|
|
Post by evergreenadam on May 12, 2022 22:42:20 GMT
A few years ago I knew the area of the Waverley by-election pretty well- Frensham a bit as walking country, and particularly Tilford where my son used to play , and my then daughter-in- law scored, for the village cricket team. He still has a nice water colour on his walls at home of a match in progress at Tilford- an absolutely stereotypical English summer scene. It would have been difficult to envisage Tilford as anything but very traditional Tory -it was the scene I conjured up in my mind when I heard John Major's sentimental waffle about spinsters cycling to church, etc, all those years ago. It would be really splendid to see that area go Green- it's the way a lot of such quintessential English places are going that were once the bedrock of Toryism-Chilham in my own patch is another such. The problem for the Tories now, is that they are no longer the traditional party. Out doorknocking in Hindhead this evening (next door to Frensham/Churt) once again I was coming up against "lifelong traditional" Tories insisting that they cannot vote for the present lot, and other traditional swing voters put off by "lies". The same happened in the 1992-97 Parliament. |
|
|
|
Post by agbutler on May 12, 2022 22:45:15 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by jm on May 12, 2022 22:46:17 GMT
Peacehaven West is a Labour gain.
|
|
|
|
Post by Adam in Stroud on May 12, 2022 23:00:07 GMT
Peacehaven West is a Labour gain |
|
maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,299 
|
Post by maxque on May 12, 2022 23:04:32 GMT
It's quite clear the scatter of last time was caused, at least in part, by uncertainty over which party was the efficient anti-Conservative vote.
|
|
carlton43
Reform Party
Posts: 50,887
Member is Online
|
Post by carlton43 on May 12, 2022 23:23:51 GMT
Peacehaven West is a Labour gain. Congratulations on a magnificent win from previous no show. Conservative vote held up but you made the heavy squeeze. Well done. |
|
|
|
Post by yellowperil on May 12, 2022 23:37:17 GMT
Lewes: Peaceavon West - Labour gain| Party | 2022 votes | 2022 share | since 2019 "top" | since 2019 "average" | | Labour | Row 2 column 2 | Row 2 column 3 | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Conservative | Row 3 column 2 | Row 3 column 3 | Row 3 column 4 | Row 3 column 5 | | Green | Row 4 column 2 | Row 4 column 3 | Row 4 column 4 | Row 4 column 5 | | Liberal Democrat | Row 5 column 2 | Row 5 column 3 | Row 5 column 4 | Row 5 column 5 | | Independent |
|
| -21.4% | -18.0% | | UKIP |
|
| -18.4% | -19.0% | | Total votes | Row 8 column 2 |
| Row 8 column 4 | Row 8 column 5 |
Swing: not meaningful Council now: 18 Conservative, 9 Liberal Democrat, 8 Green, 4 Labour, 2 Independent Group Waverley: Frensham, Dockenfield & Tilford - Independent gain| Party | 2022 votes | 2022 share | since 2019 "top" | since 2019 "average" | 2015 result | | Independent | Row 2 column 2 | Row 2 column 3 | Row 2 column 4 | Row 2 column 5 |
| | Green | Row 3 column 2 | Row 3 column 3 | Row 3 column 4 | Row 3 column 5 |
| | Conservative | Row 4 column 2 | Row 4 column 3 | Row 4 column 4 | Row 4 column 5 | unopposed | | Labour |
|
| -16.7% | -17.3% |
| | Total votes | Row 6 column 2 |
| Row 6 column 4 | Row 6 column 5 |
|
Swing: not meaningful Council now: 20 Conservative, 15 Liberal democrat, 15 Farnham Residents, 2 Labour, 2 Green, 2 Independent, 1 vacancy Think you meant to say Peacehaven. Maybe everyone is getting just a bit election-weary? |
|
|
|
Post by yellowperil on May 12, 2022 23:47:46 GMT
It's quite clear the scatter of last time was caused, at least in part, by uncertainty over which party was the efficient anti-Conservative vote. Was that comment about Peacehaven?I guess so, particularly as Labour weren't standing last time. It probably comes down to which party has the stomach for a full-on campaign at this stage, What is clear is that the electorate want to kick the Tories with the best weapon at their disposal. At Frensham this time it wasn't so clear-cut , and they went for the Anti-Tory Tory! |
|
|
|
Post by matureleft on May 13, 2022 3:42:55 GMT
An extremely impressive Labour result. I thought they’d fall short. The.Tory is youthful, local and had defeated Labour fairly easily in a straight fight on those boundaries last year. As I hinted neither of the other candidates looked particularly strong. Russell Moyle personally (who was pretty visible in the Rottingdean Coastal campaign and I’d guess here) and his team have clearly decided to work the Lewes end of the constituency. Anyone looking at the housing in this seat wouldn’t imagine it would be Labour but the demographics must be shifting fast.
