Local Council by-elections 18th August 2022

[iainbhx]

Aug 19, 2022 5:02:58 GMT batman said:

indeed, I wonder if Cambridge Council has made itself particularly unpopular either in that ward or generally. Perhaps East Anglian Lefty has some knowledge?

I suspect the Labour candidate being a niqabi May have been a consideration.

[Chris from Brum]

Aug 19, 2022 5:21:49 GMT iainbhx said:

Aug 19, 2022 5:02:58 GMT batman said:

indeed, I wonder if Cambridge Council has made itself particularly unpopular either in that ward or generally. Perhaps East Anglian Lefty has some knowledge?

I suspect the Labour candidate being a niqabi May have been a consideration.

"I want to represent you but you can't see my face" is not a particularly compelling message, is it?

[iainbhx]

Aug 19, 2022 6:29:48 GMT Chris from Brum said:

Aug 19, 2022 5:21:49 GMT iainbhx said:

I suspect the Labour candidate being a niqabi May have been a consideration.

"I want to represent you but you can't see my face" is not a particularly compelling message, is it?

I must say it doesn't particularly bother me.

I am extremely religious would be my reason for not voting for that candidate as it has been for a couple of Christian candidates in the past as well.

[matureleft]

Aug 19, 2022 5:21:49 GMT iainbhx said:

Aug 19, 2022 5:02:58 GMT batman said:

indeed, I wonder if Cambridge Council has made itself particularly unpopular either in that ward or generally. Perhaps East Anglian Lefty has some knowledge?

I suspect the Labour candidate being a niqabi May have been a consideration.

When I looked at the campaign Facebook before the election I did think it a brave choice by Labour, and by her personally. But the other factor would have been that the Lib Dem was a long-term resident while none of the others seemed to be. Trumpington may still have a slightly "village" element to it would might like that,

[batman]

Trumpington itself does. But the ward reaches quite a long way towards the city centre and e.g. the Fitzwilliam Museum is only just outside the ward and there are some very definitely urban terraced streets in the north of the ward. But then you know that anyway!

[Pete Whitehead]

Aug 19, 2022 7:38:17 GMT batman said:

Trumpington itself does. But the ward reaches quite a long way towards the city centre and e.g. the Fitzwilliam Museum is only just outside the ward and there are some very definitely urban terraced streets in the north of the ward. But then you know that anyway!

Not anymore, since last year all that city centre type area has been moved into Petersfield and Market wards

[batman]

oh I was going by Andrew's map. Is it out of date? (There's a terraced street called Coronation Street in that - former - part of the ward)

[Pete Whitehead]

Aug 19, 2022 8:25:41 GMT batman said:

oh I was going by Andrew's map. Is it out of date? (There's a terraced street called Coronation Street in that - former - part of the ward)

Andrew's map is accurate (thankfully as I would not have wanted to stress him out further)

[YL]

Aug 19, 2022 8:25:41 GMT batman said:

oh I was going by Andrew's map. Is it out of date? (There's a terraced street called Coronation Street in that - former - part of the ward)

Andrew's map is correct. You can still see the changes in the LGBCE consultation portal (select "Cambridge wards" to see the old boundaries). The area north of the Botanical Garden, including Coronation Street, was moved to Market ward, while the area between the Botanical Garden and the railway line was moved to Petersfield.

[matureleft]

Aug 19, 2022 8:09:40 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Aug 19, 2022 7:38:17 GMT batman said:

Trumpington itself does. But the ward reaches quite a long way towards the city centre and e.g. the Fitzwilliam Museum is only just outside the ward and there are some very definitely urban terraced streets in the north of the ward. But then you know that anyway!

Not anymore, since last year all that city centre type area has been moved into Petersfield and Market wards

Yes, it remains true that the boundary isn't very far from the Fitzwilliam but the terraced Newtown area (including the city's only tower blocks - which used to be very popular council flats) has moved and there's a large amount of unpopulated or very lightly populated areas at what is now the north end.

[November_Rain]

Aug 19, 2022 6:29:48 GMT Chris from Brum said:

Aug 19, 2022 5:21:49 GMT iainbhx said:

I suspect the Labour candidate being a niqabi May have been a consideration.

