mark1968
Lib Dem
Liberal Democrat
Posts: 59 
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Post by mark1968 on Aug 4, 2022 19:52:56 GMT
East Riding of Yorkshire UA Beverley Rural (Con died)
Peter STEVENS (Conservative)
Diana Jeanne STEWART (Liberal Democrats)
Clare WILDEY (Labour)
2019 Con 2003, 1925, 1817 Lib Dem 1055, 968, 776, Green 916 Lab 525, 461, 417
Diana Stewart stood here last time.
On paper it should be an easy Conservative hold but as we saw in near by South Hunsley earlier this year dont write off the Liberal Democrats, I understand they are working the ward very hard
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Post by phil156 on Aug 22, 2022 9:56:00 GMT
The ward counts on Thursday night
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,176
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Post by Chris from Brum on Aug 22, 2022 10:02:39 GMT
East Riding of Yorkshire UA Beverley Rural (Con died) Peter STEVENS (Conservative) Diana Jeanne STEWART (Liberal Democrats) Clare WILDEY (Labour) 2019 Con 2003, 1925, 1817 Lib Dem 1055, 968, 776, Green 916 Lab 525, 461, 417 Diana Stewart stood here last time. On paper it should be an easy Conservative hold but as we saw in near by South Hunsley earlier this year dont write off the Liberal Democrats, I understand they are working the ward very hard The Greens are also absent, so there's quite a large vote there up for grabs. I wonder how Green voters last time used their second and third votes? |
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Post by lackeroftalent on Aug 22, 2022 10:26:15 GMT
East Riding of Yorkshire UA Beverley Rural (Con died) Peter STEVENS (Conservative) Diana Jeanne STEWART (Liberal Democrats) Clare WILDEY (Labour) 2019 Con 2003, 1925, 1817 Lib Dem 1055, 968, 776, Green 916 Lab 525, 461, 417 Diana Stewart stood here last time. On paper it should be an easy Conservative hold but as we saw in near by South Hunsley earlier this year dont write off the Liberal Democrats, I understand they are working the ward very hard The Greens are also absent, so there's quite a large vote there up for grabs. I wonder how Green voters last time used their second and third votes? Turnout: 4033 (36.5%) Total votes if all three used: 12,099 Total votes cast in 2019: 10863 Unused votes: 1,236 Maximum possible Green vote only: 618 My experience is mainly single councillor elections. What little I have seen of multi-councillor elections is that voters are pretty ecletic in voting behaviour. 1 Con, 1 Lab 1 unused is a perfectly normal ballot paper. If someone was minded to vote Green and then not use their two other votes then quite possible they won't be voting at all in this election. |
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,176
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Post by Chris from Brum on Aug 22, 2022 10:50:20 GMT
The Greens are also absent, so there's quite a large vote there up for grabs. I wonder how Green voters last time used their second and third votes? Turnout: 4033 (36.5%) Total votes if all three used: 12,099 Total votes cast in 2019: 10863 Unused votes: 1,236 Maximum possible Green vote only: 618 My experience is mainly single councillor elections. What little I have seen of multi-councillor elections is that voters are pretty ecletic in voting behaviour. 1 Con, 1 Lab 1 unused is a perfectly normal ballot paper. If someone was minded to vote Green and then not use their two other votes then quite possible they won't be voting at all in this election. I certainly don't rule that out, but LDs will be (a) trying to convert disillusioned Tories, (b) putting the squeeze message on Labour voters, of whom there are a non-negligible number, and (c) persuading Greens to lend support as well where possible. |
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Post by threecrowns on Aug 22, 2022 13:09:20 GMT
I'd be genuinely surprised if the Lib Dems don't win this.
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,176
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Post by Chris from Brum on Aug 22, 2022 13:23:06 GMT
I'd be genuinely surprised if the Lib Dems don't win this. Ah now, I'd be cautious about going that far, seeing how far ahead the Tories were last time. |
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Post by batman on Aug 22, 2022 13:51:47 GMT
last time was 2019 though. A lot has changed since then.
