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Post by bjornhattan on Nov 3, 2022 14:48:10 GMT
So Lib Dem surge or Faragist surge? We can both live in hope! Party like it's 2019?
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Post by mattbewilson on Nov 4, 2022 17:20:07 GMT
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Post by londonseal80 on Nov 5, 2022 11:57:52 GMT
Interesting I do think the tories will get hit harder in Surrey than in Kent, though I think they will hold more than two seats in the county. Reigate will surely be high on the Green target seats so doubt very much Labour will gain it (they have no councillor base here) Lib Dems could get 4 or 5 MPs in the county. I just about agree with London - Wimbledon will go Lib Dem if Kohler stands again but Cons will probably drop to third there. That shows the tories holding on the Orpington and two of the Bexley seats plus Romford.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Nov 5, 2022 12:25:36 GMT
Interesting I do think the tories will get hit harder in Surrey than in Kent, though I think they will hold more than two seats in the county. Reigate will surely be high on the Green target seats so doubt very much Labour will gain it (they have no councillor base here) Lib Dems could get 4 or 5 MPs in the county. I just about agree with London - Wimbledon will go Lib Dem if Kohler stands again but Cons will probably drop to third there. That shows the tories holding on the Orpington and two of the Bexley seats plus Romford. I think, for what its worth (which isn't very much) it shows Bexleyheath & Crayford as Labour so just OB&S staying Tory in Bexley and Romford is Labour but Hornchurch & Upminster Conservative.
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Post by batman on Nov 5, 2022 16:29:02 GMT
yes, it takes a smaller swing for Labour to win Romford than it does Hornchurch & Upminster. Pete is correct here including his FWIW as very few people seriously expect this to happen when the election comes.
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Post by london(ex)tory on Nov 11, 2022 10:02:52 GMT
I believe that’s the highest score for Reform in any national VI poll since the transition from Brexit to Reform?
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Post by batman on Nov 11, 2022 10:04:57 GMT
I'm sure it is, and a highly improbable one it is too.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 11, 2022 10:26:18 GMT
Yeah, given who is behind this outfit there is inevitably going to be a bit of cynicism about that figure.
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Post by michaelarden on Nov 12, 2022 20:27:31 GMT
Given RefUK are going to get no more than 2% adding six percent onto the Tories gives you 42 Lab, 27 Con, 9 Green, 9 Lib Dem and 5 SNP - which is pretty close to the others.
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graham
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Post by graham on Nov 12, 2022 21:00:32 GMT
Given RefUK are going to get no more than 2% adding six percent onto the Tories gives you 42 Lab, 27 Con, 9 Green, 9 Lib Dem and 5 SNP - which is pretty close to the others. The Greens are given a highly unlikely 9% here. In a GE 3% is far more realistic.
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Post by michaelarden on Nov 12, 2022 21:17:57 GMT
Given RefUK are going to get no more than 2% adding six percent onto the Tories gives you 42 Lab, 27 Con, 9 Green, 9 Lib Dem and 5 SNP - which is pretty close to the others. The Greens are given a highly unlikely 9% here. In a GE 3% is far more realistic. Don't disagree but most of the other pollsters have the Greens in the 5-8% range so it's not really out of kilter with that.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Nov 19, 2022 12:44:02 GMT
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Post by batman on Nov 19, 2022 16:35:35 GMT
Although this is similar to the results of the Omnisis poll yesterday, here Labour are up sharply & the Tories unchanged; in that poll, Labour are unchanged & the Tories are sharply down.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Nov 26, 2022 13:16:01 GMT
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Dec 2, 2022 11:55:32 GMT
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Post by london(ex)tory on Dec 8, 2022 23:45:02 GMT
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Post by woollyliberal on Dec 9, 2022 8:42:05 GMT
What is it about the People Polling methodology that has the Tories lower than everyone else and Reform higher?
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YL
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Post by YL on Dec 9, 2022 9:16:36 GMT
From their Twitter:
Lab 47 (+1) Con 20 (-1) Reform UK 9 (+2) Lib Dem 8 (+1) Green 6 (-3) SNP 5 (nc)
If Reform UK are doing that well nationally, what should they be getting in Stretford & Urmston? It's not exactly their ideal seat, but even so they surely ought to be showing some strength in by-elections?
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Post by carlton43 on Dec 9, 2022 9:19:39 GMT
What is it about the People Polling methodology that has the Tories lower than everyone else and Reform higher? Either they have a defined model that is ahead of the game in discerning what is believed in some quarters to be an imminent breakthrough OR They have got a distorted model with distorted results in seeking to over-prompt for a trend they believe to be there or even want to be there?
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nodealbrexiteer
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Dec 9, 2022 11:05:04 GMT
What is it about the People Polling methodology that has the Tories lower than everyone else and Reform higher? Either they have a defined model that is ahead of the game in discerning what is believed in some quarters to be an imminent breakthrough OR They have got a distorted model with distorted results in seeking to over-prompt for a trend they believe to be there or even want to be there? Prompting by pollsters always worries me, let the people speak and not put ideas in their head that aren't already there!
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