Prediction Competition - July 2022

[batman]

I'm going to have a bash at predicting the fairly big crop of by-elections to be held on July 7.

CAMDEN, Hampstead Town :   LD 34 Lab 30 C 26 Green 5 Ind 4 National Housing Party 1

CHESTERFIELD, Hollingwood & Inkersall : Ind 47 Lab 42 Green 11

EPSOM & EWELL, W. Ewell :  R 70 Lab 14 LD 9 C 7

HACKNEY, De Beauvoir :  Lab 41  Green 23  Ind 15  Con 12  LD 7 WEP 3

MILTON KEYNES, Woughton & Fishermead :  Lab  66  C 20  LD 14

MOLE VALLEY, Charlwood :  Con 45 LD 42 Green 11 Lab 2

WELWYN HATFIELD, Hatfield Central : Lab  56 C 32  LD  8 Abolish TV Licence 4

W.SUSSEX, Worthing W. :  Lab 55 C 34  Green 7  LD 4

[kevinf]

Camden
Con 30, Lab 29, LibDem 25, Green 11, Ind 3, Nat Housing 2
Chesterfield
Ind 45, Lab 40, Green 15
Epsom
Residents 63, LibDem 15, Lab 12, Con 10
Hackney
Lab 35, Green 33, LibDem 15, Con 7, Ind Network 6, WEP 4
Milton K
Lab 60, Con 30, LibDem 10
Mole Valley
Green 43, Con 42, LibDem 10, Lab 5
Welwyn H
Lab 43, Con 40, LibDem 15, Abolish 2
West Sussex
Lab 48, Con 29, Green 13, LibDem 10

[robbienicoll]

There appears to be 22 by-elections for 22 seats during June.

- 8 by-elections on 7 July
- 8 on 14 July
- 1 on 20 July (a Wednesday)
- 3 on 21 July
- 2 on 28 July

13 by-elections are for District Councils, 4 of which were last contested in May and the remaining 9 in 2019
3 are for a Metropolitan Borough, all last contested in May
3 are for a London Borough Council, all last contested in May
2 are for County Councils, both of which were last contested in 2021
1 is for a unitary authority last contested in May

Conservatives defend 6 seats, 3 following the death of the previous councillor and 3 a resignation
Labour defend 11 seats, 5 following the death of the previous councillor, 6 after a resignation and 1 disqualification
Liberal Democrats defend 1 seat following the death of the previous councillor
Independents defend 2 seats, 1 following the death of the previous councillor and 1 a resignation
Residents Association of Epsom and Ewell defend 1 seat following the death of the previous councillor

With all SOPNs now published, there is a full slate of 22 Labour candidates, 21 for Conservatives (anyone know when Labour last fielded a full monthly slate and the Conservatives did not?), 16 Liberal Democrats, 10 Greens, 2 Reform UK and 1 apiece for UKIP, TUSC, Women’s Equality Party, National Housing Party, Independent Network, Abolish the BBC Television Licence, Coventry Citizens, Alliance for Democracy and Freedom and Residents Association of Epsom and Ewell together with 5 Independents contesting 5 seats
- a total of 85 candidates for 22 seats.

Predictions on this thread at 9.00am on the day of the election.

[peterl]

Camden LibDem 32, Lab 27, Con 24, Green 11, Ind 3, Nat Housing 3

Chesterfield Ind 43, Lab 40, Green 17

Epsom Residents 67, LibDem 12, Lab 11, Con 10

Hackney Lab 38, Green 32, LibDem 14, Ind Network 7, Con 5, WEP 4

Milton Keynes Lab 58, Con 29, LibDem 13

Mole Valley Green 45, Con 39, LibDem 12, Lab 4

Welwyn Hatfield Lab 48, Con 30, LibDem 19, Abolish TV Licence 3

West Sussex Lab 45, Con 28, Green 15, LibDem 12

[Richard Cromwell]

West Ewell, Epsom and Ewell

Residents Association	69%
LAB	18%
LDEM	10%
CON	3%

Woughton & Fishermead, Milton Keynes

LAB	67%
LDEM	17%
CON	16%

Hampstead Town, Camden

LDEM	32%
CON	30%
LAB	24%
GRN	7%
IND	5%
National Housing	2%

Charlwood, Mole Valley

CON	35%
GRN	34%
LAB	16%
LDEM	15%

Hatfield Central, Welwyn Hatfield

LAB	50%
CON	33%
LDEM	12%
Abolish TV Licence	5%

Worthing West, West Sussex

LAB	56%
CON	29%
LDEM	8%
GRN	7%

Hollingwood and Inkersall, Chesterfield

IND	54%
LAB	42%
GRN	4%

De Beauvoir, London Borough of Hackney

LAB	53%
LDEM	20%
GRN	18%
IND	4%
Women's Equality	2%
CON	3%

[Tony Otim]

I'm going to give this month a miss as I'm (hopefully) away for a few weeks. I'll be back in August hopefully.

