Prediction Competition - July 2022

[johnloony]

A general thought on predictions:

When I make my predictions of local by-election results, I would normally start with the percentages for each party from the previous election(s), and then guess a few pluses and minuses.

When I was predicting the result for the South Croydon by-election last week, and when I was predicting the result for Park Hill & Whitgift ward (where I live) in the main elections in May, I was thinking in terms of numbers (not percentages) and I was extrapolating guesses from the known numbers/samples of postal votes and others. I wasn’t really thinking in terms of percentages.

How people predict things depends on whether they have local knowledge.

[Robert Waller]

Well done to yellowperil for the win this week, he is clearly the form horse' at present!

[batman]

BRECKLAND, Thetford Boudica : Lab 62 C 38

COVENTRY, Binley & Willenhall : Lab 47 C 26 Cov Citizens 20 ADF 4 TUSC 3

HYNDBURN, Overton : Lab 45 C 43 RefUK 8 Ind 4

N.TYNESIDE, Camperdown : Lab 53 Green 18 C 15 LD 8 UKIP 6

S.SOMERSET, Brympton : LD 52 C 30 Green 8 Lab 6 Ind 4

WANDSWORTH, Tooting Broadway : Lab 61 Green 18 C 16 LD 5

WARWICKSHIRE, Arden : C 48 LD 37 Lab 15

WIRRAL, Liscard : Lab 52 C 22 Green 20 LD 6

[johnloony]

Breckland: Con 52 Lab 48
Coventry: Lab 43 Con 31 CC 22 ADF 3 TUSC 1
Hyndburn: Con 44 Lab 42 RefUK 9 Ind 5
North Tyneside: Lab 59 Con 25 LD 6 Grn 5 UKIP 5
South Somerset: LD 53 Con 26 Lab 7 Grn 7 Ind 7
Wandsworth: Lab 60 Con 17 LD 13 Grn 10
Warwickshire: Con 76 LD 14 Lab 10
Wirral: Lab 60 Con 25 LD 10 Grn 5
Rutland: LD 93 TUSC 3 WRP 2 WPB 0.7 SLP 0.5 Rutland People’s Front 0.4 People’s Front of Rutland 0.3 Rutland People’s Revolutionary Party 0.1

[Richard Cromwell]

Thetford Boudica, Breckland

LAB	57%
CON	43%

Binley and Willenhall, Coventry

LAB	46%
Coventry Citizens	26%
CON	21%
TUSC	4%
Alliance for Freedom and Democracy	3%

Camperdown, North Tyneside

LAB	58%
CON	20%
GRN	11%
LDEM	9%
UKIP	2%

Brympton, South Somerset

LDEM	55%
CON	23%
LAB	19%
GRN	2%
IND	1%

Tooting Broadway, Wandsworth

LAB	63%
GRN	14%
CON	13%
LDEM	10%

Overton, Hyndburn

LAB	53%
CON	30%
Reform	15%
IND	2%

Liscard, Wirral

LAB	63%
CON	15%
LDEM	12%
GRN	10%

Arden, Warwickshire

CON	65%
LAB	19%
LDEM	16%

[greenhert]

Breckland DC, Thetford Boudica: Labour 54, Conservative 46. Labour gain from Conservative.
Coventry MBC, Binley & Willenhall: Labour 44, Conservative 35, Coventry Citizens 16.5, TUSC 2.5, AfD&F 2.
Hyndburn DC, Overturn: Labour 52, Conservative 40, Independent (Miller) 6, Reform UK 2.
North Tyneside MBC, Camperdown: Labour 66, Conservative 24, Green 5, Liberal Democrats 4, UKIP 1.
South Somerset DC, Brympton: Liberal Democrats 52, Conservative 30, Green 8, Labour 7, Independent (Richards) 3.
Wandsworth LBC, Tooting Broadway: Labour 58, Conservative 25, Green 13, Liberal Democrats 4.
Warwickshire CC, Arden: Conservative 64, Labour 24, Liberal Democrats 12.
Wirral MBC, Liscard: Labour 61, Conservative 25, Green 9, Liberal Democrats 5.

