Local Council by-elections 20th/21st July 2022

[middleenglander]

Basildon: Nethermayne - Independent hold

Party	2022 B votes	2022 B share	since 2022	since 2021	since 2019	since 2018
Independent Larkin	909	62.7%	-7.1%	+17.0%	-10.4%	-14.6%
Conservative	233	16.1%	+4.1%	-4.3%	+8.9%	+9.1%
Labour	169	11.7%	-2.8%	-5.0%	-0.2%	-1.5%
Liberal Democrat	102	7.0%	+3.2%	+3.5%	+3.8%	from nowhere
Reform	37	2.6%	from nowhere	+1.3%	from nowhere	from nowhere
Basildon Community Residents				-12.4%
Independent Hodge					-4.7%
UKIP						-2.8%
Total votes	1,450		52%	46%	49%	44%

Swing:  if meaningful, Independent to Conservative 5½% since May, 9¾% since 2019 and 11¾% since 2018 but Conservative to Independent 10¾% since 2021 

Council now:  25 Conservative, 10 Labour, 5 Independent Group, 2 Wickford Independent

Lancaster: Harbour - Labour hold

Party	2022 votes	2022 share	since 2019"top"	since 2019 "average"	since 2015 "top"	since 2015 "average"
Labour	555	47.9%	+3.8%	+4.5%	+13.1%	+14.9%
Liberal Democrat	479	41.4%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
Conservative	124	10.7%	-1.6%	-2.6%	-9.2%	-10.0%
Morecambe Bay Independent			-31.5%	-33.1%	-12.1%	-11.9%
Green			-12.1%	-10.1%	-9.9%	-10.3%
UKIP					-23.2%	-24.1%
Total votes	1,158		84%	93%	32%	33%

Swing:  not meaningful

Council now:  16 Labour, 11 Green, 9 Conservative, 6 Morecambe Bay Independent, 5 Independent Group, 4 Liberal Democrat, 4 Independent Bay Group, 4 Eco-Socialists, 1 vacancy

North Warwickshire: Harthill - Conservative hold

Party	2022 votes	2022 share	since 2019 "top"	since 2019 "average"	since 2015 "top"	since 2015 "average"
Conservative	351	53.3%	+4.7%	+4.9%	+9.5%	+11.6%
Labour	307	46.7%	+11.9%	+13.0%	+13.3%	+13.3%
Green			-16.6%	-17.9%
UKIP					-22.7%	-24.8%
Total votes	658		70%	75%	32%	35%

Swing:  Conservative to Labour 3½% / 4% since 2019 and 2% / ¾% since 2015

Council now:  23 Conservative, 11 Labour, 1 Independent

South Staffordshire:  Penkridge North East & Acton Trussel - Conservative hold

Party	2022 votes	2022 share	2019 result	2015 result	since 2011 "top"	since 2011 "average"
Conservative	388	47.8%	2 unopposed	2 unopposed	-3.8%	-3.4%
Liberal Democrat	378	46.6%			from nowhere	from nowhere
Labour	45				-17.1%	-17.3%
Independent					-25.7%	-25.9%
Total votes	811				50%	50%

Swing: not meaningful 

Council now:  36 Conservative, 8 Independent, 3 Green, 1 Labour, 1 UKIP

[jamesdoyle]

Good Week/Bad Week Index

A somewhat bland week, although the Tory score goes to show that holding seats doesn't necessarily count as good results, when you hold them narrowly after many cycles of winning massively (or unopposed). They can't catch a break, can they?

Lab +45
LDm +3
Con -51

Adjusted Seat Value

Lab +0.7
LDm +0.0
Con -0.5

Full explanation of GWBWI: vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/16159/good-week-bad-index

[ricmk]

Thems the breaks huh?

A hold is a hold - might not get GWBWI points but they are 2 seats the Cons would surely have lost had the Johnson farce continued. Maybe rock bottom has been reached and passed.

[jamesdoyle]

Jul 22, 2022 7:27:51 GMT ricmk said:

Thems the breaks huh?

A hold is a hold - might not get GWBWI points but they are 2 seats the Cons would surely have lost had the Johnson farce continued. Maybe rock bottom has been reached and passed.

Difficult to say what difference Johnson staying might have made: LibDems nearly taking Penkridge after at least twenty years of no LD candidate (and no opposition at all to the Tories in nearly all elections) would still have been a tall order with him in place. Labour maybe could have done a bit better, but their by election performances against the Cons haven't been as yas the LibDems, so this is very much of a pattern with pre-Jexit ones. I think there's a level of visceral loathing for the Cons at the moment, whoever is 'leading'. It's all a bit mid-90s

[Pete Whitehead]

Jul 22, 2022 7:39:19 GMT jamesdoyle said:

Jexit

For fuck sake please don't. Why not stick a 'gate' on the end of it and kill the language once and for all..

