Liberals win 3 seats in 1970

[rockefeller]

David Steel, Jeremy Thorpe and John Pardoe barely got by in 1970 - what happens if they all lost their seats?

[johnloony]

Someone else becomes party leader, but otherwise no substantial difference.

[greenchristian]

There would have been fewer dogs dying of gunshot wounds.

[neilm]

Sept 8, 2022 15:17:12 GMT greenchristian said:

There would have been fewer dogs dying of gunshot wounds.

And fewer people with seemingly no financial resources buying enormous houses in Chagford.

[The Bishop]

In the short term, it would very likely have led to Grimond getting another go (of course IRL he was interim leader in 1976 after Thorpe's resignation)

I suppose one interesting question is if the big "revival" in 1972-73 would still have happened despite such a setback.

[rockefeller]

What does it mean for the SDP-Liberal Alliance?

[mattbewilson]

Sept 10, 2022 14:05:52 GMT rockefeller said:

What does it mean for the SDP-Liberal Alliance?

maybe no alliance maybe no liberals

[tonyhill]

Much would have depended on whether Thorpe, Pardoe and Steel stood again in 1974. There was widespread dissatisfaction with the Heath government by mid-term when the Liberals started to win seats in by-elections, but no great enthusiasm for Wilson in February 1974, hence the 6 million votes for the Liberal Party at that election. Those three might have been encouraged to stand again had the mid-term revival still happened, which I think it would given that it was in great part driven by the Community Politics strategy adopted at the 1971 Assembly. I would have liked to have known Tony Greaves' take on this question.

[tonyhill]

The three survivors would have been Jo Grimond, Emlyn Hooson, and Russell Johnston. They were all good Liberals and I can't see any reason why any of them would have joined another party. Montgomery had been a Liberal constituency for 100 years (cheers Lembit), Orkney & Shetland had been held comfortably since the war. Hooson would have become Leader and although he would not really have been in sympathy with what was happening at the grassroots of the Party I doubt that he would have been as obstructive as Thorpe, and when the community politics strategy began to pay dividends a year or two later he would have provided solid leadership as opposed to the flamboyant and mercurial style of Thorpe which would probably have been a lot better for the Party in the long-run.

[rockefeller]

Does the Liberals' 70s revival still happen? Do they win Berwick-upon-Tweed, Isle of Ely, Ripon, Sutton & Cheam etc?

[The Bishop]

Sept 27, 2022 22:20:56 GMT Andrew_S said:

Sept 8, 2022 14:14:54 GMT johnloony said:

Someone else becomes party leader, but otherwise no substantial difference.

I remember reading somewhere that many people believed the 3 remaining Liberal MPs would have chosen to join other parties if this had happened.

After being reduced to 3 seats in 1970? Even then, I doubt it.

1951 was maybe more a possibility had there been no electoral pact with the Tories in certain constituencies, and they had thus been reduced to maybe 2 MPs. Even after winning 6 as they actually did, Churchill invited them to take posts in his new government - a clear attempt to eliminate the Liberals as a separate force for good - and then leader Clement Davies was apparently inclined to accept, but apparently warned off by Grimond amongst others.

[tonyhill]

The Liberal revival of the 70s began in the late 60s when the Young Liberals attracted a lot of people who were disillusioned with the Labour government. Embryonic community politics was already achieving electoral success, most notably in Liverpool where Cyril Carr had established himself and where Trevor "Jones the Vote" developed the strategy that would win Sutton & Cheam at the end of 1972. So yes, even with three MPs I think the by-election gains would have happened, and had they stood Thorpe, Pardoe and Steel would have regained their seats in February 1974.

[finsobruce]

Sept 28, 2022 17:58:13 GMT tonyhill said:

The Liberal revival of the 70s began in the late 60s when the Young Liberals attracted a lot of people who were disillusioned with the Labour government. Embryonic community politics was already achieving electoral success, most notably in Liverpool where Cyril Carr had established himself and where Trevor "Jones the Vote" developed the strategy that would win Sutton & Cheam at the end of 1972. So yes, even with three MPs I think the by-election gains would have happened, and had they stood Thorpe, Pardoe and Steel would have regained their seats in February 1974.

