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Post by yellowperil on Aug 26, 2022 8:54:26 GMT
I'm not quite sure how far you can establish what is likely to happen in all out elections next year from what happens in mid term by elections. Certainly that is the fourth emphatic gain from the Tories by the Lib Dems since the last all out elections in 2019, and the Lib Dems are now up to 13 seats to the Conservative 42, assorted independents totalling 10, and the two YPs- no Labour and no Greens at present. Neither of the latter two have made much impact in the by elections. It is still a huge hill to climb for any opposition party.
To speculate on what a 2023 council might look like I have gone back 20 years to the 2003 inaugural election for this council in its present form. Then the Tories were the largest party with 28 seats from a 34% vote share, LDs 23 seats from 31%, Labour 8 seats from 18%, Inds 6 from 13%, and there were two SDP'ers. I think the new council might be similar but I suspect the Indies might be stronger, probably at the expense of the Tories which might leave the LDs as largest party. One encouraging sign- all 4 of the LD gains in this council have been in wards still Tory in 2003.
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Post by andrewp on Aug 26, 2022 8:58:22 GMT
I'd be genuinely surprised if the Lib Dems don't win this. Never in doubt! The Tories are going to haemorrhage seats in the East Riding next year, Labour will be in with a chance in the seats round Beverley, Goole, Brid, Hedon and Withernsea and the LDs pretty much everywhere else. Of course it’s not an exact science extrapolating by election results onto whole council elections. The Lib Dem’s have clearly got good organisation here where they can target wards. Does that mean they will win 30 seats on the council? Maybe, maybe not. The Tories often do better in full council elections than in by elections, because the Lib Dem’s often can’t target every ward with a kitchen sink campaign, particularly in what here are very large wards. . It might depend on how many wards the Lib Dem’s target. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 26, 2022 9:30:57 GMT
Though as said, Labour will also be targeting certain areas.
That they managed to win zero councillors last time with approaching 20% of the vote was a pretty "striking" result (though not in the right way)
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Post by grahammurray on Aug 26, 2022 9:34:44 GMT
I'm not quite sure how far you can establish what is likely to happen in all out elections next year from what happens in mid term by elections. Certainly that is the fourth emphatic gain from the Tories by the Lib Dems since the last all out elections in 2019, and the Lib Dems are now up to 13 seats to the Conservative 42, assorted independents totalling 10, and the two YPs- no Labour and no Greens at present. Neither of the latter two have made much impact in the by elections. It is still a huge hill to climb for any opposition party. To speculate on what a 2023 council might look like I have gone back 20 years to the 2003 inaugural election for this council in its present form. Then the Tories were the largest party with 28 seats from a 34% vote share, LDs 23 seats from 31%, Labour 8 seats from 18%, Inds 6 from 13%, and there were two SDP'ers. I think the new council might be similar but I suspect the Indies might be stronger, probably at the expense of the Tories which might leave the LDs as largest party. One encouraging sign- all 4 of the LD gains in this council have been in wards still Tory in 2003. It doesn't deflect from your main point but weren't the inaugural elections in 1996? |
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Post by yellowperil on Aug 26, 2022 9:51:14 GMT
I'm not quite sure how far you can establish what is likely to happen in all out elections next year from what happens in mid term by elections. Certainly that is the fourth emphatic gain from the Tories by the Lib Dems since the last all out elections in 2019, and the Lib Dems are now up to 13 seats to the Conservative 42, assorted independents totalling 10, and the two YPs- no Labour and no Greens at present. Neither of the latter two have made much impact in the by elections. It is still a huge hill to climb for any opposition party. To speculate on what a 2023 council might look like I have gone back 20 years to the 2003 inaugural election for this council in its present form. Then the Tories were the largest party with 28 seats from a 34% vote share, LDs 23 seats from 31%, Labour 8 seats from 18%, Inds 6 from 13%, and there were two SDP'ers. I think the new council might be similar but I suspect the Indies might be stronger, probably at the expense of the Tories which might leave the LDs as largest party. One encouraging sign- all 4 of the LD gains in this council have been in wards still Tory in 2003. It doesn't deflect from your main point but weren't the inaugural elections in 1996? Yes, that was probably misleading and I probably shouldn't have used the word inaugural. I did say "in this form "and by that I meant they were fought on new ward boundaries. Apologies. |
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Post by grahammurray on Aug 26, 2022 10:18:30 GMT
It doesn't deflect from your main point but weren't the inaugural elections in 1996? Yes, that was probably misleading and I probably shouldn't have used the word inaugural. I did say "in this form "and by that I meant they were fought on new ward boundaries. Apologies. Point taken. |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Aug 26, 2022 10:18:46 GMT
Though as said, Labour will also be targeting certain areas. That they managed to win zero councillors last time with approaching 20% of the vote was a pretty "striking" result (though not in the right way) Aside from Goole, Cottingham South and Hessle look like the most plausible targets for them, though in the latter case the contest is with the LDs so they wouldn't have the benefit of national headwinds. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 26, 2022 10:22:27 GMT
I suspect it might help Labour that each CLP covers one noticeably stronger area that they can target - Goole in Brigg & Goole; Beverley in Beverley & Holderness; Bridlington in East Yorks. Haltemprice & Howden is a bit of an exception but there might be some Hull suburbs worth targetting. That will allow them to concentrate resources in small areas although I don't know what the organisation of the East Riding CLPs is like