[andrewp]

Jul 22, 2022 7:39:19 GMT jamesdoyle said:

Jul 22, 2022 7:27:51 GMT ricmk said:

Thems the breaks huh?

A hold is a hold - might not get GWBWI points but they are 2 seats the Cons would surely have lost had the Johnson farce continued. Maybe rock bottom has been reached and passed.

Difficult to say what difference Johnson staying might have made: LibDems nearly taking Penkridge after at least twenty years of no LD candidate (and no opposition at all to the Tories in nearly all elections) would still have been a tall order with him in place. Labour maybe could have done a bit better, but their by election performances against the Cons haven't been as yas the LibDems, so this is very much of a pattern with pre-Jexit ones. I think there's a level of visceral loathing for the Cons at the moment, whoever is 'leading'. It's all a bit mid-90s

I think there’s not much doubt that we had got to the point where Johnson resigning ( not actually gone yet of course) will probably only improve the Tory performance and I would agree that it’s very likely that the narrow margins of victory in those two seats suggest that they would have been lost if he had still been clinging on. The lack of many contested elections in Penkridge makes it difficult to compare there. I doubt the Lib Dems would have got 46% in any regular election there in the last 15 years , but I doubt they’ll get 46% in the normal election in May 23. I disagree with your last statement- the point of the 20 points ahead nutters on Twitter is that Labour aren’t 20 points ahead, so whilst things are bad for the Conservatives, most polls are pointing to Labour getting a small majority next time, at best, the Con floor is 30-35% rather than 25% in 1995, so it isn’t mid 90s, at least yet. 

[minionofmidas]

Shouldn't that be Boxit?

[jamesdoyle]

Jul 22, 2022 7:45:35 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Jul 22, 2022 7:39:19 GMT jamesdoyle said:

Jexit

For fuck sake please don't. Why not stick a 'gate' on the end of it and kill the language once and for all..

I know, I know. I was just typing on my phone and really couldn't be bothered with the full thing. I'll try and do better in future!

[The Bishop]

Tories would have lost the seat in S Staffs if Labour hadn't stood - its not often you can say such a thing totally definitively, but I think you can here.

And despite that narrow hold I would say it was still a poor result for the Tories overall and doesn't indicate much of a recovery. N Warwickshire was better and arguably does, but it remains a significant swing away from them compared to the 2019 result - in a part of the country that has moved hugely against Labour in recent years. All told the 2023 elections have the potential to be grim for them, especially if you expect any "new PM" honeymoon to be well over by then.

[Merseymike]

Jul 22, 2022 9:34:26 GMT The Bishop said:

Tories would have lost the seat in S Staffs if Labour hadn't stood - its not often you can say such a thing totally definitively, but I think you can here.

And despite that narrow hold I would say it was still a poor result for the Tories overall and doesn't indicate much of a recovery. N Warwickshire was better and arguably does, but it remains a significant swing away from them compared to the 2019 result - in a part of the country that has moved hugely against Labour in recent years. All told the 2023 elections have the potential to be grim for them, especially if you expect any "new PM" honeymoon to be well over by then.

That assumes that there will be that sort of honeymoon, particularly if they choose Liz Truss, who I can't see inspiring that sort of enthusiasm outside those who are sticking with the Tories anyway.
I can understand why Labour stood a candidate, because while the ward has hardly any support it is in a reasonably marginal seat where Labour will need to maximise its vote in a general election. Not putting up a candidate may make LibDem voting a default in that ward.

[The Bishop]

Truss is seeing her ratings improve a bit (the familiar "halo effect" of being confirmed as the plausible next PM) and I expect there will be a bit of a Tory bounce whether she or Sunak wins. It will likely be some way from the transformative effect Johnson had, though.

[Merseymike]

Jul 22, 2022 9:47:05 GMT The Bishop said:

Truss is seeing her ratings improve a bit (the familiar "halo effect" of being confirmed as the plausible next PM) and I expect there will be a bit of a Tory bounce whether she or Sunak wins. It will likely be some way from the transformative effect Johnson had, though.

Could be. But she has more than a month to mess up and I don't see Sunak playing the nice guy. I don't think he has a lot of time for her.

Are her ratings increasing among those who intend to vote Tory anyway?