[kevinf]

Breckland
Lab 52, Con 48
Coventry
CovCitizen 38, Lab 37, Con 20, Tusc 3, AfD 2
Hybdburn
Lab 48, Con 35, Ind 10, RefUK 7
N Tyneside
Lab 38, LD 35, Con 13, Green 11, Ukip 3
S Somerset
LD 50, Con 25, Green 12, Lab 8, Ind 5
Wandsworth
Lab 50, Green 25, Con 15, LD 10
Warwick’s
Con 50, LD 42, Lab 8
Wirral
Lab 40, Green 30, Con 20, LD 10

[peterl]

Breckland DC, Thetford Boudica: Labour 56, Conservative 44. Labour gain from Conservative.

Coventry MBC, Binley & Willenhall: Labour 47, Conservative 29, Coventry Citizens 19, TUSC 3, AfD&F 2.

Hyndburn DC, Overturn: Labour 55, Conservative 32, Independent (Miller) 9, Reform UK 4.

North Tyneside MBC, Camperdown: Labour 62, Conservative 23, Green 8, Liberal Democrats 5, UKIP 2.

South Somerset DC, Brympton: Liberal Democrats 56, Conservative 23, Green 11, Labour 6, Independent (Richards) 4.

Wandsworth LBC, Tooting Broadway: Labour 54, Conservative 22, Green 19, Liberal Democrats 5.

Warwickshire CC, Arden: Conservative 55, Labour 29, Liberal Democrats 16.

Wirral MBC, Liscard: Labour 62, Conservative 21, Green 11, Liberal Democrats 6.

[yellowperil]

Presumably those folk referring to the Hyndburn ward as Overturn think they know a thing or two.....Nominative determinism?

[andrewp]

Breckland, Thetford Boudica. Lab 56, Con 44
Coventry, Binley and Willenhall. Lab 46, Cov Cit 27, Con 22: ADF 3, TUSc 2
Hyndburn. Overton, Lab 50, Con 35, Reform 9, Ind 6
North Tyneside, Camperdown, Lab 62, Con 23, LD 7, Green 6, UKIP 2
South Somerset. Brympton. LD 51, Con 34: Lab 6, Green 5, Ind 4
Wandsworth, Tooting Broadway, Lab 62, Con 18, Green 14, LD 6
Warwickshire, Arden. Con 63, LD 26, Lab 11
Wirral, Liscard, Lab 65, Con 18, Green 11: LD 6

[Robert Waller]

Breckland, Thetford Boudica. Lab 55, Con 45

Coventry, Binley and Willenhall. Lab 50, Cov Cit 20, Con 26, ADF 3, TUSC 1

Hyndburn. Overton, Lab 52, Con 36, Reform 7, Ind 5

North Tyneside, Camperdown, Lab 64, Con 19, LD 6, Green 9, UKIP 2

South Somerset. Brympton. LD 58, Con 28: Lab 5, Green 5, Ind 4

Wandsworth, Tooting Broadway, Lab 62, Con 16, Green 16, LD 6

Warwickshire, Arden. Con 57, LD 35, Lab 8

Wirral, Liscard, Lab 65, Con 20, Green 10, LD 5

[Smartie]

Breckland, Thetford Boudica. Lab 51.2, Con 48.8
Coventry, Binley and Willenhall. Lab 42.6, Cov Cit 28.8, Con 22.4: ADF 5.1, TUSc 1.1
Hyndburn. Overton, Lab 50.3, Con 29.6, Reform 6.3, Ind 13.8
North Tyneside, Camperdown, Lab 59.8, Con 20.4, LD 2.3, Green 15.3, UKIP 2
South Somerset. Brympton. LD 54.3, Con 25.6: Lab 7.4, Green 4.9, Ind 7.8
Wandsworth, Tooting Broadway, Lab 72.4, Con 14.6, Green 8.7, LD 4.3
Warwickshire, Arden. Con 52.2, LD 36.8, Lab 11
Wirral, Liscard, Lab 64.5, Con 15.6, Green 14.3: LD 5.6

[yellowperil]

Breckland, Thetford Boudica: Con 47, Lab 53.
Coventry,Binley & Willenhall: Con 21, Lab 45, CC 28, ADF 4, TUSC 2.
Hyndburn, Overton: Con 36, Lab 50, RefUK 8, Ind 6.
North Tyneside, Camperdown: Con 18, Lab 50, LD 17, GP 13, UKIP 2.
South Somerset, Brympton: Con 24, Lab 9, LD 52, GP 10, Ind 5.
Wandsworth, Tooting Broadway: Con 15, Lab 51, LD 14, GP 20.
Warks, Arden: Con 47, Lab 10, LD 43.
WIrral, Liscard: Con 18, Lab 50,LD 12, GP 20.

