That’s a slight surprise. I hadn’t realised that the resigning councillor had endorsed the Independent candidate.
Kiss of death, maybe? Might not have helped persuading potential Labour voters, at least? To win this one you probably needed more Labour voters to lend their votes to defeat the Tory.
Andrew’s Preview indicated that the resigning councillor had expressed some disillusionment with Party politics in his resignation statement, so the endorsement’s maybe not so surprising, but it seems he maybe didn’t have enough of a personal vote to carry the Independent over the line.
This is the worst weekly Con score so far this municipal year. Sevenoaks on its own would have outscored every week so far.
Adjusted Seat Value
LDm +1.1 Lab +0.7 Grn +0.0 Con -2.4
This is based on the 2021-22 GWBWI data for the value of seats for the defending party, which gives an average value of 60. This should not be expected to total to the actual seats fought - because each party has a different value for the same seat. It's experimental at the moment, so we'll see how it goes.
All hail Paul Plummer, the first Conservative by-election candidate to win a seat since March 31st. (Yes I know there were a load elected in by-elections alongside the elections on May 5th but that's just inconvenient data, and we all ignore data points we don't like.)
True electoral dynamite. I still reckon he needed the split opposition to get over the line though. Indy would have clearly won as the only other candidate - probably a stretch to say that Labour could have won in a two horse race though.