"I want to represent you but you can't see my face" is not a particularly compelling message, is it?

Agreed. It shouldn't be allowed if you're running for office. Hijabs, that's fine because you see the face but not the full face covering. Religion and Politics need to be totally separate.

[Rutlander]

Aug 19, 2022 8:34:15 GMT November_Rain said:

Aug 19, 2022 6:29:48 GMT Chris from Brum said:

"I want to represent you but you can't see my face" is not a particularly compelling message, is it?

Agreed. It shouldn't be allowed if you're running for office. Hijabs, that's fine because you see the face but not the full face covering. Religion and Politics need to be totally separate.

Rubbish - it should be allowed.
But it is likely to be one of many factors  that voters will take into account when choosing how to vote (along with party, how long lived in area, how active in community, but also how good-looking or tall or friendly)

[East Anglian Lefty]

Trumpington ward as it now exists is 3 parts:

a) Trumpington village - mostly pretty middle-class. Does contain a fairly sizeable council estate, but a decent share of that is owner-occupied/privately rented and it's never been radically different in character from the rest of the village. Ordinarily ought to vote LD, a good Labour campaign can narrow but I suspect not close the margin
b) Clay Farm etal - new housing built in the past 10 years. A decent amount of affordable housing (though a lot of that will be shared ownership at a fairly high price point) and popular with people who've moved out of London and often take their politics with them
c) The streets north of Long Road - fabulously expensive, fairly thinly populated, the only votes Labour will get there are from the occasional member with more money than architectural taste

Not picking a local would definitely hurt with a), which is the largest share of the electorate and more so in a by-election. Also the local LD by-election machine always used to be good and I can't imagine it's atrophied totally. It's far too long since I lived in Cambridge to have any idea about what the major local issues would be in Trumpington these days.

[The Bishop]

Aug 19, 2022 8:34:15 GMT November_Rain said:

Religion and Politics need to be totally separate.

Well, chance would be a fine thing.

[jamesdoyle]

GWBWI

LDm +36
Grn +2
Lab -24
Con -93

ASV

LDm +0.6
Grn 0.0
Lab -0.4
Con -1.5

[The Bishop]

Sorry to upset some on here, but I don't think you did this for last week's contests

[matureleft]

Aug 19, 2022 8:49:21 GMT East Anglian Lefty said:

Trumpington ward as it now exists is 3 parts:

a) Trumpington village - mostly pretty middle-class. Does contain a fairly sizeable council estate, but a decent share of that is owner-occupied/privately rented and it's never been radically different in character from the rest of the village. Ordinarily ought to vote LD, a good Labour campaign can narrow but I suspect not close the margin
b) Clay Farm etal - new housing built in the past 10 years. A decent amount of affordable housing (though a lot of that will be shared ownership at a fairly high price point) and popular with people who've moved out of London and often take their politics with them
c) The streets north of Long Road - fabulously expensive, fairly thinly populated, the only votes Labour will get there are from the occasional member with more money than architectural taste

Not picking a local would definitely hurt with a), which is the largest share of the electorate and more so in a by-election. Also the local LD by-election machine always used to be good and I can't imagine it's atrophied totally. It's far too long since I lived in Cambridge to have any idea about what the major local issues would be in Trumpington these days.

In almost any other place this would be a Tory banker.  The local Tory party was struggling in my day (the late 70s to the early 90s) to adapt to the changing city. They’ve been heavily outgunned and outthought over the years by all the other parties to a point where they are virtually irrelevant in a city they once dominated. To be way out of contention here illustrates that.

Of course, in your part c., this is a city where big expensive houses always have a good scattering of Labour votes from the highly-educated private, public and university sector residents common in the city, although I recall that being rather less so here than in similar, but more attractive, streets in Newnham.

[YL]

Aug 19, 2022 10:06:50 GMT matureleft said:

In almost any other place this would be a Tory banker.  The local Tory party was struggling in my day (the late 70s to the early 90s) to adapt to the changing city. They’ve been heavily outgunned and outthought over the years by all the other parties to a point where they are virtually irrelevant in a city they once dominated. To be way out of contention here illustrates that.