[rightleaning]

Breckland, Thetford Boudica. Lab 54, C 46
Coventry, Binley and Willenhall. Lab 50, Cov Cit 27, C 20, ADF 2, TUSc 1
Hyndburn. Overton, Lab 52, C 36, Reform 7, Ind 5
North Tyneside, Camperdown, Lab 60, C 24, LD 10, Gn 5, UKIP 1
South Somerset. Brympton. LD 54, C 29, Gn 8, Lab 6, Ind 3
Wandsworth, Tooting Broadway, Lab 63, Gn 17, C 14, LD 6
Warwickshire, Arden. C 59, LD 34, Lab 7
Wirral, Liscard, Lab 62, C 18, Gn 13, LD 7

[iainbhx]

Breckland DC, Thetford Boudica : Lab 53 Con 47
Coventry MBC, Binley and Willenhall : Lab 47 CovCitz 28 Con 18 AfDF 5 TUSC 2
Hyndburn DC, Overton : Lab 39 Ind 27 Con 26 REFUK 8
North Tyneside MBC, Camperdown: Lab 59 Con 23 Grn 12 UKIP 4 LDm 2
South Somerset DC, Brympton: LDm 57 Con 20 Ind 10 Grn 7 Lab 6
Wandsworth LBC, Tooting Broadway: Lab 64 Grn 17 Con 14 LDm 5
Warwickshire CC, Arden: Con 55 LDm 36 Lab 9
Wirral MBC, Liscard: Lab 58 Con 24 Grn 13 LDm 5

[robbienicoll]

12 entries this week, with johnloony coming in for casualobserver. All on time, with Smartie receiving 0.2 faults for going under in North Tyneside.

Thetford Boudica, Breckland: 11 Labour gain from Conservative, with majorities ranging from 2.4% (Smartie) to 24% (batman). Johnloony Conservative hold with 4% majority.

Binley and Willenhall, Coventry: 11 Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 9% (greenhert) to 24% (Robert Waller). Kevinf Coventry Citizens gain with 1% majority.

Overton, Hyndburn: 11 Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 2% (batman) to 23% (peterl and Richard Cromwell). Johnloony Conservative gain with 2% majority.

Camperdown, North Tyneside: 100% Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 3% (kevinf) to 45% (Robert Waller).

Brympton, South Somerset: 100% Liberal Democrat hold, with majorities ranging from 17% (andrewp) to 37% (iainbhx).

Tooting Broadway, Wandsworth: 100% Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 25% (kevinf) to 57.8% (Smartie).

Arden, Warwickshire: 100% Conservative hold, with majorities ranging from 4% (yellowperil) to 62% (johnloony).

Liscard, Wirral: 100% Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 10% (kevinf) to 48.9% (Smartie).

Results available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1uReE7_m5IF5MCRG8C35g5Ihyy1uMsH6DhpH656Rfzvo/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all!

[Robert Waller]

Congratulations to rightleaning for the week's victory and andrewp taking over the lead for the month!

[robbienicoll]

Jul 15, 2022 9:49:28 GMT Robert Waller said:

Congratulations to rightleaning for the week's victory and andrewp taking over the lead for the month!

Very good week all round, no individual contests went over 300 total faults.

[kevinf]

Reminder there’s a Wednesday this week

Basildon (Weds)
Lab 29, Con 27, Ind 20, LD 20, RefUK 4

Lancaster
Lab 45, LD 40, Con 15
N Warwicks
Lab 56, Con 44
South Staffs
LD 45, Con 44, Lab 11

[johnloony]

BASILDON DC; Nethermayne: Ind 50 Con 20 Lab 15 RefUK 10 LD 5
LANCASTER DC; Harbour: Lab 50 Con 40 LD 10
NORTH WARWICKSHIRE DC; Hartshill: Con 51 Lab 49
SOUTH STAFFORDSHIRE DC; Penkridge North East & Acton Trussell: Con 85 LD 10 Lab 5