Prediction Competition, August 2022

[Pete Whitehead]

Holidaying in Birmingham however sounds like a cruel and unusual punishment

[yellowperil]

Aug 4, 2022 9:58:47 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Holidaying in Birmingham however sounds like a cruel and unusual punishment

Isn't it where it's all at just at this moment?

[robbienicoll]

13 entries to kick off the month, with Tony Otim and casualobserver returning. All on time and correct.

Dallow, Luton: 100% Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 31% (kevinf) to 56% (casualobserver).

3 entries for Shetland. Greenhert has Ind (Cleaver) ahead on first prefs and ultimate winner, yellowperil has Ind (Cleaver) ahead on first prefs and Ind (Douglas) ultimate winner. Johnloony has all candidates on the same percentage.

Results available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1BTeh9pOGFaYxelY-c8DPURpVJDvgKTYMI0pu2i15AI8/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all!

[Robert Waller]

Well done kevinf, clearly the nearest prediction!

[yellowperil]

And on Shetland, congratulations to the ten people who failed to enter, so came equal first, followed by  @johnloonywho came next by giving all 5 candidates 20% each. I at least beat greenhert but both of us came close to getting the order exactly in reverse- I suspect what we couldn't assess was the strength of the campaign, as against the merits of the individual candidacies, so an illuminating exercise.

[kevinf]

Bridgend
Ind 35, Lab 32, Green 12, LD 11, Con 10
Spelthorne
LD 49, Con 47, Tusc 4
Wychavon
Con 48, LD 37, Green 15

[batman]

BRIDGEND, Bridgend Central : Ind 40 Lab 35 Con 16 LD 5 Green 4

SPELTHORNE, Laleham & Shepperton Green : LD 53 Con 44 TUSC 3

WYCHAVON, Dodderhill : Con 53 LD 36 Green 11

[mattb]

Aug 8, 2022 21:05:50 GMT batman said:

BRIDGEND, Bridgend Central : Ind 40 Lab 37 Con 18 LD 5

SPELTHORNE, Laleham & Shepperton Green : Green 52 Con 45 TUSC 3

WYCHAVON, Dodderhill : Con 53 LD 36 Green 11

LD not Green in Shepperton ?

[batman]

oh whoops, thought that the Greens were being given a clear run. Will edit.
Thanks Matt.

[Tony Otim]

Aug 9, 2022 15:06:44 GMT batman said:

oh whoops, thought that the Greens were being given a clear run. Will edit.
Thanks Matt.

There is however a Green in Bridgend you might want to add😉

[batman]

bloody hell. Thanks Tony. I fear it's the age creeping up on me. that or a mixture of stupidity or tiredness.

[Tony Otim]

Bridgend: Easterbrook 46.2; Lab 36.1; Con 11.4; LD 3.6; Grn 2.7
Spelthorne: LD 51.6; Con 44.0; TUSC 4.4
Wychavon: Con 56.3; LD 27.0; Grn 16.7

[johnloony]

Bridgend: Ind 41 Lab 35 Con 15 Grn 5 LD 4
Spelthorne: LD 54 Con 44 TUSC 2
Wychavon: LD 49 Con 38 Grn 13

[greenhert]

Bridgend UA, Bridgend Central: Independent (Easterbrook) 42, Labour 35, Conservative 15, Liberal Democrats 5, Green 3.

Spelthorne BC, Laleham & Shepperton Green: Liberal Democrats 55, Conservative 43, TUSC 2.

Wychavon DC, Dodderhill: Conservative 55, Liberal Democrats 35, Green 10.

[Richard Cromwell]

Dodderhill, Wychavon

CON	61%
LDEM	37%
GRN	2%

Bridgend Central, Bridgend

IND	44%
LAB	40%
CON	11%
GRN	4%
LDEM	1%

Laleham and Shepperton, Spelthorne

CON	40%
LDEM	34%
TUSC	26%

[peterl]

Bridgend UA, Bridgend Central: Independent (Easterbrook) 39, Labour 35, Conservative 13, Liberal Democrats 9, Green 4.

Spelthorne BC, Laleham & Shepperton Green: Liberal Democrats 59, Conservative 38, TUSC 3.

Wychavon DC, Dodderhill: Conservative 50, Liberal Democrats 38, Green 12.

[andrewp]

Bridgend, Bridgend Central. Ind 45, Lab 39, Con 9, LD 5, Green 2
Spelthorne. Lake ham and Shepperton Green. LD 56, Con 40, TUSC 4
Wychavon. Dodderhill. Con 50, LD 33 Green 17

[Robert Waller]

Bridgend, Bridgend Central: Ind 40, Lab 39, Con 11, LD 5, Green 5

Spelthorne, Laleham and Shepperton Green: LD 58, Con 39, TUSC 3

Wychavon, Dodderhill. Con 50, LD 25, Green 25

[yellowperil]

Bridgend, Central: Con 10, Lab 38, LD 6, GP 4, Ind 42.
Spelthorne, Laleham & Shepperton Green: Con 40, LD 57, TUSC 3.
Wychavon, Dodderhill: Con 50, LD 35, GP 15.

[rightleaning]

Bridgend, Bridgend Central: Ind 44, Lab 37, C 12, LD 4, Gn 3
Spelthorne, Laleham and Shepperton Green: LD 54, C 43, TUSC 3
Wychavon, Dodderhill. C 52, Gn 27, LD 21,