wallington
Green
The Pride of Croydon 2022 award winner
Posts: 1,321 
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Post by wallington on Jun 24, 2022 8:19:12 GMT
Clearly an excellent LD result but one concern for future by-elections where the LDs are the clear challenger to a Tory is the relative resistance of the Green vote to be squeezed here. Green 3.8% in 2019 => 2.5% (Labour 19.5% => 3.7%) A refusal of some Greens to take an opportunity to bloody the nose of a Tory could cost the LDs some other potential gains. I expect some sharp mind is refining the LDs' third-party squeeze messaging. I've seen this in several places. A large portion of the Green vote is fiercely tribal. But, in a place like Mid Devon, could it not be that that the Lib Dems did win a good chunk of those that voted Green at the last General Election and the Green vote in the by-election may have come from environmentally minded normally Conservative voters protesting against the Government? Just a thought, obviously based on nothing. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jun 24, 2022 8:28:07 GMT
If I was the Labour candidate in Mid Devon I would be pretty happy about this result. Why? |
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Post by grahammurray on Jun 24, 2022 8:30:43 GMT
A very impressive result, but a catastrophe for the Lib Dems' internal polling department, 15 points out again! I think they will be sacked. Opinion polls are a snapshot, not a prediction. Isn't that the mantra? |
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neilm
Non-Aligned
Posts: 25,023
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Post by neilm on Jun 24, 2022 8:31:32 GMT
Now says 1987... And bearing in mind this is the BBC South West political editor, he's quite right in that definition of South West as Christchurch of course falls under the BBC South region. Most people would think (if they think anything) of the government regions in the abscence of anything different being indicated. Literally no one in the actual south west genuinely considers Christchurch (and definitely not Midlands cities like Bristol, Gloucester, and Salisbury) to be part of the south west. You're Up North by Taunton. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jun 24, 2022 8:32:36 GMT
Don't you dare call me Midlands again!
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Post by aargauer on Jun 24, 2022 8:39:05 GMT
Most people would think (if they think anything) of the government regions in the abscence of anything different being indicated. Literally no one in the actual south west genuinely considers Christchurch (and definitely not Midlands cities like Bristol, Gloucester, and Salisbury) to be part of the south west. You're Up North by Taunton. Salisbury is the home of the man I consider the archetypal westcountry man, ex time team archeologist Phil Harding. Are you seriously telling me this man is not from the south west. Long straggly hair - check Silly hat - check Ooh Arr accent - check Slightly lopsided smile - check |
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Post by cherrycoffin on Jun 24, 2022 8:48:42 GMT
Biggest swing against a Government ever remains Christchurch. I wonder who was the candidate? I retain the record! I grew up in Christchurch but wasn’t alive at the time of the by-election and I’ve always struggled to understand how it went so strongly towards the Lib Dems. Was it a combination of the Tory government being so incredibly unpopular, local factors, a good Lib Dem candidate or something else? My grandparents never gave me particularly satisfactory answers beyond “she was a wonderful lady”. And also, on a personal note and if you don’t mind sharing, how does one deal with losing so resoundingly when defending a seat, even if a defeat was semi-expected? |
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r34t
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,150
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Post by r34t on Jun 24, 2022 8:50:20 GMT
Clearly an excellent LD result but one concern for future by-elections where the LDs are the clear challenger to a Tory is the relative resistance of the Green vote to be squeezed here. Green 3.8% in 2019 => 2.5% (Labour 19.5% => 3.7%) A refusal of some Greens to take an opportunity to bloody the nose of a Tory could cost the LDs some other potential gains. I expect some sharp mind is refining the LDs' third-party squeeze messaging. I've seen this in several places. A large portion of the Green vote is fiercely tribal. Many of the Corbinista left decamped from Labour to the Greens. They would never vote LibDem. |
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Post by Rutlander on Jun 24, 2022 8:51:47 GMT
Literally no one in the actual south west genuinely considers Christchurch (and definitely not Midlands cities like Bristol, Gloucester, and Salisbury) to be part of the south west. You're Up North by Taunton. Salisbury is the home of the man I consider the archetypal westcountry man, ex time team archeologist Phil Harding. Are you seriously telling me this man is not from the south west While he sounds like an "archetypal westcountry man" now, I remember a radio clip of him as a boy when he sounded like an typical public schoolboy (or was it just 1960s grammar school?) |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Jun 24, 2022 8:54:39 GMT
At this rate about half the Lib Dem parliamentary party will end up being by election winners At this rate we might get a bit closer to gender parity.  |
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Post by aargauer on Jun 24, 2022 8:56:41 GMT