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Post by threecrowns on Aug 26, 2022 10:32:32 GMT
Though as said, Labour will also be targeting certain areas. That they managed to win zero councillors last time with approaching 20% of the vote was a pretty "striking" result (though not in the right way) Aside from Goole, Cottingham South and Hessle look like the most plausible targets for them, though in the latter case the contest is with the LDs so they wouldn't have the benefit of national headwinds. They got close in Minster and Woodmansey (the ward that covers the southern part of Beverley) in 2019, they'll definitely target that. |
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Post by yellowperil on Aug 26, 2022 12:59:39 GMT
Aside from Goole, Cottingham South and Hessle look like the most plausible targets for them, though in the latter case the contest is with the LDs so they wouldn't have the benefit of national headwinds. They got close in Minster and Woodmansey (the ward that covers the southern part of Beverley) in 2019, they'll definitely target that. I do note that one is quite close 3 ways and given the strength of the Lib Dems in the rest of the Beverley area I wouldn't be surprised if that one went at least in part to them. I'm also doubtful about a Labour attempt to dislodge the LDs in somewhere like Hessle. Goole and Cottingham South I agree look plausible targets and could conceivably give them 7 seats which is quite an advance on zero. |
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Post by listener on Aug 26, 2022 15:16:04 GMT
I hesitate to speculate about the future, as I usually prefer to listen, but I will make a brief comment about the immediate electoral prospects of Lab and the Lib Dems. To my mind, the results in Wakefield and Tiverton and Honiton reflect the respective positioning of the two opposition parties - a comfortable, but unspectacular win in Wakefield, contrasting with a tsunami victory in Tiverton and Honiton.
Looking at the speculation above, I have no doubt that the Lib Dems will make considerable gains in East Riding next year, but I am not so sure about the Labour Party.
The Labour vote has declined in all six by-elections held in August, varying between 4.3% since May in Bridgend Central to 16.4% since 2019 in Preesall. Labour did not contest Dodderhill in 2019.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 27, 2022 9:14:08 GMT
Well the two Labour defences in the past month were caused by disqualification due to fraud, and resigning around a week after being elected - neither of which is conducive to doing well in any resultant byelection. Apart from that, there were thin pickings for them in this month's contests - ironically Preesall might have been their best chance of an improvement had an Independent not stolen the show exploiting the local issue of the day.
Next month's offerings will give us more clue about Labour's ability to perform when it matters. It might also be worth pointing out that until recently, the conventional wisdom about next year's local elections was that the Tories might lose ground to Labour (who also, let's not forget, didn't perform terribly impressively in 2019) but would compensate that with gains from the LibDems and Independents. If they can no longer rely on the latter, it could be a long night for them.
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Post by grahammurray on Aug 27, 2022 10:22:45 GMT
Well the two Labour defences in the past month were caused by disqualification due to fraud, and resigning around a week after being elected - neither of which is conducive to doing well in any resultant byelection. Apart from that, there were thin pickings for them in this month's contests - ironically Preesall might have been their best chance of an improvement had an Independent not stolen the show exploiting the local issue of the day. Next month's offerings will give us more clue about Labour's ability to perform when it matters. It might also be worth pointing out that until recently, the conventional wisdom about next year's local elections was that the Tories might lose ground to Labour (who also, let's not forget, didn't perform terribly impressively in 2019) but would compensate that with gains from the LibDems and Independents. If they can no longer rely on the latter, it could be a long night for them. The circumstances around the Lib Dem defence in Cambridge were definitely less conducive to doing well and yet their vote rose while Labour's fell. The Labour performance in ERY was even worse. There was a 20% Green vote up for grabs and even if not a single one of them had voted the Labour share should have gone up by default but instead it crashed. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 27, 2022 10:40:35 GMT
Tactical voting, have you ever heard of it?
As for Cambridge, it was suggested by those with local knowledge that Labour's candidate was a "brave" choice.
Next week sees at least one contest where Labour has a real chance of winning a seat from the Tories, let's see how they do then.
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Post by grahammurray on Aug 27, 2022 11:48:55 GMT
Tactical voting, have you ever heard of it? As for Cambridge, it was suggested by those with local knowledge that Labour's candidate was a "brave" choice. Next week sees at least one contest where Labour has a real chance of winning a seat from the Tories, let's see how they do then. How does tactical voting explain South Staffs, Lancaster, Luton, Warwickshire, Camden, the earlier East Riding election in Bridlington or Shropshire? |
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The Bishop
Labour
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 27, 2022 11:50:14 GMT
It doesn't explain all those (though it was a factor in some) it does explain this week's result however.
You are now getting a bit tedious tbh.
There are plenty of contests in the coming month where Labour could and should do well. If they don't, by all means get back to me.
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Post by grahammurray on Aug 27, 2022 12:03:48 GMT
It doesn't explain all those (though it was a factor in some) it does explain this week's result however. You are now getting a bit tedious tbh. There are plenty of contests in the coming month where Labour could and should do well. If they don't, by all means get back to me. That list already contains examples of where Labour 'should do well' but went backwards. But thank you for your kind offer of letting me know when I can post and on which topics. |
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