I seem to remember reading an article that said the 'revival' was started in Manchester , but they never had the electoral breakthrough that happened in Liverpool. Is this right or am i just imagining it?

[spqr]

Sept 28, 2022 18:02:09 GMT finsobruce said:

Sept 28, 2022 17:58:13 GMT tonyhill said:

The Liberal revival of the 70s began in the late 60s when the Young Liberals attracted a lot of people who were disillusioned with the Labour government. Embryonic community politics was already achieving electoral success, most notably in Liverpool where Cyril Carr had established himself and where Trevor "Jones the Vote" developed the strategy that would win Sutton & Cheam at the end of 1972. So yes, even with three MPs I think the by-election gains would have happened, and had they stood Thorpe, Pardoe and Steel would have regained their seats in February 1974.

I seem to remember reading an article that said the 'revival' was started in Manchester , but they never had the electoral breakthrough that happened in Liverpool. Is this right or am i just imagining it?

I've always understood that much of the impetus for Liberal 'community politics' at this time came from the activities of Wallace Lawler's group in Birmingham, resulting in his by-election victory in Ladywood in 1969. But maybe that's overstating it - either that or success has many fathers.

[Pete Whitehead]

Sept 28, 2022 18:09:48 GMT spqr said:

Sept 28, 2022 18:02:09 GMT finsobruce said:

I seem to remember reading an article that said the 'revival' was started in Manchester , but they never had the electoral breakthrough that happened in Liverpool. Is this right or am i just imagining it?

I've always understood that much of the impetus for Liberal 'community politics' at this time came from the activities of Wallace Lawler's group in Birmingham, resulting in his by-election victory in Ladywood in 1969. But maybe that's overstating it - either that or success has many fathers.

Yes but they don't like to talk about that

[finsobruce]

Sept 28, 2022 18:09:48 GMT spqr said:

Sept 28, 2022 18:02:09 GMT finsobruce said:

I seem to remember reading an article that said the 'revival' was started in Manchester , but they never had the electoral breakthrough that happened in Liverpool. Is this right or am i just imagining it?

I've always understood that much of the impetus for Liberal 'community politics' at this time came from the activities of Wallace Lawler's group in Birmingham, resulting in his by-election victory in Ladywood in 1969. But maybe that's overstating it - either that or success has many fathers.

Yes, although it's fair to say Lawler was cut from er,  very different cloth to the Young Liberals and even to Liverpool and Manchester. And agree with your second line.

[Sibboleth]

'Urban Poujadism' would be a fair description.

[tonyhill]

I almost mentioned Birmingham because I did some campaigning there in the late 60s with Dennis and Harold Minnis, and Paul (forgotten his surname) whose heartland was Aston. I didn't meet Wallace Lawler as I guess he was in Parliament, but I had the impression that he had a separate power base to the main group of councillors. Manchester University I think spawned the theoreticians of community politics - Tony Greaves, Gordon Lishman being the most important but a number of other people who became key to the revival of Liberalism in the Northern cities. So yes, success has many fathers indeed. In Cambridge we broke through in 1970 winning Market Ward by 6 votes after delivering a quarterly booklet for a couple of years. In 1971 we won by 600 votes - I was the agent! But the Union of Liberal Students activists of the late 60s and early 70s went back to their constituencies, not to prepare for power, but to build Liberalism ward by ward.

[greenhert]

Even if the Liberals would have disappeared long-term in such a scenario, a third party of significance would have emerged somewhere in England not too long afterward.

[spqr]

Sept 28, 2022 18:30:42 GMT tonyhill said:

I almost mentioned Birmingham because I did some campaigning there in the late 60s with Dennis and Harold Minnis, and Paul (forgotten his surname) whose heartland was Aston. 

Paul Tilsley?