Good luck to all!

[batman]

I should have waited a few days before posting my predictions. The last few days will not exactly help the Conservatives in most cases.

[iainbhx]

Jul 6, 2022 12:24:11 GMT Tony Otim said:

I'm going to give this month a miss as I'm (hopefully) away for a few weeks. I'll be back in August hopefully.

Good luck to all!

I‘ll be doing that in September and we will see you again in August.

[Tony Otim]

Jul 6, 2022 14:26:43 GMT batman said:

I should have waited a few days before posting my predictions. The last few days will not exactly help the Conservatives in most cases.

Alterations at this stage would still be allowed...

[greenhert]

Camden LBC, Hampstead Town: Labour 41, Conservative 28, Liberal Democrats 20, Green 7, National Housing Party 2, Independent (Livingstone) 2.

Chesterfield BC, Hollingwood & Inkersall: Independent (Rhodes) 48, Labour 45, Green 7.

Epsom & Ewell BC, West Ewell: Residents 69, Labour 13, Liberal Democrats 9, Conservative 9.

Hackney LBC, De Beauvoir: Labour 43, Green 35, Liberal Democrats 7, Independent Network 6, Conservative 6, Women's Equality Party 3.

Milton Keynes UA, Woughton & Fishermead: Labour 67, Liberal Democrats 19, Conservative 14.

Mole Valley DC, Charlwood: Green 41, Conservative 38, Liberal Democrats 16, Labour 5. Green gain from Conservative.

Welwyn Hatfield BC, Hatfield Central: Labour 55, Conservative 33, Liberal Democrats 10, Abolish TV Licence 2.

West Sussex CC, Worthing West: Labour 54, Conservative 31, Green 8, Liberal Democrats 7.

[Robert Waller]

CAMDEN, Hampstead Town : LD 36 Lab 31 C 21 Green 9 Ind 2 National Housing Party 1

CHESTERFIELD, Hollingwood & Inkersall : Ind 55 Lab 40 Green 5

EPSOM & EWELL, W. Ewell : R 70 Lab 13 LD 9 C 8

HACKNEY, De Beauvoir : Lab 57 Green 25 Ind 5 Con 5 LD 5 WEP 3

MILTON KEYNES, Woughton & Fishermead : Lab 69 C 15 LD 16

MOLE VALLEY, Charlwood : Con 35 LD 14 Green 45 Lab 6

WELWYN HATFIELD, Hatfield Central : Lab 54 C 28 LD 17 Abolish TV Licence 1

W.SUSSEX, Worthing W. : Lab 55 C 30 Green 10 LD 5

[andrewp]

Camden. Hampstead Town,. LD 36, Lab 30, Con 25, Green 5, Ind 3, NHP 1
Chesterfield. Hollingwood and Inkersall. Ind 59, Lab 35, Green 6
Epsom and Ewell. West Ewell. Res 66, Lab 13, LD 12, Con 9
Hackney. De Beauvoir. Lab 49, Green 27, LD 10, Ind 6, Con 4, WEP 4
Milton Keynes. Woughton and Fishermead. Lab 70, Con 19, LD 11
Mole Valley. Charnwood. Green 48, Con 38, Ld 9, Lab 5
Welwyn Hatfield. Hatfield Central. Lab 53, Con 32, LD 14, Abolish Tv license 1
West Sussex. Worthing West. Lab 54, Con 34, Green 7, LD 5

[Smartie]

CAMDEN, Hampstead Town : LD 32.7 Lab 34.6 C 18.3 Green 9.2 Ind 4.2 National Housing Party 1

CHESTERFIELD, Hollingwood & Inkersall : Ind 45.4 Lab 46.3 Green 8.3

EPSOM & EWELL, W. Ewell : R 68.3 Lab 16.3 LD 9.8 C 5.6

HACKNEY, De Beauvoir : Lab 48.3 Green 20.6 Ind 10.3 Con 11.1 LD 6.2 WEP 3.5

MILTON KEYNES, Woughton & Fishermead : Lab 67.3 C 17.5 LD 15.2

MOLE VALLEY, Charlwood : Con 36.4 LD 22.1 Green 39.2 Lab 2.2

WELWYN HATFIELD, Hatfield Central : Lab 54.6 C 28.3 LD 12.6 Abolish TV Licence 4.5

W.SUSSEX, Worthing W. : Lab 55.8 C 29.1 Green 9.3 LD 5.8

[yellowperil]

Camden, Hampstead Town: Con 16, Lab 34, LD 37, GP 8, Ind 4, NHP 1.
Chesterfield,Hollingwood & Inkersall: Lab  40, GP 8, Ind 52.
Epsom & Ewell,West Ewell: Con 6,Lab 16, LD 10, Res 68.
Hackney, DeBeauvoir: Con 6, Lab 50, LD 7, GP 26, Ind 8, WEP 3.
Milton Keynes, Woughton & Fishermead: Con 16, Lab 70,LD 14.
Mole Valley, Charlwood: Con 35, Lab 3, LD 18, GP 44.
Welwyn Hatfield, Hatfield C: Con 28, Lab 55, LD 16, ATVL 1.
West Sussex, Worthing W: Con 29, Lab 56, LD 6, GP 9.

