Prediction Competition - July 2022

[greenhert]

Basildon BC, Nethermayne: Independent (Larkin) 52, Labour 22, Conservative 19, Liberal Democrats 4, Reform UK 3.
Lancaster DC, Harbour: Labour 54, Conservative 38, Liberal Democrats 8.
North Warwickshire DC, Hartshill: Conservative 52, Labour 48.
South Staffordshire DC, Penkridge North East & Acton Trussell: Conservative 70, Liberal Democrats 17, Labour 13.

[batman]

BASILDON, Nethermayne : Ind 47, Lab 24, Con 18, LD 8, RefUK 3

LANCASTER, Harbour : Lab 54, Con 36, LD 10

N.WARWICKSHIRE, Hartshill : Lab 51, Con 49

S.STAFFORDSHIRE, Penkridge NE & Acton Trussell : Con 62, Lab 23, LD 15

[Robert Waller]

Basildon BC, Nethermayne: Independent (Larkin) 53, Labour 23, Conservative 15, Liberal Democrats 7, Reform UK 2.

[andrewp]

Basildon Nethermayne. Ind 53, Lab 21, Con 17, LD 6, Ref UK 3

[peterl]

Basildon Nethermayne. Ind 48, Lab 26, Con 14, LD 7, Ref UK 5.

[yellowperil]

Basildon, Nethermayne: Con 16, Lab 24, LD 4, Ref 4, Ind 52.

Thursday predictions to follow.

[rightleaning]

Basildon Nethermayne. Ind 50, Lab 23, Con 20, LD 4, Ref UK 3

[iainbhx]

Basildon DC, Nethermayne : Ind 50 Lab 22 Con 15 LDm 8 REF-UK 5
Lancaster DC, Harbour: LDm 38 Lab 35 Con 27
North Warwickshire DC, Hartshill: Lab 52 Con 48
South Staffordshire DC, Penkridge North East and Acton Trussell: Con 60 Lab 24 LDm 16

[Smartie]

BASILDON, Nethermayne : Ind 34.5, Lab 29.4, Con 23.4, LD 9.6, RefUK 3.1

[Richard Cromwell]

Hartshill, North Warwickshire

LAB	51%
CON	49%

Penkridge North East and Acton Trussell, South Staffordshire

CON	47%
LAB	40%
LDEM	13%

Harbour, Lancaster

LAB	59%
LDEM	26%
CON	15%

[andrewp]

Basildon might be an interesting one tonight. I wouldn’t be surprised if that Independent got 5% or 60%

[andrewp]

Lancaster. Harbour Lab 46, LD 37, Con 17
North Warwickshire. Hartshill. Con 51, Lab 49
South Staffordshire. Penkridge North East and Acton Trussell. Con 60, LD 25, Lab 15

[Robert Waller]

Lancaster, Harbour: Lab 46, LD 38, Con 16

North Warwickshire, Hartshill: Con 55, Lab 45

South Staffordshire, Penkridge North East and Acton Trussell: Con 55, LD 25, Lab 20

[Smartie]

Lancaster, Harbour: Lab 52.1, LD 34.3, Con 15.6

North Warwickshire, Hartshill: Lab 53.2, Con 46.8

South Staffordshire, Penkridge North East and Acton Trussell: Con 40.2, LD 40.2, Lab 19.6
LD on drawn lots

[peterl]

Lancaster, Harbour: Lab 46, LD 42, Con 12

North Warwickshire, Hartshill: Lab 54 Con 46

South Staffordshire, Penkridge North East and Acton Trussell: Con 49, LD 35, Lab 16

[yellowperil]

Lancaster, Harbour:Con 25,Lab 39, LD 36.
North Warks, Harthill: Con 49, Lab 51.
South Staffs, Penkridge & Acton Trussell: Con 50, Lab 15, LD 35.

[rightleaning]

Lancaster DC, Harbour: Lab 41, LD 38, Con 21
North Warwickshire DC, Hartshill: Con 52, Lab 48
South Staffordshire DC, Penkridge North East and Acton Trussell: Con 54, LD 28, Lab 18

[robbienicoll]

12 entries this week (with Richard Cromwell missing the Wednesday contest). All on time, with Smartie receiving 2 faults for going over in Lancaster.

Nethermayne, Basildon: 10 Independent (Larkin) win, majorities ranging from 5.1% (Smartie) to 32% (andrewp). Kevinf has a Labour gain with 2% majority over Conservatives.

Harbour, Lancaster: 11 Labour hold, majorities ranging from 3% (Right Leaning and yellowperil) to 33% (Richard Cromwell). Iainbhx has a Liberal Democrat gain with 3% majority.

Hartshill, North Warwickshire: 7 Labour gain from Conservative, with andrewp, greenhert, johnloony, Right Leaning and Robert Waller Conservative hold.

Penkridge North East and Acton Trussell, South Staffordshire: 10 Conservative hold, majorities ranging from 7% (Richard Cromwell) to 75% (johnloony). Kevinf has a Liberal Democrat gain with 1% majority and Smartie has a Liberal Democrat gain on lots.

Results available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1dGjl-iCKTMBz0QSmlBHGvbzUlNmusfM63nKuE7NLvdM/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all!

[johnloony]

When exactly is the deadline for making predictions? One of the Basildon predictions was after 7am on polling day. Does that incur penalties?

[Robert Waller]

Jul 21, 2022 20:42:59 GMT johnloony said:

When exactly is the deadline for making predictions? One of the Basildon predictions was after 7am on polling day. Does that incur penalties?

No, I think it's 9 a.m. on polling day, early risers may confirm?