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Post by threecrowns on Aug 22, 2022 14:05:45 GMT
I'd be genuinely surprised if the Lib Dems don't win this. Ah now, I'd be cautious about going that far, seeing how far ahead the Tories were last time. We shall see. The East Riding Lib Dems are on a bit of a roll at the moment though, the East Riding Tories most certainly are not. |
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Post by yellowperil on Aug 22, 2022 16:53:20 GMT
Let's spell it out. There have been 5 by-elections in the East Riding since 2019 in which Tories have been trying to defend what should have been overwhelmingly safe seats.They did hang on to 2 in 2021, they lost one later in 2019 and two already this year to the Lib Dems. The two they hung on to were both very rural if that is a factor. In all 5 cases the LibDems were either previously absent or very distant- the Beverley Rural seat, where the Lib Dems start in second place with 23%, is by a long way the strongest LibDem starting point of the six. The nearest comparitor is probably the South Hunsley seat where the by-election was this April- there the LibDems won with 55% (up 41) and the Tories fell from 65 to 37. The two other gains were the Bridlington North byelections, and especially this year's one in June- Lib Dems on 57 from nowhere, and the Tories falling from 71 to 31.
The one seat where the Lib Dems made no impression was East Wolds & Coastal, almost exactly a year ago, but that I assume was a paper candidacy. We are told this time they are campaigning hard. South East Holderness was the other "failure" but it was a May by-election so presumably busy elsewhere, and still they got 22% from nowhere, so not that bad.
I am therefore fairly hopeful, the only slight doubts being about the rurality of the ward, and the thought that one day East Riding Conservatives are going to wake up.
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,176
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Post by Chris from Brum on Aug 25, 2022 12:31:20 GMT
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Post by Rutlander on Aug 25, 2022 22:15:32 GMT
Voter Turnout is 29.22%
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Post by middleenglander on Aug 25, 2022 22:36:24 GMT
Some 3,275 ballot papers or around 81% of the 2019 total. |
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timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823
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Post by timmullen1 on Aug 25, 2022 22:39:15 GMT
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Post by middleenglander on Aug 25, 2022 23:00:46 GMT
East Riding of Yorkshire: Beverley Rural - Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative| Party | 2022 votes | 2022 share | since 2019 "top" | since 2019 "average" | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | | Liberal Democrat | 1,948 | 59.4% | +36.0% | +37.4% | 46.1% | +45.4% | | Conservative | 1,116 | 34.1% | -10.5% | -11.2% | -7.1% | -6.1% | | Labour | 213 | 6.5% | -5.2% | -4.6% | -9.8% | -8.7% | | Green |
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| -20.4% | -21.6% | -12.6% | -13.3% | | UKIP |
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| -16.6% | -17.4% | | Total votes | 3,277 |
| 73% | 77% | 34% | 35% |
Swing: Conservative to Liberal Democrat 23¼% / 24¼% since 2019 and 26½% / 25¾% since 2015
Council now: 42 Conservative, 13 Liberal Democrat, 7 Independent Group, 3 Independent, 2 Yorkshire Party
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Post by phil156 on Aug 26, 2022 5:32:05 GMT
East Riding of Yorkshire: Beverley Rural - Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative| Party | 2022 votes | 2022 share | since 2019 "top" | since 2019 "average" | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | | Liberal Democrat | 1,948 | 59.4% | +36.0% | +37.4% | 46.1% | +45.4% | | Conservative | 1,116 | 34.1% | -10.5% | -11.2% | -7.1% | -6.1% | | Labour | 213 | 6.5% | -5.2% | -4.6% | -9.8% | -8.7% | | Green |
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| -20.4% | -21.6% | -12.6% | -13.3% | | UKIP |
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| -16.6% | -17.4% | | Total votes | 3,277 |
| 73% | 77% | 34% | 35% |
Swing: Conservative to Liberal Democrat 23¼% / 24¼% since 2019 and 26½% / 25¾% since 2015
Council now: 42 Conservative, 13 Liberal Democrat, 7 Independent Group, 3 Independent, 2 Yorkshire Party
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Post by evergreenadam on Aug 26, 2022 5:35:04 GMT
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Post by phil156 on Aug 26, 2022 5:35:34 GMT
Should the Conservative collapse be 16.6% that Yorkshire Elects Twitter are saying Expect you to be right
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Post by jamesdoyle on Aug 26, 2022 7:32:07 GMT
GWBWI
LDm +80
Lab -4
Con -63
ASV
LDm +1.3
Lab -0.1
Con -1.1
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Post by threecrowns on Aug 26, 2022 8:08:07 GMT
I'd be genuinely surprised if the Lib Dems don't win this. Never in doubt! The Tories are going to haemorrhage seats in the East Riding next year, Labour will be in with a chance in the seats round Beverley, Goole, Brid, Hedon and Withernsea and the LDs pretty much everywhere else. |
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