|
|
Post by batman on Jun 24, 2022 6:51:17 GMT
It was so obviously expectation management from the LDs on here & elsewhere. There never was any serious doubt that they would win and I'm surprised that anyone on this forum predicted a Tory win in the constituency (even more so that some managed to do so in Wakefield where even a modest application of the national opinion polls pointed to a Labour gain). Even so, I did somewhat underestimate the scale of their victory & regretted not predicting a bigger one.
|
|
|
|
Post by stb12 on Jun 24, 2022 7:10:01 GMT
At this rate about half the Lib Dem parliamentary party will end up being by election winners
|
|
|
|
Post by robert1 on Jun 24, 2022 7:10:32 GMT
Biggest swing against a Government ever remains Christchurch. I wonder who was the candidate?
I retain the record!
|
|
|
|
Post by froome on Jun 24, 2022 7:15:33 GMT
Biggest swing against a Government ever remains Christchurch. I wonder who was the candidate? I retain the record! Good to see one Conservative still smiling.  |
|
|
|
Post by iainbhx on Jun 24, 2022 7:21:00 GMT
Biggest swing against a Government ever remains Christchurch. I wonder who was the candidate? I retain the record! I really felt for you in that one. It was clear that you were a very decent Conservative, a good successor to Robert Adley and certainly a far better man than what the denizens of Christchurch eventually got from the Conservative party. However, as I was knocking on doors, it was absolutely clear that the people of Christchurch were going to hand out an immense kicking to a Government they had enough of because they could with no consequence. |
|
|
|
Post by aargauer on Jun 24, 2022 7:25:00 GMT
Biggest swing against a Government ever remains Christchurch. I wonder who was the candidate? I retain the record! Talk about a hospital pass! |
|
johng
Labour
Posts: 4,796 
|
Post by johng on Jun 24, 2022 7:28:20 GMT
It was so obviously expectation management from the LDs on here & elsewhere. There never was any serious doubt that they would win and I'm surprised that anyone on this forum predicted a Tory win in the constituency (even more so that some managed to do so in Wakefield where even a modest application of the national opinion polls pointed to a Labour gain). Even so, I did somewhat underestimate the scale of their victory & regretted not predicting a bigger one. They put out the same talking points every by-election when they are ahead.
Though you wouldn't expect them to say anything other than it's close tbf.
|
|
|
|
Post by Rutlander on Jun 24, 2022 7:29:45 GMT
Clearly an excellent LD result but one concern for future by-elections where the LDs are the clear challenger to a Tory is the relative resistance of the Green vote to be squeezed here.
Green 3.8% in 2019 => 2.5%
(Labour 19.5% => 3.7%)
A refusal of some Greens to take an opportunity to bloody the nose of a Tory could cost the LDs some other potential gains. I expect some sharp mind is refining the LDs' third-party squeeze messaging.
|
|
|
|
Post by aargauer on Jun 24, 2022 7:32:30 GMT
Easy Lib Dem gain, easy Conservative regain at the general slack water |
|
cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,134
|
Post by cogload on Jun 24, 2022 7:34:02 GMT
If I was the Labour candidate in Mid Devon I would be pretty happy about this result.