|
|
|
|
Post by jamesdoyle on May 13, 2022 6:34:17 GMT
Peacehaven, via Lloyd Russell-Moyle
Labour 641, Con 467, Green 32, LibDem 32.
|
|
|
|
Post by andrewp on May 13, 2022 6:39:06 GMT
I thought the Independent would win in Frensham as I’m afraid he looked like the non Asian local Tory alternative. I let some of the Green comments on here affect my prediction.
|
|
|
|
Post by andrewp on May 13, 2022 6:41:15 GMT
Frensham numbers
Ind 492
Green 354
Con 323
|
|
|
|
Post by batman on May 13, 2022 6:54:12 GMT
An extremely impressive Labour result. I thought they’d fall short. The.Tory is youthful, local and had defeated Labour fairly easily in a straight fight on those boundaries last year. As I hinted neither of the other candidates looked particularly strong. Russell Moyle personally (who was pretty visible in the Rottingdean Coastal campaign and I’d guess here) and his team have clearly decided to work the Lewes end of the constituency. Anyone looking at the housing in this seat wouldn’t imagine it would be Labour but the demographics must be shifting fast. Although in the 1995 local elections, although winning only one of the 3 wards in the town, Labour outpolled the Tories in Peacehaven, so this isn't unprecendented. There had been a reasonable degree of Labour support in some previous elections too although victories were rare. |
|
|
|
Post by matureleft on May 13, 2022 7:14:50 GMT
An extremely impressive Labour result. I thought they’d fall short. The.Tory is youthful, local and had defeated Labour fairly easily in a straight fight on those boundaries last year. As I hinted neither of the other candidates looked particularly strong. Russell Moyle personally (who was pretty visible in the Rottingdean Coastal campaign and I’d guess here) and his team have clearly decided to work the Lewes end of the constituency. Anyone looking at the housing in this seat wouldn’t imagine it would be Labour but the demographics must be shifting fast. Although in the 1995 local elections, although winning only one of the 3 wards in the town, Labour outpolled the Tories in Peacehaven, so this isn't unprecendented. There had been a reasonable degree of Labour support in some previous elections too although victories were rare. Fair point. 1995 was annus mirabilis for Labour in which we won in some unlikely places. The problem has possibly been getting a sustainable team of activists in a community that must be seen as on the fringe of the constituency and in a local government area where Labour has been a pretty minor party. (However if they were to win all the East Saltdean, Telscombe and Peacehaven seats they’d have a useful bloc). The fundamentals of that area will alter its economy and its politics. It’s close to Brighton with decent public transport. The housing is much cheaper than Brighton per sq ft and you can park a car. Yes, it’s bungalow territory, but those can be adapted for a more general use. There’s a sea view in places and good access to the countryside. The retail offer is currently pretty modest but that will change. And Brighton has an effect. My partner, in the West Midlands, was a Tory. Moving to Brighton (Saltdean - just down the road) she’s gently moved left (for other reasons as well of course) and, to her surprise and mine, voted Labour in the Rottingdean Coastal by-election on 5 May. |
|
|
|
Post by evergreenadam on May 13, 2022 7:18:11 GMT