While he sounds like an "archetypal westcountry man" now, I remember a radio clip of him as a boy when he sounded like an typical public schoolboy (or was it just 1960s grammar school?) Jeremy Clarkson is another who has gotten distinctly less posh over time. |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Jun 24, 2022 9:00:50 GMT
While he sounds like an "archetypal westcountry man" now, I remember a radio clip of him as a boy when he sounded like an typical public schoolboy (or was it just 1960s grammar school?) Jeremy Clarkson is another who has gotten distinctly less posh over time. The classic example of that is the violin bloke, whose name - you will have realised - I am struggling . . . Nigel Kennedy. |
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Post by Rutlander on Jun 24, 2022 9:09:22 GMT
Even members of the Royal Family have. William and 'arry have acquired elements of estuary and compare HMQ now with how clipped she sounded in the 1950s.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,694
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 24, 2022 9:13:22 GMT
It was so obviously expectation management from the LDs on here & elsewhere. There never was any serious doubt that they would win and I'm surprised that anyone on this forum predicted a Tory win in the constituency (even more so that some managed to do so in Wakefield where even a modest application of the national opinion polls pointed to a Labour gain). Even so, I did somewhat underestimate the scale of their victory & regretted not predicting a bigger one. Well there was the fact the Tory campaign wasn't the total washout it was in N Shropshire, and their candidate appeared a better byelection fit at least on paper. And they still got royally pumped - no massive surprise that Dowden has taken the rap really. |
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,687
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Post by Chris from Brum on Jun 24, 2022 9:24:37 GMT
Jeremy Clarkson is another who has gotten distinctly less posh over time. The classic example of that is the violin bloke, whose name - you will have realised - I am struggling . . . Nigel Kennedy. When he was at the Menuhin School, he was a nicely-spoken young man with brushed hair. Then he discovered Aston Villa and punk ... at 64, he's actually older than me, though I struggle with that fact. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,694
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 24, 2022 9:30:24 GMT
If I was the Labour candidate in Mid Devon I would be pretty happy about this result. Why? Apart from anything else the LibDems will now surely now be concentrating resources in this seat (or its successor) at the next GE. Thus leaving Labour more of a free hand in the above seat (or its successor) |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 24, 2022 9:38:56 GMT
Apart from anything else the LibDems will now surely now be concentrating resources in this seat (or its successor) at the next GE. Thus leaving Labour more of a free hand in the above seat (or its successor) There is no 'Mid Devon' seat. Mid Devon district is mostly in this constituency. If you're talking about Central Devon, it was already the case that there are nearby seats where the Lib Dems will be concentrating more effort (North Devon, Newton Abbott etc). Labour's overperformance in Central Devon at the last couple of general elections has been remarked upon here, but the notion they might actually win there is for the birds |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,694
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 24, 2022 9:40:48 GMT
Apart from anything else the LibDems will now surely now be concentrating resources in this seat (or its successor) at the next GE. Thus leaving Labour more of a free hand in the above seat (or its successor) There is no 'Mid Devon' seat. Mid Devon district is mostly in this constituency. If you're talking about Central Devon, it was already the case that there are nearby seats where the Lib Dems will be concentrating more effort (North Devon, Newton Abbott etc). Labour's overperformance in Central Devon at the last couple of general elections has been remarked upon here, but the notion they might actually win there is for the birdsInsert the words "next time" there, and I would agree. And it was originally cogload's mistake, not mine  |
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Post by andrewp on Jun 24, 2022 9:41:28 GMT
Apart from anything else the LibDems will now surely now be concentrating resources in this seat (or its successor) at the next GE. Thus leaving Labour more of a free hand in the above seat (or its successor) On the same grounds if I was the Conservative MP for North Devon or Taunton I might have a silver lining to my dark cloud that there will be some Lib Dem effort diverted to Tiverton and Honiton now. |
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Post by Merseymike on Jun 24, 2022 9:44:55 GMT
Apart from anything else the LibDems will now surely now be concentrating resources in this seat (or its successor) at the next GE. Thus leaving Labour more of a free hand in the above seat (or its successor) On the same grounds if I was the Conservative MP for North Devon or Taunton I might have a silver lining to my dark cloud that there will be some Lib Dem effort diverted to Tiverton and Honiton now. But if the LibDems are going to win any of these seats at a general election, it will rely on their development of locally based activists - these places are really not very accessible! What this might to do is help that process |
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