to that kind of Tory surge in a city they have what one councillor.

Those factors might include Labour having selected a supporter of India's Hindu-extremist government. This is a divided ward in a divided city. Labour is developing a tin ear re Muslim voters.

[timmullen1]

Oct 14, 2022 0:48:00 GMT oldhamexile said:

Oct 14, 2022 0:07:45 GMT peterl said:

Okay, I get that the Green surge has split the anti-Tory vote, but presumably there must be some local factors leading to that kind of Tory surge in a city they have what one councillor.

Those factors might include Labour having selected a supporter of India's Hindu-extremist government. This is a divided ward in a divided city. Labour is developing a tin ear re Muslim voters.

The British Electoral Survey seems to indicate that Labour’s tin ear is not towards Muslim voters (particularly those from Pakistani and Bangladeshi heritage) but with Indian Hindus: www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/nov/18/british-indian-voters-labour-diaspora-political

[rockefeller]

Grandad worked for Leicester Council from the 50s to the 80s - I wonder what North Evington was like back then.

Leicester East may move to the right next time. In 1997 Bradford West and Poplar & Canning Town swung to the Tories. 

[Pete Whitehead]

Oct 14, 2022 6:22:41 GMT rockefeller said:

Grandad worked for Leicester Council from the 50s to the 80s - I wonder what North Evington was like back then.

Leicester East may move to the right next time. In 1997 Bradford West and Poplar & Canning Town swung to the Tories. 

Bethnal Green & Bow

[andrewp]

More than most weeks, there are some pretty specific reasons in some of those results, but again I think it’s probably fair to say that these results aren’t reflective of the Conservatives being on 20% in the polls.

[arnieg]

How many pictures of Liz Truss were on the Tory leaflets in these campaigns?

[andrewp]

Waltham Abbey South West numbers confirmed as

Joseph Parsons, Conservative 260
Dave Plummer, Green 211

[towerhamlets]

Oct 14, 2022 2:05:53 GMT timmullen1 said:

Oct 14, 2022 0:48:00 GMT oldhamexile said:

Those factors might include Labour having selected a supporter of India's Hindu-extremist government. This is a divided ward in a divided city. Labour is developing a tin ear re Muslim voters.

The British Electoral Survey seems to indicate that Labour’s tin ear is not towards Muslim voters (particularly those from Pakistani and Bangladeshi heritage) but with Indian Hindus: www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/nov/18/british-indian-voters-labour-diaspora-political

Firstly, I'm not sure of the relevance of the linked article to this particular council by-election in Leicester. I'm not an expert on Leicester, but an online search of the candidate's name reveals that she hosted a party (that Keith Vaz attended) celebrating the BJP victory at the 2019 national election in India. Given the stated values of the Labour Party, I think it's incongruous in any case for supporters of right-wing Hindu nationalism to be standing as Labour candidates, but it's certainly inadvisable to nominate an avowed Hindu nationalist considering the recent communal issues in Leicester.

Secondly, the article notes that Labour's performance among young voters of Indian descent is very strong, just as it is among young voters generally. A shift in the preferences of older Indian voters, who are more interested in Indian political issues than are their children, has a lot to do with the explosion of Hindu nationalism in the last decade and the ways that Tories have made an effort to use this to win over the Hindu vote. (That's not to say that this doesn't happen with Labour sometimes, too—witness this very candidate in Leicester—but it's less common because, as we've seen here, adopting Hindu nationalism as a strategy has the potential to seriously alienate other portions of the core Labour vote.)

In any case, from a simple class standpoint, we would expect Hindus to be more Conservative than other Indians. Muslim immigrants have tended to be poorer, while Sikhs are as natural a constituency for a socialist party as you can find in any ethnoreligious group in the world (even if this is not quite as true in Britain, with its significant Ramgarhia population, as in Canada, whose Sikhs are practically all Jat). A larger proportion of Hindus are middle class, which would affect their political leanings regardless of any perceived ineptitude on the part of the Labour Party.

[timmullen1]

Oct 14, 2022 8:02:26 GMT towerhamlets said:

Oct 14, 2022 2:05:53 GMT timmullen1 said:

The British Electoral Survey seems to indicate that Labour’s tin ear is not towards Muslim voters (particularly those from Pakistani and Bangladeshi heritage) but with Indian Hindus: www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/nov/18/british-indian-voters-labour-diaspora-political

Firstly, I'm not sure of the relevance of the linked article to this particular council by-election in Leicester. I'm not an expert on Leicester, but an online search of the candidate's name reveals that she hosted a party (that Keith Vaz attended) celebrating the BJP victory at the 2019 national election in India. Given the stated values of the Labour Party, I think it's incongruous in any case for supporters of right-wing Hindu nationalism to be standing as Labour candidates, but it's certainly inadvisable to nominate an avowed Hindu nationalist considering the recent communal issues in Leicester.

Secondly, the article notes that Labour's performance among young voters of Indian descent is very strong, just as it is among young voters generally. A shift in the preferences of older Indian voters, who are more interested in Indian political issues than are their children, has a lot to do with the explosion of Hindu nationalism in the last decade and the ways that Tories have made an effort to use this to win over the Hindu vote. (That's not to say that this doesn't happen with Labour sometimes, too—witness this very candidate in Leicester—but it's less common because, as we've seen here, adopting Hindu nationalism as a strategy has the potential to seriously alienate other portions of the core Labour vote.)

In any case, from a simple class standpoint, we would expect Hindus to be more Conservative than other Indians. Muslim immigrants have tended to be poorer, while Sikhs are as natural a constituency for a socialist party as you can find in any ethnoreligious group in the world (even if this is not quite as true in Britain, with its significant Ramgarhia population, as in Canada, whose Sikhs are practically all Jat). A larger proportion of Hindus are middle class, which would affect their political leanings regardless of any perceived ineptitude on the part of the Labour Party.