An extremely impressive Labour result. I thought they’d fall short. The.Tory is youthful, local and had defeated Labour fairly easily in a straight fight on those boundaries last year. As I hinted neither of the other candidates looked particularly strong. Russell Moyle personally (who was pretty visible in the Rottingdean Coastal campaign and I’d guess here) and his team have clearly decided to work the Lewes end of the constituency. Anyone looking at the housing in this seat wouldn’t imagine it would be Labour but the demographics must be shifting fast. Property prices are low there compared to other parts of the East Sussex coast and there are fixer uppers to be bought, so maybe changing to a young family demographic. And as an aside I can’t understand why Seaford is so expensive! |
|
|
|
Post by yellowperil on May 13, 2022 7:28:34 GMT
An extremely impressive Labour result. I thought they’d fall short. The.Tory is youthful, local and had defeated Labour fairly easily in a straight fight on those boundaries last year. As I hinted neither of the other candidates looked particularly strong. Russell Moyle personally (who was pretty visible in the Rottingdean Coastal campaign and I’d guess here) and his team have clearly decided to work the Lewes end of the constituency. Anyone looking at the housing in this seat wouldn’t imagine it would be Labour but the demographics must be shifting fast. Property prices are low there compared to other parts of the East Sussex coast and there are fixer uppers to be bought, so maybe changing to a young family demographic. And as an aside I can’t understand why Seaford is so expensive!It's much nicer than most places along that coast, including a lot of the more expensive ones? |
|
|
|
Post by froome on May 13, 2022 7:32:27 GMT
I thought the Independent would win in Frensham as I’m afraid he looked like the non Asian local Tory alternative. I let some of the Green comments on here affect my prediction. Tbf none of those comments came from any of the Greens here (unless I missed them on another thread). The one local Terry Weldon seemed optimistic, and it was good to see Lib Dems and Greens working co-operatively here, but my instinct was the same as yours, that in such a bedrock of Torydom, any hint of an alternative Conservative voice that had a local profile and was locally popular would be difficult for us to beat. |
|
|
|
Post by middleenglander on May 13, 2022 7:55:03 GMT
Lewes: Peacehaven West - Labour gain| Party | 2022 votes | 2022 share | since 2019 "top" | since 2019 "average" | | Labour | 641 | 54.7% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Conservative | 467 | 39.8% | +13.8% | +12.0% | | Green | 32 | 2.7% | -14.8% | -13.7% | | Liberal Democrat | 32 | 2.7% | -13.8% | -15.1% | | Independent |
|
| -21.4% | -18.0% | | UKIP |
|
| -18.4% | -19.9% | | Total votes | 1,172 |
| 93% | 100% |
Swing: not meaningful Council now: 18 Conservative, 9 Liberal Democrat, 8 Green, 4 Labour, 2 Independent Group Waverley: Frensham, Dockenfield & Tilford - Independent gain| Party | 2022 votes | 2022 share | since 2019 "top" | since 2019 "average" | 2015 result | | Independent | 492 | 42.1% | from nowhere | from nowhere |
| | Green | 354 | 30.3% | -3.0% | -4.2% |
| | Conservative | 323 | 27.6% | -22.4% | -20.6% | unopposed | | Labour |
|
| -16.7% | -17.3% |
| | Total votes | 1,169
|
| 89% | 89% |
|
Swing: not meaningful Council now: 20 Conservative, 15 Liberal democrat, 15 Farnham Residents, 2 Labour, 2 Green, 2 Independent, 1 vacancy
|
|
Smartie
Labour
Enter your message here...
Posts: 834
|
Post by Smartie on May 13, 2022 11:20:17 GMT
Are these results part of a local trend or a direct result of traditional Tory areas being unhappy with the current Tory party?
|
|
|
|
Post by andrewp on May 13, 2022 11:29:56 GMT
Are these results part of a local trend or a direct result of traditional Tory areas being unhappy with the current Tory party? I would say both are a bit of both, plus the fact that there was a Conservative Independent in Surrey. |
|