|
|
|
|
Post by robert1 on Jun 24, 2022 7:34:24 GMT
Biggest swing against a Government ever remains Christchurch. I wonder who was the candidate? I retain the record! I really felt for you in that one. It was clear that you were a very decent Conservative, a good successor to Robert Adley and certainly a far better man than what the denizens of Christchurch eventually got from the Conservative party. However, as I was knocking on doors, it was absolutely clear that the people of Christchurch were going to hand out an immense kicking to a Government they had enough of because they could with no consequence. I have posted a like but I feel I should write a post and say 'thank you' for such generous comments. |
|
|
|
Post by nobodyimportant on Jun 24, 2022 7:36:51 GMT
At this rate about half the Lib Dem parliamentary party will end up being by election winners Are you counting Sarah Olney in that? |
|
|
|
Post by stb12 on Jun 24, 2022 7:41:20 GMT
At this rate about half the Lib Dem parliamentary party will end up being by election winners Are you counting Sarah Olney in that? My mind was more going towards there being three already in this Parliament with it still possibly having two and a half years to go if the election isn’t called before it needs to be. But yes considering by-elections in other parliaments being the first entry I’d forgotten about Olney |
|
|
|
Post by woollyliberal on Jun 24, 2022 7:41:25 GMT
Clearly an excellent LD result but one concern for future by-elections where the LDs are the clear challenger to a Tory is the relative resistance of the Green vote to be squeezed here. Green 3.8% in 2019 => 2.5% (Labour 19.5% => 3.7%) A refusal of some Greens to take an opportunity to bloody the nose of a Tory could cost the LDs some other potential gains. I expect some sharp mind is refining the LDs' third-party squeeze messaging. I've seen this in several places. A large portion of the Green vote is fiercely tribal. |
|
iang
Lib Dem
Posts: 1,786
|
Post by iang on Jun 24, 2022 7:47:51 GMT
There does genuinely seem to have been a feeling that this one would be a lot harder for various reasons, not least the absence of obvious "own goals" that affected the Tory performance in North Shropshire. There was a feeling that NS had been a "perfect storm" from our perspective, and one that was unlikely to repeat itself. There was also apparently little data to work on to begin with, partly because a lot of the council divisions are not fought in partisan terms, and there were no marked registers. So in terms of the general party (those on the inside may have known different of course by the end), there was a real concern that we were going to get a good result (a good second) that would look like a failure in comparison with the 2 previous by-election wins. But - all turned out OK in the end for us obviously, but genuinely, there was much less assumption this time that it inevitably would.
|
|
|
|
Post by willpower3 on Jun 24, 2022 7:53:34 GMT
Clearly an excellent LD result but one concern for future by-elections where the LDs are the clear challenger to a Tory is the relative resistance of the Green vote to be squeezed here. Green 3.8% in 2019 => 2.5% (Labour 19.5% => 3.7%) A refusal of some Greens to take an opportunity to bloody the nose of a Tory could cost the LDs some other potential gains. I expect some sharp mind is refining the LDs' third-party squeeze messaging. I've seen this in several places. A large portion of the Green vote is fiercely tribal. Some of the Green vote will also be general protest rather than loyalty to the Greens. They are by far the most visible party other than the bigger three in England. |
|
|
|
Post by evergreenadam on Jun 24, 2022 8:04:23 GMT
An excellent Lib Dem result. Of course there’s a large Tory abstention and some Labour “lent” votes will unwind in a general election (regardless of any informal pact). However I assume the candidate was well-chosen. He will be expected to spend little time in Westminster. His task will be to solidify his local coalition, broaden it if possible and maintain an extremely high local profile. Careful credit/debit management with the council will help. He might hold on. If the boundary change proposals remain as they are, then Tiverton would transfer out and Ottery St Mary and Sidmouth would transfer in to create a new Honiton seat. Looking at the 2021 county council election results, the Tories were well ahead in the former but faced some stiff challenges from the East Devon independents in the latter. So he may well have scope to broaden the coalition. |
|
|
|
Post by WestCountryRadical on Jun 24, 2022 8:06:42 GMT
A very impressive result, but a catastrophe for the Lib Dems' internal polling department, 15 points out again! I think they will be sacked.
|
|
|
|
Post by yellowperil on Jun 24, 2022 8:10:23 GMT
Most people will look at the seismic shift in the votes here in terms of percentages, and that is right of course, but sometimes looking at the raw numbers can be amusing. The Conservatives had a lead over the LDs from 2019 of 27,086, and turned that into a deficit of 6144, so a shift of 33,230. I am now wondering just how many parliamentary seats the Lib Dem deficit behind the Conservatives is more than 33,020.  |
|
|
|
Post by willpower3 on Jun 24, 2022 8:17:02 GMT
A very impressive result, but a catastrophe for the Lib Dems' internal polling department, 15 points out again! I think they will be sacked. It went exactly as planned. |
|