The point wasn’t meant to be Leicester specific, although the general drift towards the Conservatives amongst Indian Hindus identified by the BES was probably a factor in Leicester, but was, as I actually typed, rebutting the allegation that Labour had a “tin ear” towards Muslim voters, when the BES found little slippage in support for the Party particularly amongst Pakistani and Bangladeshi Muslim voters.

[jamesdoyle]

GWBWI

Con +65
Grn +50
LDm +48
Lab +5

Adjusted Seat Value

Con +1.1
Grn +0.8
LDm +0.8
Lab +0.1

Cons: The Epping Forest result is a bit of a headliner, but in the round it's a win in a very safe Con ward that was serendipitously won by the Green on one occasion, so there's not much value for the Cons there. All the positive value for them comes from Leicester, with a very small negative in Gloucester.
Lab: A bad loss in Leicetster, but offset by reasonable result in Hartlepool and a mildly good one in Stockport.
LDm: pretty positive scores in Stockport and Gloucester/
Grn: Although they lost the Epping Forest seat, because of the same factors that downplay the Con win they get a somewhat positive score, about the same as the score in Leicester.

[yellowperil]

Okay , there were special factors in several of last night's by-election results, but across the board that was an appallingly bad night for Labour, almost beyond belief given the national opinion polls. You can't help wondering whether the national state of play induced complacency?

Epping Forest- no candidate. Vote share therefore lost 19.8%.
Gloucester- from second place and expected gain down to third. Vote share lost 2.7%
Hartlepool - first place held, as was vote share (but only +0.1%)
Leicester- from first placeto third, vote share lost 26.7%
Stockport- first place held, but vote share lost 18.8%

So Hartlepool was as good as it gets! Who'd have thought it.

[rockefeller]

By-election votes in Leicester East since 2019

CON 8,450
LAB 7,216

[matureleft]

Oct 14, 2022 8:29:16 GMT yellowperil said:

Okay , there were special factors in several of last night's by-election results, but across the board that was an appallingly bad night for Labour, almost beyond belief given the national opinion polls. You can't help wondering whether the national state of play induced complacency?

Epping Forest- no candidate. Vote share therefore lost 19.8%.
Gloucester- from second place and expected gain down to third. Vote share lost 2.7%
Hartlepool - first place held, as was vote share (but only +0.1%)
Leicester- from first placeto third, vote share lost 26.7%
Stockport- first place held, but vote share lost 18.8%

So Hartlepool was as good as it gets! Who'd have thought it.

Fair. There are undeniably local circumstances - Leicester’s results show both how adept Labour must have been in the past in working with the grain of different communities, how fragile that grasp can be and how other parties can have the same skill. Stockport looks like a nasty local political dispute. Gloucester looks like a party that has failed to look after its campaigning ability through a long decline from local strength. 

But in 1995-7 when last Labour was at these levels in the polls these factors tended to matter little - a rising tide floated almost all boats. The Labour support is broad but pretty soft. That’s a great opportunity for us - people are prepared to listen to Labour who haven’t been so inclined for quite a while. But they’ve far from made up their minds. 

[batman]

Oct 14, 2022 7:05:03 GMT andrewp said:

More than most weeks, there are some pretty specific reasons in some of those results, but again I think it’s probably fair to say that these results aren’t reflective of the Conservatives being on 20% in the polls.

of course, that's true. But local elections are local elections, and voters in a by-election are generally aware that they are not being presented with a choice between Keir Starmer & Liz Truss. In some areas, voters will vote predominantly on national issues, in others they won't. There seems to be a specific problem in Leicester, related to but probably more serious & fundamental than the ones in Harrow (East in particular), for Labour. There is clearly a sharp move away from Labour amongst Hindu voters which recent polls have probably not yet counteracted, if they do at all. Fortunately for Labour, there are not that many seats where Hindu voters are a decisive influence, but there are some. I'd go as far as to say that there's a strong chance that if the Tories do suffer a huge meltdown at the next general election, and end up with let's say 120 seats, one of those seats would be a gain from Labour in Leicester East. (I think Labour will be fine in the other 2 city seats.) Labour IMHO exacerbated their already distinct electoral problems in the constituency by choosing a BJP supporter as their candidate. It's my educated guess that many Muslim voters, of whom there are plenty in that ward, would have felt unable to vote for such a Labour candidate - I suspect I'd have struggled to do so myself, and very likely would have voted Green - but that also it wasn't enough to placate that many Hindu voters who might well have thought, the Tories are more on my communal side in general and Labour need a kicking in this city. In Gloucester, Labour has serially underperformed for years, pretty much ever since the above-average retention of the constituency in the 2005 general election, when, extremely unusually for a marginal in that election, Parmjit Dhanda would have enjoyed a first-time incumbency factor (so too Rob Marris in Wolverhampton SW). Clearly, all of us here felt that this sequence would come to an end in light of current polls, but we were all wrong. So yes, there were some poor Labour results here. Does that mean the Tories can worry a bit less? I'd say, emphatically no. There's a world of difference between supporting a local Tory Party in preference to a local Labour Party which you have various reasons to dislike, and preferring Liz Truss (or whoever the Tory leader will be by that time) as Prime Minister to Keir Starmer, and while some of these results will be a real setback to Labour, and may in the case of Leicester East in particular portend electoral problems even in a general election, the polls don't lie to the extent that the Tories would need them to, and as a party they basically know it. The Tories need to enjoy these local victories, as the national picture will be a great deal worse for them.

[Merseymike]

Allowing Keith Vaz and his cronies to take over Labour in Leicester East does not appear to be a very good idea