[Adam in Stroud]

Jul 22, 2022 7:45:35 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Jul 22, 2022 7:39:19 GMT jamesdoyle said:

Jexit

For fuck sake please don't. Why not stick a 'gate' on the end of it and kill the language once and for all..

Gates with "Exit" marked on them are going to be a problem from now on.

[Adam in Stroud]

Jul 22, 2022 9:41:42 GMT Merseymike said:

Jul 22, 2022 9:34:26 GMT The Bishop said:

Tories would have lost the seat in S Staffs if Labour hadn't stood - its not often you can say such a thing totally definitively, but I think you can here.

And despite that narrow hold I would say it was still a poor result for the Tories overall and doesn't indicate much of a recovery. N Warwickshire was better and arguably does, but it remains a significant swing away from them compared to the 2019 result - in a part of the country that has moved hugely against Labour in recent years. All told the 2023 elections have the potential to be grim for them, especially if you expect any "new PM" honeymoon to be well over by then.

That assumes that there will be that sort of honeymoon, particularly if they choose Liz Truss, who I can't see inspiring that sort of enthusiasm outside those who are sticking with the Tories anyway.
I can understand why Labour stood a candidate, because while the ward has hardly any support it is in a reasonably marginal seat where Labour will need to maximise its vote in a general election. Not putting up a candidate may make LibDem voting a default in that ward.

Quite right, and I'd do the same in reverse.

It's just a near miss, that's all, they happen.

[timmullen1]

Jul 22, 2022 9:54:06 GMT Merseymike said:

Jul 22, 2022 9:47:05 GMT The Bishop said:

Truss is seeing her ratings improve a bit (the familiar "halo effect" of being confirmed as the plausible next PM) and I expect there will be a bit of a Tory bounce whether she or Sunak wins. It will likely be some way from the transformative effect Johnson had, though.

Could be. But she has more than a month to mess up and I don't see Sunak playing the nice guy. I don't think he has a lot of time for her.

Are her ratings increasing among those who intend to vote Tory anyway?

It was suggested that she has less than a month to mess up - ballot papers go out on 1 August, and in the Johnson-Hunt contest over 75% voted online, with the majority being returned within 48 hours (is the reason used by Gullis on Radio Stoke yesterday for reducing this stage to two weeks from next Monday).

[agbutler]

I think it is inevitable that the Tories will get some form of bounce when the new leader is in place, whether that remains when they actually have to start governing is another matter.

[J.G.Harston]

Jul 21, 2022 22:59:04 GMT BucksDucks said:

Jul 21, 2022 22:51:38 GMT Adam in Stroud said:

Buggerbuggerbugger.

Actually a decent result in a ward we haven't even stood in for ages, but still deeply frustrating. Bar charts draw themselves next time, I suppose.

Bit of a nearly week. Two good results that were frustratingly close to great results. At least it gives platforms to build off.

Wouldn't it be better to build *on* the platform?

[The Bishop]

Meanwhile the Morecambe result follows previous recent ones (including some at TC level) which suggest the LibDems are taking advantage of the (possibly terminal) decline of the previously strong localist Independents. What effect, if any, that will have on the next GE there remains to be seen.

[John Chanin]

Jul 22, 2022 11:18:18 GMT The Bishop said:

Meanwhile the Morecambe result follows previous recent ones (including some at TC level) which suggest the LibDems are taking advantage of the (possibly terminal) decline of the previously strong localist Independents. What effect, if any, that will have on the next GE there remains to be seen.

I don’t think we have anyone local, but it would be interesting to know what has happened to the Morecambe Bay independents - and indeed what stimulated them in the first place, and why they were successful.  (Everyone hates Lancaster isn’t a sufficient answer).

[timmullen1]

Jul 22, 2022 12:28:43 GMT John Chanin said:

Jul 22, 2022 11:18:18 GMT The Bishop said:

Meanwhile the Morecambe result follows previous recent ones (including some at TC level) which suggest the LibDems are taking advantage of the (possibly terminal) decline of the previously strong localist Independents. What effect, if any, that will have on the next GE there remains to be seen.

I don’t think we have anyone local, but it would be interesting to know what has happened to the Morecambe Bay independents - and indeed what stimulated them in the first place, and why they were successful.  (Everyone hates Lancaster isn’t a sufficient answer).

I think the original motivation for the MBI was, as andrewteale has alluded to in his previews, some of the more touristy areas have become quite run down - two closed amusement parks I think - and that probably generated a sense that the town wasn’t getting enough attention from the mainstream parties. However some completed investment (the regenerated Midland Hotel) and the likely setting of an Eden Project North, may have taken away some of their raison d’aitre.