Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on May 16, 2022 11:01:41 GMT
BRECKLAND DC; Mattishall (Con resigned)
Candidates:
COGHAM, Kendra (Labour)
OECHSLE, Maggie (Independent)
PLUMMER, Paul Jonathan (Conservative)
2019: Con 931, 894; Ind 556; Lab 508
2015: Con 1552, 1518; Lab 848, 640; UKIP 680
Current Council: Con 34; Lab 6; Ind Grp 4; Grn 2; Ind 1; 2 vacancies.
CRAWLEY DC; Southgate (Lab resigned)
Candidates:
KAIL, Richard Martin (Green)
NOYCE, Bob (Labour)
TARRANT, Jan (Conservative)
2022: Lab 1094; Con 927; LD 185; Grn 144
2021: Con 1139; Lab 1069; Grn 167; LD 137
2019: Lab 1065, 1017, 999; Con 856, 775, 722; LD 301
Vacancy is for the 2019-2023 term. Jan Tarrant was the Conservative candidate this year.
Current Council: Lab 18; Con 17; 1 vacancy (so Labour need to hold the seat to retain an overall majority)
SEVENOAKS DC; Penshurst, Fordcombe & Chiddingstone (Con resigned)
Candidates:
BUTCHER, Ian (Conservative)
STREATFEILD, Richard Giles (Liberal Democrat)
2019: Con unopp.
Aug 17by: Con 438, LD 253; Lab 54
2015: Con 790; LD 501; Grn 191
2011: Con unopp
2007: Con 574; LD 392
2003: Con 442; Lab 186
Richard Streatfeild was the the Lib Dem candidate in 2015 and the 2017by-election.
Current Council: Con 45; Ind 3; LD 3; Lab 1; Not specified 1; 1 vacancy
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Post by phil156 on Jun 7, 2022 9:35:20 GMT
CRAWLEY & SEVENOAKS count on Thursday, BRECKLAND is on Friday
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ricmk
Lib Dem
Posts: 2,615 
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Post by ricmk on Jun 9, 2022 17:33:03 GMT
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Post by andrewteale on Jun 9, 2022 22:41:00 GMT
Reported that the Liberal Democrats have gained Penshurst, Fordcombe and Chiddingstone.
EDIT: LD 343 C 288
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timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823
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Post by timmullen1 on Jun 9, 2022 22:46:48 GMT
Reported that the Liberal Democrats have gained Penshurst, Fordcombe and Chiddingstone. EDIT: LD 343 C 288 Turnout 32.81% |
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Post by batman on Jun 9, 2022 23:19:40 GMT
come on Crawley get on with it
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Post by phil156 on Jun 9, 2022 23:24:36 GMT
come on Crawley get on with it I was just thinking that too, mind you it did have the biggest vote last time out of the three |
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Post by andrewteale on Jun 9, 2022 23:47:35 GMT
Lab hold Crawley, Southgate
Lab 938 C 790 Grn 144
(from the Leader of the Council's twitter:
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Post by batman on Jun 9, 2022 23:54:17 GMT
Green vote exactly the same numerically as in May
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Post by johnloony on Jun 10, 2022 0:09:27 GMT
Green vote exactly the same numerically as in May I wonder how many of the 144 are the same people. I stood in 3 by-elections in Bensham Manor ward in Croydon in 1996, 2004 and 2007. I got 25, 44 and 15 votes respectively. I have often wondered what a Venn diagram of those voters would be like. |
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Post by nobodyimportant on Jun 10, 2022 9:31:39 GMT
Con hold in Breckland
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Post by andrewp on Jun 10, 2022 9:35:10 GMT
That’s a slight surprise. I hadn’t realised that the resigning councillor had endorsed the Independent candidate. |
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Post by yellowperil on Jun 10, 2022 9:46:48 GMT
That’s a slight surprise. I hadn’t realised that the resigning councillor had endorsed the Independent candidate. Kiss of death, maybe? Might not have helped persuading potential Labour voters, at least? To win this one you probably needed more Labour voters to lend their votes to defeat the Tory. |
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Post by MeirionGwril on Jun 10, 2022 9:59:33 GMT
pity
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timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823
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Post by timmullen1 on Jun 10, 2022 10:06:14 GMT
That’s a slight surprise. I hadn’t realised that the resigning councillor had endorsed the Independent candidate. Kiss of death, maybe? Might not have helped persuading potential Labour voters, at least? To win this one you probably needed more Labour voters to lend their votes to defeat the Tory. Andrew’s Preview indicated that the resigning councillor had expressed some disillusionment with Party politics in his resignation statement, so the endorsement’s maybe not so surprising, but it seems he maybe didn’t have enough of a personal vote to carry the Independent over the line. |
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Post by jamesdoyle on Jun 10, 2022 10:11:42 GMT
GWBWI
LDm +65
Lab +43
Grn +1
Con -143
This is the worst weekly Con score so far this municipal year. Sevenoaks on its own would have outscored every week so far.
Adjusted Seat Value
LDm +1.1
Lab +0.7
Grn +0.0
Con -2.4
This is based on the 2021-22 GWBWI data for the value of seats for the defending party, which gives an average value of 60. This should not be expected to total to the actual seats fought - because each party has a different value for the same seat. It's experimental at the moment, so we'll see how it goes.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 10, 2022 10:11:42 GMT
Its still a significant swing against the Tories compared with the 2019 result.
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Post by bigfatron on Jun 10, 2022 10:14:59 GMT
I believe that's the first Tory hold in nine defences since 5th May?
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ricmk
Lib Dem
Posts: 2,615
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Post by ricmk on Jun 10, 2022 10:15:18 GMT
All hail Paul Plummer, the first Conservative by-election candidate to win a seat since March 31st. (Yes I know there were a load elected in by-elections alongside the elections on May 5th but that's just inconvenient data, and we all ignore data points we don't like.)
True electoral dynamite. I still reckon he needed the split opposition to get over the line though. Indy would have clearly won as the only other candidate - probably a stretch to say that Labour could have won in a two horse race though.
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Post by andrewp on Jun 10, 2022 10:21:38 GMT
I believe that's the first Tory hold in nine defences since 5th May? Seven I think. |
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