Of course, in your part c., this is a city where big expensive houses always have a good scattering of Labour votes from the highly-educated private, public and university sector residents common in the city, although I recall that being rather less so here than in similar, but more attractive, streets in Newnham.

I don't think the Tories' struggles in Cambridge are that specific to the city. Before "conservativeestimate" deleted his account he would often comment on the situation in Oxford, which is not dissimilar, and highly educated areas in other cities, especially outside London, tend to show a similar pattern of historic Tory dominance which has disappeared.

EAL's area (c) roughly corresponds to a Lower Super Output Area where over 70% of adults had degree level qualifications in the 2011 census.

[andrewp]

Aug 19, 2022 10:06:50 GMT matureleft said:

Aug 19, 2022 8:49:21 GMT East Anglian Lefty said:

Trumpington ward as it now exists is 3 parts:

a) Trumpington village - mostly pretty middle-class. Does contain a fairly sizeable council estate, but a decent share of that is owner-occupied/privately rented and it's never been radically different in character from the rest of the village. Ordinarily ought to vote LD, a good Labour campaign can narrow but I suspect not close the margin
b) Clay Farm etal - new housing built in the past 10 years. A decent amount of affordable housing (though a lot of that will be shared ownership at a fairly high price point) and popular with people who've moved out of London and often take their politics with them
c) The streets north of Long Road - fabulously expensive, fairly thinly populated, the only votes Labour will get there are from the occasional member with more money than architectural taste

Not picking a local would definitely hurt with a), which is the largest share of the electorate and more so in a by-election. Also the local LD by-election machine always used to be good and I can't imagine it's atrophied totally. It's far too long since I lived in Cambridge to have any idea about what the major local issues would be in Trumpington these days.

In almost any other place this would be a Tory banker.  The local Tory party was struggling in my day (the late 70s to the early 90s) to adapt to the changing city. They’ve been heavily outgunned and outthought over the years by all the other parties to a point where they are virtually irrelevant in a city they once dominated. To be way out of contention here illustrates that.

Of course, in your part c., this is a city where big expensive houses always have a good scattering of Labour votes from the highly-educated private, public and university sector residents common in the city, although I recall that being rather less so here than in similar, but more attractive, streets in Newnham.

I don’t know Trumpington, and I assume the trends are exaggerated in somewhere like Cambridge, but Im not sure about in other places, the affluent wards being Tory bankers any more. I can think of quite a few towns in southern England where the most affluent middle class wards are Lib Dem.  In the recent Somerset elections for example, a lot of the middle class affluent suburban areas were LD, with the Conservatives doing better in some less affluent places. 

[bjornhattan]

Aug 19, 2022 11:41:49 GMT YL said:

Aug 19, 2022 10:06:50 GMT matureleft said:

In almost any other place this would be a Tory banker.  The local Tory party was struggling in my day (the late 70s to the early 90s) to adapt to the changing city. They’ve been heavily outgunned and outthought over the years by all the other parties to a point where they are virtually irrelevant in a city they once dominated. To be way out of contention here illustrates that.

Of course, in your part c., this is a city where big expensive houses always have a good scattering of Labour votes from the highly-educated private, public and university sector residents common in the city, although I recall that being rather less so here than in similar, but more attractive, streets in Newnham.

I don't think the Tories' struggles in Cambridge are that specific to the city. Before "conservativeestimate" deleted his account he would often comment on the situation in Oxford, which is not dissimilar, and highly educated areas in other cities, especially outside London, tend to show a similar pattern of historic Tory dominance which has disappeared.

EAL's area (c) roughly corresponds to a Lower Super Output Area where over 70% of adults had degree level qualifications in the 2011 census.

Yes - the Oxford ward most similar to Trumpington would probably be Wolvercote - it also covers a village on the edge of the city, some spectacularly wealthy streets which are actually in the urban area, as well as a council estate element. That ward was consistently Conservative until 1994, but has been Lib Dem ever since (though the Conservatives very nearly won it in 2008 and 2012).