[rightleaning]

Camden. Hampstead Town. LD 32, Lab 32, Con 24, Gn 7, Ind 4, NHP 1 (LD to win)
Chesterfield. Hollingwood and Inkersall. Ind 60, Lab 32, Gn 8
Epsom and Ewell. West Ewell. Res 65, LD 15, Lab 11, Con 9
Hackney. De Beauvoir. Lab 50, Gn 29, LD 11, Ind 4, Con 4, WEP 2
Milton Keynes. Woughton and Fishermead. Lab 68, Con 18, LD 14
Mole Valley. Charnwood. Gn 49, Con 33, LD 12, Lab 6
Welwyn Hatfield. Hatfield Central. Lab 55, Con 28, LD 16, Abolish Tv license 1
West Sussex. Worthing West. Lab 57, Con 26, Gn 10, LD 7

[iainbhx]

Camden LBC, Hampstead Town: Lab 34 LDm 33 Con 22 Grn 8 Ind 2 NHP 1
Chesterfield DC, Hollingwood & Inkersall: Ind 56 Lab 38 Grn 6
Epsom & Ewell DC, West Ewell: Res 70 LDm 13 Lab 11 Con 6
Hackney LBC, De Beauvoir: Lab 46 Grn 34 LDm 8 WEP 5 Con 4 Ind 3
Milton Keynes UA, Woughton & Fishermead: Lab 70 LDm 16 Con 14
Mole Valley DC, Charnwood: Grn 44 Con 34 LDm 17 Lab 5
Welwyn Hatfield DC, Hatfield Central: Lab 53 Con 31 LDm 15 Abolish TV 1
West Sussex CC, Worthing West: Lab 54 Con 32 Grn 8 LDm 6

[casualobserver]

CAMDEN: Con 16; Lab 37; LD 35; Grn 9; NHP 1; Ind 2
CHESTERFIELD: Lab 41; Grn 7; Ind 52
EPSOM & EWELL: Con 6; Lab 14; LD 10; Res 70
HACKNEY: Con 4; Lab 47; LD 9; Grn 33; IN 5; WEP 2
MILTON KEYNES: Con 12; Lab 72; LD 16
MOLE VALLEY: Con 30; Lab 5; LD 16; Grn 49
WELWYN HATFIELD: Con 25; Lab 57; LD 17; ATVL 1
WEST SUSSEX: Con 25; Lab 58; LD 7; Grn 10

[The Bishop]

Jul 6, 2022 14:26:43 GMT batman said:

I should have waited a few days before posting my predictions. The last few days will not exactly help the Conservatives in most cases.

Though as ever the significant number of postal votes that will already have been cast should dampen any such effect should it happen.

[johnloony]

I was debating with myself whether to enter this week’s competition, based on the assumption that (a) Conservative candidates would be damaged by Boris Johnson being in office, or (b) they would be helped by his resignation. If he had announced his resignation a few days earlier, it might have helped a bit more.

[robbienicoll]

12 entries to begin the month, with casualobserver rejoining and Tony Otim taking a well-deserved break. All on time, but with batman receiving 1 fault for going over in Hackney and Smartie receiving 0.1 for going under in Mole Valley.

Hampstead Town, Camden: 7 Liberal Democrat gain from Labour, with casualobserver, greenhert, iainbhx and Smartie Labour hold, and kevinf Conservative gain.

Hollingwood and Inkersall, Chesterfield: 11 Ind (Rhodes win), with Smartie Labour gain (majority 0.9%).

West Ewell, Epsom and Ewell: 100% Residents Association hold, with majorities ranging from 48% (kevinf) to 57% (iainbhx and Robert Waller).

De Beauvoir, Hackney: 100% Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 6% (peterl) to 33% (Richard Cromwell).

Woughton and Fishermead, Milton Keynes: 100% Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 29% (peterl) to 56% (casualobserver).

Charlwood, Mole Valley: 10 Green gain from Conservative, with batman and Richard Cromwell Conservative hold.

Hatfield Central, Welwyn Hatfield: 100% Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 3% (kevinf) to 32% (casualobserver).

Worthing West, West Sussex: 100% Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 17 % (peterl) to 33% (casualobserver).

Results available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1-LnX_uXC0nUAPFlkUKIQwjM11u6aY6kpoh7ZGfjmXi4/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all!